is that he had to go toe-to-toe with Hillary Clinton a number of times, so he's better prepared than he was when he started way back in 2007.  Still, the Democratic debates were held between people who thought that debates were about issues, in front of an audience of primary voters who thought debates were supposed to be about issues.  Debating McCain is a different sort of contest altogether.

McCain will try and make the debate about John McCain.  My hope is that Barack Obama will try and make the debate about the voter and how he relates to the voter (something Clinton was extraordinarily good at), while expressing confidence.  We'll see how well he succeeds at that, but at the very least he'll have his trial-by-fire experience with Hillary to draw on.

This is important. When canvassing I heard several times, "I'm waiting for the debate before I decide." This post is correct. Obama is a thinker and a negotiator. Elsewhere I've commented on his tendency to wander all around a topic, chew it over and finally, finally come up with a very good, even brilliant (and short) answer. Hey there, Obama: BEGIN with the snappy conclusion and only after this opening smart-ass sound-bite answer continue to elaborate. Reverse your usual methodology. This is the American way. This is the only way you have a prayer of getting your message across to the voters. Connect with them first, then do the nuance thing if you must. A debate is not a negotiation and absolutely no community organizing is involved. That will happen after you grab the attention of the all-important third party, i.e., the listeners. Be sure to stay on message, clear, sharp, and to the point.

Debate is a misnomer, generally speaking. It implies you are addressing or answering an opponent directly, the third party or audience is a bystander. This is not the case with today's "debates," where each candidates gives a set-piece answer to the same question (or so the debates usually seem to be run). I am afraid the name "debate" confuses the Democratic candidate in how he/she responds.

Debating is a skill developed out of a certain natural glibness, an ability to hear a proposition and to have a rejoinder immediately spring to mind and straight to the lips.  A good debater has mental agility with which to leap from one issue or point to the other without losing balance.

Obama's a thoughtful, prudent thinker who weighs issues in his mind and tries to come up with the perfect way of expressing his response.  Glib ain't the word for Obama.  He may have the concept in his head, but he's busy picking and choosing words while time flies by.  I don't know if he's capable of reaching the stage where the answer springs fully formed into his head and he runs with it, even though other words might have been better.  It would be better for him if he had a debate coach who could help him come up with and rehearse rejoinders to the issues which he knows are going to come up, and then deliver them with enough verve and apparent spontaneity to impress the audience with the firmness of his response.  

Whatever the debate happens, the economy will contiue to lurch towards total meltdown.

If you watched any of the Republican debates at all, you would say that McCain needs to be worried. He was terrible in those debates - obviously uncomfortable, blinking repeatedly, either fidgeting or holding his arms stiffly with hands folded in front, the same habits that make him hard to watch when he shares the stage with anyone.

That's why McCain wanted to have those "town hall meetings" with Barack Obama. In the town hall setting, McCain can move back and forth and move his eyes around - working off his obvious discomfort.

McCain also gets flustered if he has to elaborate at all on his answers.

Obama's problem in the Democratic debates was that he was TOO good in adding content to his responses and too serious.

I prtedict that it will essentially be a draw - barring McCain mistaking some geographical detail again.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...

Essentially, though we all want to come out of the debates with a boost, they historically over the past several elections haven't made that much difference, and the most any candidate got coming out of them was a few points.

It will be great if Obama wins them, but in the big picture, it's not an automatic game changer if he doesn't.

Josh's analysis is spot on, but the real question is what does Obama need to do to win this debate.

In a sentence, Obama needs to assure people he is tough enough to be president.

I think the key issue on which Obama can win the debate is credibility. The idea of McCain as saying whatever it takes to win has slipped into the political ether. McCai is in an impossible position: he has contradicted himself so much that no matter what he says it will be inconsistent with something he has said or done in the past.

Similarly, McCain has now told so many lies about Obama there is no reason for anyone to believe anything that he says.

Obama can discuss the issues, but he should be ready to challenge McCain often on the issue of truthfulness.  He needs to do so in a way that does not come across as complaining or supplicating in a "stop saying those mean things about me," but one that is not too confrontational either. He needs to figure out how, no matter what McCain says, to respond by saying, "Say whatever you want. You're a transparent liar, and no one even gives a damn what you think anymore, and it's your own damn fault."

