The Daou Triangle has closed around John McCain. Bloggers, electeds and the press have firmly decided that John McCain will continue the policies of George W. Bush. McCain=Bush is now firmly ensconced in the conventional wisdom of the American people. McCain will fight it all the way through November, but in this election the decision before voters is Obama vs. McBush.
The New York Times, today releases a poll, with results which will make Team Obama stand up and cheer. He was down by 2% a week ago. That's changed. Not only does Obama lead nationally by a statistically significant 5% (48% Obama, 43% McBush), but in perception now, as in policy, ideology, and practice, McCain is tied at the hip to the "Worst. President. Ever." George W. Bush:
Despite an intense effort to distance himself from the way his party has done business in Washington, Senator John McCain is seen by voters as far less likely to bring change to Washington than Senator Barack Obama. Mr. McCain is widely viewed as a "typical Republican" who would continue or expand President Bush's policies
In fact, 68% said that McCain would be the same as Bush or more conservative. The convention bounces have left the American awareness, and the bloom is off the rose for Sarah Palin who has clearly been embraced only by partisan Republicans:
Polls taken after the Republican convention suggested that Mr. McCain had enjoyed a surge of support - particularly among white women after his selection of Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska as his running mate - but the latest poll indicates "the Palin effect" was, at least so far, a limited burst of interest.But the Times/CBS News poll suggested that Ms. Palin's selection has, to date, helped Mr. McCain only among Republican base voters; there was no evidence of significantly increased support for him among female voters in general. White women are evenly divided between Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama; before the conventions, Mr. McCain led Mr. Obama among white women by a margin of 44 percent to 37 percent.
By contrast, at this point in the 2004 campaign, President Bush was leading Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, the Democratic challenger, by 56 percent to 37 percent among white women.
Moreover, there is ample room for the argument that McBush's pick of Sarah Palin was a reckless, cynical and political ploy to shore up the base, thus ignoring the critical responsibility of the candidate to put a qualified successor a heartbeat away from the presidency:
And 75 percent said they thought Mr. McCain had picked Mrs. Palin more to help him win the election, rather than because he thought that she was well-qualified to be president. By contrast, 31 percent said they thought that Mr. Obama picked Mr. Biden more to help him win the election, while 57 percent said it was because he thought Mr. Biden was well-qualified for the job.
More highlights:
Bush Disapproval: A record 68%
Country Heading in the Wrong Direction: 81%
McCain Would Continue Bush Policies: 46%
McCain Would Be More Conservative Than Bush: 22%
McCain is a Typical Republican: 57%
Democratic Party Favorability: 50%
Republican Party Favorability: 37%
McCain Would Bring Change to Washington: 37%
Obama Would Bring Change to Washington: 65%
Confident in Obama's Economic Stewardship: 60%
Understands needs of "people like yourself": Obama 60%, McCain 48%
Given the state of public opinion, we may consider why this isn't a runaway election. Bob Cesca has some choice words on the subject:
It's not like Senator Obama's patriotism and character is being assassinated for three hours every morning on cable news -- six hours if we include the spasmodic howler monkeys on FOX & Friends. I can't imagine why the polls are so close when Joe Scarborough is helping his Republican allies to once again turn this critical national debate into another blind recitation of Lee Greenwood lyrics.Why are the polls so close? Not only do around 25 percent of Americans watch FOX News Channel on a regular basis, but, from coast to coast, there are more than a thousand far-right talk radio stations occupied by shows that make Morning Joe sound like an Olbermann Special Comment. And 17 percent of Americans are glued to it at work and in their cars. Talkers like Hugh Hewitt, Sean Hannity, John Gibson, Rush Limbaugh, Michael Medved, Bill Bennett and Glenn Beck broadcast on your public air around the clock. Non-stop. Unrelenting. Only interrupted by Accu-weather and traffic. Free to anyone with an AM radio.
I don't know if you've dared to listen to far-right talk radio lately, but I can assure you that they're not ignoring Senator Obama -- or his family. Put it this way: if you only got your news and opinions from talk radio, you'd probably believe that Senator Obama is some kind of foreign-born baby-killing Manchurian Candidate terrorist -- if not a sexist uppity black man who, if he loses in November, will incite race riots in every city.
Given the ideological landscape of cable news, talk radio and the nefarious lie-based caricature therein of Obama as a black-power, fetus-crushing Muslim terrorist, why isn't John McCain 20 points ahead in polls?
So despite a media landscape filled with right-wing propaganda, Obama still leads John McCain. Maybe the American people really aren't as stupid as John McCain believes. It seems they aren't, they clearly know McCain=Bush.
Prediction for next week
Obama up by 8%
Indiana: Obama back up by three, after being down an average of about 6 points to McCain in August and early September;
New Mexico: Obama back up eight, after polls showing a dead heat for most of the past month.
I try not to get too excited or down by any one poll (and the other Indiana poll today by CNN shows McCain up by six), but I think this financial meltdown (on top of the media scrutiny about Ms. Palin and the ever-growing chorus of lies emanating from McCain's campaign) is going to rock McCain's numbers.
Virginia is still the linchpin state in this election, along with Colorado. I hope everyone is out there working with their local Obama office and precinct teams to work the field.