Maybe I'm in these results.  :)

or another pollster?

It was something like CSCI or something.  It wasn't a Pollster that I'd heard before.

I got at least 3 polling calls over the summer and asked each who they worked for.  They all mentioned some random polling firm.  I then looked up the firm - 2 were from McCain, 1 from Gilmore.  

Lets see, the Republicans have lost the Governor's Mansion the last several times.  They just lost the Senate and are now poised to lose the House in 2009.  Why would anyone dare to think they'd lose the Presidential race too?

while others are fretting we are working.
thanks to hacks like gallup that are manipulating the polls, people are coming out and working for barack all over virginia.
Go Bama.

I did some phone banking for Webb and Chuck Colgan, and just started working in the Manassas office this past weekend, and I must say it's quite the bee hive of energy.  

I tip my hate to the staff, they are working their tails off.

a great tool, with the script and everything.
go for it.

I have gotten three calls in the past 2 hours from area codes 410 and 443 (Maryland).  I live Fairfax County.  All three callers are using the script off the Obama web site.  Apparently, the web site is assigning out-of-state voters to at-home phone bank volunteers and assigning the same voter to multiple volunteers, even thought the instructions say that once a voter is assigned to a volunteer that voter is "yours."

This is not helpful.  I told the third caller that if I got one more call tonight I was going to vote for Nader.

I've never received a polling call in my entire life. Of course, I haven't had a land line in over eight years, so I suppose that's not a surprise.

Cell phone user = Go Obama.

Thanks for sharing it!

Obama's lead in Hampton Roads has swelled to 16 points in this poll; in NOVA, Obama's lead is down to 8 points.  

One interesting note - Shenandoah, Central Virginia and Southeastern Virginia had a 1% showing for another candidate other than Obama or McCain, but in NOVA it was triple what it what is other parts of the state - 3%.  Are these conservatives in NOVA voting for Barr or are they liberals voting for Nader or McKinney.  I suspect Nader/McKinney, since Obama's margin in NOVA has shrunk by 3% from the last poll.

Cental Virginia's numbers are surprising for Obama as well.  Numbers like this would indicate that Obama must be doing much better with white voters in more conservative onclaves like Chesterfield County and Henrico County - and that seems plauseable since Obama's support among independents skyrocketed statewide in this poll versus the last poll.  

Keep pounding the pavement in Hampton Roads - it looks like that area is going to hold the keys to Virginia's 13 electoral votes as far as Obama is concerned.    

Not sure why SurveyUSA considers it "striking" that McCain would get a little bump in the DC suburbs -- he and Palin campaigned in Fairfax Co. just before the poll was taken.  

Hampton Roads was outpacing NOVA according to CNN.  The lead in that poll was also in the double digits, while Kerry lost the same precincts to Bush by 4 percent.

I discounted that poll at the time as being crazy--yes, there's going to be record turnout in Bobby Scott's precincts for Obama, yes we have improved of local Democratic organization profoundly since 2004, but even for a vocal Virginia Beach Democrat like me, theorizing an 11-16% lead is crazy!...or it would have seemed crazy.  But now there are two independent polls saying that we're doing it.

Interesting, indeed.

Told ya.  We're kickin' it in Hampton Roads.  

Our organization is light years ahead of what we had in 2004.  That half of last year's General Assembly pick ups came from Hampton Roads is no accident.  Everybody in the state needs to fight like mad for every vote, but mark my words, Hampton Roads is going to deliver the state for Barack Obama.

G'Obama!

Susan Mariner
Deputy Political Director -- Hampton Roads
Democratic Party of Virgina.

and, since you say so, I really do believe you'll deliver Hampton Roads. Go Susan! G'Obama!

They are waiting for he debates.

NoVA isn't straight-up liberal in the same way that DC is straight-up liberal. I'd be surprised if a downstate Republican ever wins Fairfax again, but the culture of NoVA, by and large, is still populated by hypereducated bureaucrats. By definition, they're establishment people. They don't vote on gut instinct. They'll deliberate for a good long while, vacillating if necessary.

Having said that, I've always thought that people were setting the bar too high for NoVA. 60% is one thing, but a lot of Obama supporters want NoVA to break 75% or 80%. That's a pretty tall order, even for much of Jim Moran's district. Arlington and Alexandria could easily break 75% for Obama, but I'd be surprised if Fairfax broke 70%, much less PWC and Loudoun.

Long story short: it's a good thing Obama is ticking up in Central and Tidewater, because he's going to need it. Not to mention loads of young people and peripheral professionals in Fredericksburg, Harrisonburg, Charlottesville, etc. Virginia is the new Missouri: right on the dividing line of culture, class, geography, political trends, etc. Either way, it's is going to be close.

Arlington-Alexandria broke for Kerry 66 and 67 percent v. Bush in 2004.  

They broke for Webb 70 percent two years later.

I see Obama pushing above 70 based on new registrations and turnout I would be absolutely shocked though if he hit 75 percent in those two heavy Dem counties.  As far as Fairfax goes, we're probably looking at mid-to high 50s.  Numbers similar to Webb's re-election.

As far as those NoVA undecideds go, this is one area where the Washington Post editorial endorsement could have an impact -- especially if they advocate strongly on one-side (rather than the "on the one hand, on the other hand" equivocation on the Bush v. Kerry race where they recommended Kerry while making sure to blunt the enthusiasm of endorsement).

Webb v. Allen two days before the 2006 VA Senate race --

Webb 52
Allen 44
Parker 2

I think it's a given that this one is probably going to be very close.  Still plenty of work to do.

Webb was up 8 points and ended winning by, what, about 8 votes?