If Obama can successfully do that, we might see McCain pitch a fit right there on stage.  

In what has been his very disciplined campaign, a key strategic decision was made to work a 3 debate contest. In the Democratic primary the balancing act Obama needed to negotiate was quite different then the event this Friday. I mean the Democratic primary debating process was too long .... way too long with too many players (at first).

Obama has plenty to say about policy, history and the facts as we know them today.... NO matter the subject.  I think he will be very successful if he keeps to what he's been doing - projecting a thoughtful (yet passionate) - Presidential figure ..... whom you (independents) can trust as an agent of real change - real reform .... for the benefit of the common man .... and the common good.

The pressure in these debates is on John McCain. He is old school, old boy ... and no Maverick.

Using Rovian Concepts of giving 2-3 word phrases to game what some politely call the low information voter :

bush-mccain-90%
bush-mccain-crisis
bush-mccain-endless war

John McCain: Nothing But More of The Same

and predict that Barack absolutely destroys McCain on Friday night. Iraq is McCain's Achilles heel -- his position makes no sense, his call to invade Baghdad on 9/12/2001 shows his true colors, and Obama's position on withdrawing troops has been de facto adopted by the Iraqi government.

Seeing Obama easily handle McCain's sloganeering and nonsense imo will allow Barack to climb a few points higher in the polls as some independents/leaners are assured that he's ready to lead on the world stage.

Friday night is the beginning of the end.  

Anyone given any thought to the two Senators returning to their day jobs in the US Senate to discuss the bailout bill? What if Obama did just that?

Actually, maybe we should kill the darned bailout as it is presently proposed, refusing to be panicked into another stupid surrender of more power to the executive branch just like the Patriot Act, (and in this case to an unelected, appointed partisan hack at that), a piece of legislation loaded with hidden landmines, a Trojan horse of a bill. Bush and his fellow Friedmanite free marketers are slyly using this Wall Street meltdown as a classic Friedman crisis and regard it as an opportunity to further wreck our society in order to cram more free market dogma down our throats... the same crap that got us into this situation in the first place. Naomi Kein (Shock Doctrine) is saying the same thing.

If everything is so dire, why is Warren Buffet pouring billions into Goldman Sachs?  Maybe we should take a deep breath, and think it through---- out of panic mode.

The two are too busy campaigning to be Senators.  This is a job for chairmen, ranking committee members, and the leadership in Congress to hammer out and then whip their respective caucuses into shape.  What would McCain do anyway?  Fly in at that last minute and tell John Cornyn to f*ck himself, perhaps?

The bill presented by Paulson will not pass.  Democrats and Republicans alike have said that is going nowhere.  But hopefully we get something.  Something would be better than nothing.

As far as Buffet goes, he is like the industrial titans of old, like the J.P. Morgan of his time.  He is not called the Oracle of Omaha for nothing.  This appears to me to be a confidence building measure.  It sends a signal to the market like no other single individual can.  Plus, Goldman does not have the same exposure to mortgage securities as the rest of the investment houses; their write-downs have been the lowest of anybody.  They took a beating because the mood is let's throw the baby out with the bath water.  It doesn't mean that we aren't in trouble though.  

And last, I think not everything is a nefarious plot to implement the Chicago School economic model.  Maybe that's what the Shock Doctrine would have you believe, and it is written in a catchy style like that.  But not every action taken by people in power is purposefully to mess up your economic existence.  

Young, bright, quick, informed, good-looking guy against an old, almost-senile, can-hardly-read-the-telepromter, can-hardly-walk, can-hardly-lift-his-arms guy.

Obama will win by the visuals.

Interesting comment Rebecca. You obviously don't work the polls.  Every year that I have worked precinct 4 in the City, the very people you note as in "old, almost senile, can hardly walk" are the ones who show up every election whether it be a City, State or Federal election to vote.  They are of a generation that views voting as an obligation.
They are of a generation that takes military service very seriously. More than a few either served in WWII or lost family members in that war.  Think they may ID with McCain?
Have you talked with any of them? I have. I have an 87 year old retired one star neighbor. Obama is out for him, among other reason, on the "experience" issue.

