Is Barack Obama really going to be the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry Virginia since 1964? If this new SurveyUSA poll is accurate, it's looking increasingly likely.
In an election for President of the United States in Virginia today, 09/22/08, 6 weeks from Election Day, Democrat Barack Obama edges Republican John McCain, 51% to 45%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll...Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one week ago, Obama is up 1 point; McCain is down 1 point; compared to a SurveyUSA poll two weeks ago, Obama is up 4, McCain is down 4.[...]
McCain holds 87% of the GOP base. Obama holds 91% of the Democrat base. Independents split. McCain holds 83% of Conservatives. Obama holds 86% of Liberals. But: Obama leads by 28 points among Moderates, and on that Virginia battlefield, the contest may be decided.
On the geographic breakdown, Obama's leading by 21 points (59%-38%) in vote-rich "Northeast Virginia, "and by 10 points (53%-43%) in the also-populous "Southeast Virginia." Obama leads narrowly (49%-45%) in "Central Virginia" and trails by 14 points (54%-40%) in "Shenandoah."
In terms of age, Obama leads big-time (55%-38%) among voters under 34, and by 6 points (51%-45%) among 35-49 year olds. Among voters over 50, it's basically a tie.
G'Obama! :)
McCain dodged a Veira head-shot by saying that the Fiorina situation was somehow different than the typical CEO compensation issue that he's been railing about (for the past week). McCain said she was in a different category because, well, despite the company losses and the layoffs, she did a lot of good things.
Veira should have simply followed up that question with -- "could you elaborate?". McCain likely would have said: "I don't really have the details". Follow-up: "Then what's your basis for saying that her compensation was justified?"
McCain then gets very, very angry. Would have made for great television.
This was actually pretty good compared to recent media endeavors.
http://fairfaxdemocrats.org/?p...
Their numbers are jumping around. "Northeast" is up 8% from their poll last week? Obama is down 3% in the "Southeast." The elderly vote all of a sudden got tight.
Makes you wonder about methodology, sample size, and how they are adjusting their sampling....
They had the splits at:
52% Webb
44% Allen
2% Parker.
3.7% margin of error.
McCain's numbers are likely a bit understated -- just as Allen's were in the SurveyUSA poll.
At this stage Obama looks like he definitely has an edge, but in real terms this is still a one to three point election. It'll be tight until the end.
So, not only do we have the lead, but our support is firmer.
I've since been told that the Obama campaign really isn't worried about signs and stickers and is focusing on actually winning the election rather than the sign war. Instead of spending time and energy distributing yard signs, they're focused on registering new voters and making sure anyone who even slightly tilts their way gets a gentle prod to keep 'em moving in that direction. Based on polling like this, it looks like that's a strategy with some legs.
Obama himself has said that we can help validate him in our neighborhoods. Quite frankly, yard signs are part of the validation process. In places like Prince William, Stafford, Spotsylvania, Chesterfield, Henrico, Chesapeake, and Virginia Beach, they help to start a conversation - and these localities are loaded with swing voters.
People take notice when yard signs start appearing for a Democratic presidential candidate in neighborhoods where they have never been seen before. And it fires up the troops who live in these same neighborhoods.
John McCain: Nothing But More Of The Same
Funny, my Mom is praying that Obama is elected. It's just too bad that she's not a citizen (but a green card holder for those snipes out there). She has lived here 40+ years and now wants to become a citizen just so she can vote. I suspect that this election will drive more of those who have lived here long as resident aliens, to become citizens. Also from the mom opinion, she liked Obama's speech at the convention (and did not like McCain's/Palin's). She said Obama was inspiring and gave her hope. Now my mom is Latina, and is burdened by the racism she grew up with. She acknowledged that racism runs deep in the Latino community that she knows, yet she hopes they wise up and realize what that could cost them. I know California will be ok, I just hope the rest of the southwest Latinos also wise up and vote for Obama.
Waiting for the repubs usual direct mail pieces to hit the mail boxes. This year will probably prove as distasteful as ever (especially if their is a sense of falling behind).
Keep dialing, walking, donating, writing letters to the editor, registering voters...etc.etc.
Waiting for the repubs usual direct mail pieces to hit the mail boxes. This year will probably prove as distasteful as ever (especially if their is a sense of falling behind).
Keep dialing, walking, donating, writing letters to the editor, registering voters...etc.etc.
Other polls I have seen recently are these:
Saturday
McCain 48% Obama 45% - average of 6 polls on Electoral-Vote.com
Friday
National Journal/FD: McCain - 48%, Obama - 41%.
Insider Advantage: McCain - 48%, Obama - 46%, Others - 1%.
Thursday
Christopher Newport Univ.: McCain - 48%, Obama - 39%.
PPP-D: Obama - 48%, McCain - 46%.
These polls all show Obama losing. I seriously doubt he is down by more than five. However, what gets me is that the variance in polls in Virginia has been pretty wide, while some other swing states have been more consistent. We see a 15 point swing in polls between Christopher Newport and Survey USA.
Personally, I believe the race in Virginia is a dead heat, and that Obama is probably not losing. We know Obama will win Northern Virginia easily. We know that Charlottesville students and Northern Virginia's cell-phone only 20-somethings will come out for Obama. We know that the African-American vote is probably under-represented in some of these polls.
I think ultimately, this race will be similar to the race against Jim Webb and George Allen. Clearly Jim Webb probably had a major disadvantage in name recognition at the time vs. George Allen. Obama doesn't have that problem. Jim Webb is probably more attractive to moderate Virginia voters than Obama. Yet, in a Presidential race turnout will no doubt be heavier. Despite Webb's strong volunteer base, Obama's get-out-the vote team is far superior to Webb.
We know McCain has to spend lots of time and money in Virginia whereas Bush didn't have to defend Virginia as strenuously and Kerry put more of his effort elsewhere.
I think Virginia will come down to 5,000 to 10,000 votes in either direction. This race is probably 49-49 right now.
Also, in this poll, it shows Obama with a huge lead among women, who make up 51% or respondents - women generally make up 53% of the electorate, so they are being under counted. AA's are under counted as well and it is hard to imagine 16% of AA's voting for McCain.
What you might be seeing, finally, are all these new registrants starting to have an impact in the polls. But I think most of these polls, state by state, should be discounted until the registration books are closed. Only until then will pollsters know the make up of the electorate moving forward on election day.
I expect Virginia is a 2-point race in the end, and the wind is slightly at our backs now. A nice feeling, but only doing the hard work will bring it home.
In the CNN poll, Obama gained among men and seniors, and is now leading with both groups.
Note also that the WaPo poll, just like in SUSA, probably undersamples the African-American vote by 2-4 points.
We are in the pole position heading into the last six weeks of the race. That's very, very encouraging in terms of getting more volunteers to commit their time.
[Nader, blehh.]
Cross-tabs not available, unless you are a subscriber (I am not).