Although the race for President is presently a dead heat, the Republicans in Congress are facing big losses. With less than two months to go, the Democrats have the majority in the House and are likely to expand it. The NRCC has already told GOP candidates they won't get as much support as they did in 2006. Many GOP candidates have retired or resigned, while far fewer Democratic seats are open. The GOP already lost 3 seats so far this year alone. In fact, if you account for the three seats Republicans already lost, the Democratic list would be 19 instead of 22. Ultimately, the Presidential race will have an impact on the total number of seat the GOP loses. An Obama victory will virtually assure a major Republican defeat in the House races.
Below is an overview of all the critical seats of contention in 2008. The Democrats have 22 seats that may be vulnerable, with 14 seats that are clearly vulnerable (including the three seats they picked up in 2008), while the Republicans appear to have 45 seats that may be vulnerable, with 32 that are clearly vulnerable.
Among the 32 Republican seats that are clearly vulnerable is Virginia's 11th District, which is now a likely Democratic victory, if not a safe Democratic seat. Virginia's 2nd District, and Virginia's 10th District are each slightly vulnerable for the Republicans at this point. Virginia's 5th district remains a race to watch.
With Mark Warner a safe Democratic pick-up and if Obama can win Virginia, all of these races will be very hard for the Republicans to defend.
Not surprisingly, there are no vulnerable Virginia Democratic Congressman.
Below the flip is a list of key races in 2008.
Highly Vulnerable Republicans (14)
Alabama 02 (Open Seat) - Although a red district, the retirement of Terry Everett and emergence of Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright as the Democratic candidate has created a real buzz in this southeastern Alabama district. Bobby Bright faces State Representative Jay Love. This race is a toss-up.
Alaska at large (Young) - Sarah Palin likely will not extend a life line to ethically-challenged Congressman Don Young. The Republican incumbent who has served for 35 years, is engulfed in ethical issues and challenges that had him far behind in the polls against the Democrats for months. Despite these issues, Republican voters in Alaska chose him over Lt. Governor Sean Parnell by just under 250 votes. Young now faces Ethan Berkowitz, former leader of the Democrats in the Alaska legislature. From personal experience, I know Ethan to be very energetic and articulate and someone who can win despite a huge gap in Democratic registration. This race is leaning Democrat.
Arizona 01 (Open Seat) - Rick Renzi's retirement opens up this seat, Arizona's largest geographically, which hosted a worthwhile challenge by Ellen Simon in 2006 against the incumbent Republican. Renzi's indictment makes it even tougher for the Republican candidate, Sydney Ann Hay, the State Mining Association Executive Director. The Democrat is state legislator Ann Kirkpatrick, a woman who speaks fluent Navajo and who, unlike Ellen Simon in 2006, has wide support and name recognition throughout the district. This race is currently leaning Democratic.
Florida 21 (Lincoln Diaz-Balart) - In this south Florida district east of Miami, Lincoln Diaz-Balart beat his Democratic challenger by 19 points in 2006, but outspent him 58-1. This time he will have a stronger challenge in former Hialeah Mayor, Raul Martinez, who has been polling strongly.
Illinois 11 (Open Seat) - Jerry Weller managed a 10 point victory in 2006, but his retirement opens up this key swing district in north-central Illinois big time for the Democrats. Debbie Halvorson, the Majority Leader of the Illinois State Senate will be the Democrat favored to win. Her Republican challenger has far less name recognition and will have little chance to stop this seat from changing Party hands.
Nevada 03 (Porter) - Every two years this Southern Nevada district seems to have more Democrats move into town. Porter barely won last time, and has to convince a new round of voters that he is their best representative. Now he faces 2006 Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Dana Titus who won this district in her Gubernatorial effort in 2006. This race leans slightly Democratic.
New Jersey 03 (Open Seat) - While this was not the closest race in 2006, NJ-03 remains a swing district in south-central New Jersey. The retirement of Jim Saxton provides a great opportunity for a Democrat pick-up by this year's Democratic candidate, State Senator John Adler. He will face Medford Township Councilman Chris Myers. This race is a toss-up.
New Jersey 07 (Open Seat) - Republican Rep. Mike Ferguson barely won re-election in 2006, and with his retirement, this seat is wide open for the Democrats to take it over. The Democrat is 2006 challenger, State Assemblywoman Linda Stender. The Republican is Leonard Lance, the Fmr. State Senate Minority Leader. This race currently leans to the Democrats.