I agree with you completely, but those people aren't the audience here, because they have made up their mind already.

Drew Westen abd George Lakoff have written detailed blogs coaching Obama.  He would have to be a moron to fail to get their message.  I am looking forward to his castrating the ol' man.

but I think Obama will do just fine. He's got a clarity of thought and speech that John McCain lacks entirely. I am positive that he'll be well prepared and ready to go.  

here are a few reasons for hope:

(1) Obama is taking this debate seriously. He is actually devoting most of this week to preparing for it. In the past it has appeared that he has mainly winged these kinds of events, including Rick Warren's Faith Forum, where his performance was lackluster. He is spending the week in Florida with a reasonable campaign schedule and should be both well prepared substantively and well rested for the Friday evening event.

(2) If we in the blogosphere have been observing week after week that Obama needs to make his points more crisply, with less professorial nuance, and with less stammering, surely his key staffers are sufficiently astute to give him the same advice.

(3) Obama seems to have about a 40 or 50 point IQ advantage on McCain. Even on foreign policy, Obama will display a better understanding of forces at work in the world. He will be unlikely to be factually stumped by a question.

(4) Obama is a good listener and watcher, and he is cool under taunting. The challenge for his staffers will be to encourage him to display more of the "enough is enough" attitude towards McCain's inevitable Big Lie bombast.

(5) McCain, in full desperation mode as his choice of Palin as VP displayed, is still flying around the country campaigning this week. Despite the best efforts of his handlers, McCain could very well lurch into the debate arena weary of body and foggy of mind, thanks in part to his reliance on Ambien, a sleeping potion with numerous nasty side effects. McCain's accelerating cognitive decline has been obvious to all in recent weeks (with the exception of an hour of relative energy and clarity--obviously aided by foreknowledge and preparation--at Rick Warren's Faith Forum). A tired, aged McCain in the midst of cognitive decline and further clouded by his medications could prove to be a ridiculously stationary target during the debate.

(6) A bottom one-percenter at the Naval Academy, McCain is probably simply incapable of absorbing much information in debate preparation. He will memorize a few Republican bumper sticker slogans (as  Palin continues to do for her upcoming debate with Biden) and will try to get by on what he considers to be his unequaled charm. Expect much flashing of his mummy-like rictus of a grin. But if challenged on a factual point or presented with an unexpected question on a topic with which he has little familiarity, McCain will freeze, agonize, stammer, and melt down. He has been having more and more moments lately with that "confused deer-in-the-headlights" look.)

(7) McCain bristles easily. He will make his best effort to play the charming, jocular uncle (while alluding a few times to his nobility for getting shot down by the North Vietnamese and having only one room for a home for five-and-half years), but if his truthfulness and honor are challenged, he could become very testy very quickly. Obama needs to have a few lines in mind to use if McCain actually does "lose it."  And I don't see why Obama should feel any need to be deferential to McCain for McCain's military service. That was then. This is now.

Bottom line? I expect that Obama's debate coaches and handlers are eating and sleeping a lot better this week than are McCain's. McCain's campaign is on the brink of lapsing into free-fall, and a feeble, confused, geriatric performance at the debate (especially if the media cover it as such) could effectively end McCain's chances. Obama, on the other hand, could suffer a nick or two and still remain in a reasonable position in the polls next week.

And I would like him to stick to that.  If I want to be inundated with catch phrases and political pot-shots, I need only watch the commercial breaks on News Channel 8.  McCain can do that, harp on the insubstantial, is that treating the American public with respect, as adults?  These things aren't simple.  And there isn't always certainty or a right answer.  Telling people that there is no nuance is treating them like children.  

I think as long as he doesn't say something flippant like "that is above my pay grade", he'll be fine.  Plus what you all seem to forget is that Obama has charm and McCain does not.

That didn't win them the White House.

This is A-mur-ik-uh, where ta-wrists and other evil-doers are out to git us with nu-cu-lar weapons.

sorry... after 8 years of Bush, you'll have to excuse me if my political anxiety level is permanently flashing red.

And now that Wall Street has had its 9/11 and Paulson is out doing the Colin Powell act on capital hill, I everything old seems new again.

Then I'm an African Rhinoceros.