And something tells me, just a hunch, that a number of undecided/middle-of-the-road Virginia voters will have a tough time pulling the trigger for a Dem at the Presidential level.  Not because they don't want or don't like Obama, or because they want more of the McSame, but because they've been voting "R" for so long and those habits are hard to break.  Any doubt at all and they'll probably feel more comfortable doing the same old thing they've always done.  And that moment of uncertainty could easily undo all the good polling numbers.

I think it was more like around 3,000 votes from Northern Virginia.

probably break for McCain.  The x-factor is turnout -- that push is going to be key.  Also I suspect that the Dems will have poll monitors to ensure that challenges are treated appropriately.  

FWIW, my recollection is the Webb margin ended up being 10,000 votes statewide.  Close, but not a Deeds v. McDonnell sub-800 vote difference.

Webb won by 9329 votes of 2.37 Million cast

My results, in the comment below, was based on CNN.com.  Your numbers, I now see, came from the Virginia State Board of Elections.

You are correct.

The final tally was Webb by 7,231 votes, or about 3/10s of one percent of the almost 2.4 million votes cast.  McDonnell won by only 323 votes of 1.9+ million votes cast, or about 2/100s of one percent.

This is a good talking point when getting out the vote, esp. to those who say, "one vote doesn't make any difference."  

If Rasmussen is correct about Obama-McCain, and they usually are the closest of the pollsters, November 4th could be a very long night.  After the way the networks called Pennsylvania and Florida in 2000, I doubt if they will call Virginia until every absentee ballot has been opened and counted.

although I'd like to see another pollster reporting this before celebrating too much.

Obama has a much better ground game and GOTV operation than McCain. I read in the Wash Post a few weeks ago that a couple of heavily red counties had let their county parties disappear entirely!

Compare this to the non-stop presence Obama has had all over the state, especially in Northern VA, Richmond City, and the north side cities in Tidewater (Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, Portsmouth.) But then again, even Henrico went 50-50, and Chesapeake and VA Beach only went for Allen by 5 points.

Part of me is fearing McCain will win the areas SW of Roanoke by 3-1 or 4-1 margins due to Clinton winning those areas 8-1.

I'm not sure how many Operation Chaos voters were playing in that area since by 12 Feb McCain had pretty much won anyway.  

is turnout. Will people who are hesitant about Obama but otherwise vote Democratic turn out for McCain? In 2004, the 9th had the lowest turnout rate of any district in the state. In 2006, the third-lowest, although you would have expected the 9th to turn out for Jim Webb. FYI, Allen won the 9th by ten points.

split between the two candidates.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

It appears that Obama's post-GOP convention drop in the polls has bottomed out.  Or in other words, it appears that McCain has peaked. Besides Palin, does he have any other tricks up his sleeve?  Virginia coming back to Obama is great news.  Ohio has tightened up as well.  If I remember correctly, in 2004 Bush was well ahead of Kerry in Ohio polls for much of the last two months.  It wasn't this close until election day itself.

Still, this is all the more reason to be active.  I finally got some volunteer time in this past weekend where I live, and scheduled some more time later this week.

I think most importantly, is that we need to work on registering voters at Virginia universities before the registration deadline.  Students in Virginia (except at Liberty Univ or Pat Robertson's law school - is that in Virginia?) will be key to bringing votes to Obama in VA.  

I wonder, has Raising Kaine reached out the University of Virginia Democrats?  I remember a real talented kid from Charlottesville working on the Al Weed campaign in 2006 when I went down there to volunteer.

Still hoping Palin has a macaca moment or that a Wasilla PD receipt for a rape kit emerges.  

Those moments are rare gifts that don't come along often

Yes, I believe McCain does have more arrows in his quiver, not the least of which is the soon-to-be-launched barrage of ads from the Swift Boat Boys. They have been openly rubbing their hands in glee at what they have cooked up. I expect to hear a lot, an awful lot, about Rezko, Avery, Communist sympathizers, and made-up stuff about Obama's Muslim connections and Michelle's Iranian connections. And so on. I hope Obama's staff is prepared. I have few ideas I'd like to see in some flash ads on television. Where do I take them?

I talked to one of the seniors at UVA and they said they are working real hard while Mcsame has very little prescence there.
Go Bama.

I wonder if it is an outlier.

...350,000 forms requested in July and August, and they ordered another 200,000 to keep up with demand.

I have to assume most of the 350,000 were for the Obama ground game, and the latest request is probably a split, after the conventions.

In any case, that's incredible, and if we get 1/4 of them returned that's still a tidy sum since July.

it'll probably be close to a wash.  I think some turnout on Obama's side isn't being counted in polls.  On the other side, there may be a "Bradley" effect in play in terms of the overall numbers.  My sense is that this race is -- and will likely remain -- a very, very close contest.  Obama will close the Kerry 7.5 percent loss margin -- the question is whether he can push it into positive territory.  I think he can, but odds are its going to be very, very close.  

is the elephant in the room. Oddly enough, I believe that the selection of Palin as V-P for McCain may have released some secretly prejudiced voters from their quandry: they can now vote McCain-Palin and say, "See, I'm not a bigot, I voted for a female!" (of course, a white female, who has the added virtue of being a pretty, sexy,dominatrix under patriarchal tutelege.

I entered some canvassing data at the Obama headquarters last weekend and noticed that over 60% of those listed from the Centerville area had Indian, Middle Eastern, or Asian names. These people are almost invariably for Obama. Most weren't home on Sunday, but I think this changing demographic is going to be Virginia's November surprise.

Colley rankings still show a very close election in terms of the electoral college, and don't indicate yet that Obama will flip Virginia.  Keep working!
http://www.colleyrankings.com/...

the remaining 50 days are going to be very interesting.
There are so unknown variables, it really could go either way.  The only thing that is a "for sure" is that it isn't going to be boring.