Both men had all the charisma of a cucumber.

about this campaign?  I like being treated as an adult also, but I can't overlook the fact that many people are making their decisions about this election based on pretty superficial impressions.  

Obama has charm, it's true, but his natural charm hasn't come out during debates.  Instead, he looks awkward and uncomfortable.  He wants to treat everyone as adults, he sees no reason why people shouldn't be as deep as he is, and he is perplexed when they don't respond as reasonable, thoughtful, well-informed adults.  Obama should cut loose with the charm, should stop being reluctant to hammer on McCain, and should make short, pithy, catchy remarks.  It would be great if he could show humor, but so far he hasn't been too good at that, either.  Reagan got away with debate murder just by making humorous quips.  In terms of substance he lost, but no one noticed because they were thinking of what a charming old geezer he was.  

McCain can be very charming when he wants to be; however, he has been struggling to maintain his equilibrium in recent weeks and seems to me to be lacking that little spark of humor which made it so much fun for the press corps tagging along with him in the early days of the primaries and during the 2000 campaign.  He's appeared grim and exhausted these last few days.  The thing is, though, that we can't count him out.  He seems to work best when he perceives himself to be the underdog.

I only see the world as I would like it to be in this case, not as it is.

McCain wants to postpone [more likely cancel imho] Friday's debate.   His excuse is the financial crisis.  I'm not sure how his inability to walk and chew gum at the same time is supposed to attract votes.

I just saw that on CNN. WTF!?! I hope Obama doesnt fall for it. As someone said up there, neither one of them can do much, the committees have to do their work first. It makes no sense to cancel the debate (unless you're behind in the polls and don't want to debate thinking you'll lose)

Sorry to reply to my own comment, but McCain wants to suspend his campaign entirely, not just postpone the first debate, and reportedly he's told Obama about this, but there's no word that Obama will follow suit.  I think Obama should say he respects McCain's opinion, but he will continue to simultaneously campaign and fulfill his senatorial duties.  I also think he might want to debate an empty chair on Friday, if need be.

He should ask to just go ahead with the debate with someone in the Republican Party who is relevant.

I'm not sure who that might be at this point, but...

n/t

There is no way he will beat Obama.  AND, he's in retreat mode because he (McCain) knows he will lose--Big time.  He's now into grandstanding to cover his debate cowardice.

In my other lifetime (before changing careers) I taught speech.  And I vigorously disagree with those suggesting that any of McCain's performances have outshown Barack Obama's. What's with all the negativism...and accepting the media spin on debates?  I do not accept the negativsm (toward Obama's skills) that some here are voicing.  

McCain's being a little snark doesn't mean John McCain ever "won" a debate.  Being shifty-eyed, deer-in-headlights, slow-to-throw-up-a-last-minute (fake) smile, nasty and hyper-aggressive doesn't either.  John McCain isn't a "winner" because he's a bully.  

What he is is a pathalogical liar, at this point almost incapable of uttering unvarnished truth. And the only real challenge debating him is having time to set the facts straight.  The GOP modus operandi is to shovel as much dirt and lies as possible.  But that's not the same as "winning" a debate.  In fact, it's a shameful degrading of the process.  Having said that,. we haven't had "real" debates in decades.  The media should really step back.  We should go back to the days of moderated real debates.  

Seriously folks.  I am as incensed as the next progressive that anyone would consider any Republican at this point, but I gotta confess; I once respected what little I knew of John McCain (pre-2000 election).  Yes I was hopelessly light on the real facts; and overly impressed with McCain-Feingold, but let's face it - we are not seeing the same John McCain today that we saw in say... 1998.

What has happened?

I think that it is possible to narrowly lose the debates and still win the election.  I also think it is unlikely that Obama's clear command of the facts, his ability to speak rationally and honestly to lies and rhetoric, his ability to stay calm through hostility will let him down in a head to head debate with John McCain.

My prediction, if there is even a debate at all, is that Obama will completely crush the diminished McCain we are seeing today and get a 4-6% boost from the first debate, temporarily, but clearly measurable for a few days next week.

I also predict that if debates continue, the public will ratchet up it's expectations of Obama, and continued crushing victories in the debates by Obama will have no further effect on polling, and only minimal effect on the election.