New Mexico 01 (Open Seat) - The Democrats have a good chance to take this seat which they almost won in 2006. Albuquerque Councilor Martin Heinrich is facing off against Republican Bernalillo County Sheriff & Ex-State Secretary of Public Safety, Darren White. This race is a toss-up.
New York 13 (Open Seat) - With a DUI and other issues plaguing him, the only Republican serving a New York City district has retired. Vito Fossella was likely a strong candidate for re-election if he didn't slip, but that is no longer the case. The Democratic candidate is New York City councilman Mike McMahon. The Republican candidate is former assemblyman Robert Straniere. McMahon is favored to win.
New York 25 (Open Seat) - This was a tight race in 2006 in this Democratic-leaning district. With Republican Jim Walsh retiring it is likely that 2006 challenger Dan Maffei will be a favorite to win this district covering Syracuse. The Republican he'll have to beat is Dale Sweetland, a farmer and former county legislature chair.
Ohio 15 (Open Seat) - Deborah Pryce eked out a 1,000 vote victory in 2006 in this district covering parts of Columbus and its western suburbs. Her retirement leaves the GOP in hot water to defend this seat with Republican State Senator Steve Stivers facing Pryce's 2006 challenger, Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy. This race leans slightly Democratic.
Ohio 16 (Open Seat) - Due to the retirement of Ralph Regula, this northern Ohio seat is open for the first time in over three decades. State Senator and Air Force Reserve Major John Boccieri is the Democrat facing Republican State Senator Kirk Schuring. This race is a toss-up.
Virginia 11 (Open Seat) - Tom Davis' retirement opens the door for the Democratic takeover many have been waiting for in Fairfax and throughout the DC suburbs that make up Virginia's 11th district. Tim Kaine won big here in 2005 in the Governor's race, and Jim Webb won big here in the Senate race in 2006. The Democrats have a high profile candidate in moderate Democrat Gerry Connolly, who will face Republican businessman, Keith Fimian. Gerry Connolly has strong name recognition in the district that makes him formidable against any Republican. This race is not a toss-up. It is a likely Democratic victory.
Vulnerable Republicans (18)
Colorado 04 (Musgrave) - Musgrave pulled out a 3-point victory in 2006 and this seat remains up for grabs in a district covering Eastern Colorado and Fort Collins. Betsy Markey, Musgrave's 2008 opponent had a poll come out recently putting her ahead by 7 points. She has been campaigning since the fall of 2007 and has racked up impressive fundraising numbers. Still, the Eastern plains are very conservative and make this a tough district to win for any Democrat.
Connecticut 04 (Shays) - Chris Shays had threatened to retire if not given a ranking committee assignment. At this point, however, he is running full throttle. He faces Greenwich Democratic chair Jim Himes from my hometown, who is the latest in a long-line of Democrats who have been locked in close races to knock out this long-time moderate Republican. Still, Shays has faced close races for the last few cycles, and emerged victorious. It will simply be a numbers game this time out.
Florida 24 (Feeney) - As an ethically challenged Republican, Tom Feeney is a clear target in 2008. He received 58% of the vote in 2006, in a race that was pretty much ignored in Florida's eastern coast. In 2006, Feeney faced a man who accused him of fixing his first election. Feeney was one of the characters featured in the HBO movie "Recount" about the 2000 Presidential Election, when he was the incoming Speaker of Florida House. His current opponent is former State Representative Suzanne Kosmas, who is much stronger than his opponent in 2006. If Obama can stay close in Florida, he can possibly push Kosmas into office.
Florida 25 (Mario Diaz-Balart)...Like his younger brother, Mario Diaz-Balart faces a tough challenge in 2008 with Miami-Dade County Democratic Chair & Political Consultant Joe Garcia running as the Democratic candidate. Mario Diaz-Balart won this district on the southern tip of Florida by 17 points in 2006. Republicans still outnumber Democrats here, but that does not guarantee a victory for the Republicans this time.
Illinois 10 (Kirk) - Moderate Republican Mark Kirk survived in this Democratic majority district in 2006 in the Chicago suburbs, but he remains vulnerable in 2008, and faces Dan Seals, his challenger in 2006. Kirk remains well-liked in his district and has been a strong fundraiser.
Kentucky 02 (Open) - Ron Lewis' retirement opened up this strongly Republican seat, but with little fanfare. That is until State Senator David Boswell emerged as the Democratic candidate, and the Republicans drew a much weaker opponent in Brett Guthrie. This race is now a vulnerable one for the Republicans that they did not think they would have to defend.
Louisiana 04 (Open Seat) - With Republican Jim McCrery retiring, this seat may be a compelling pick-up opportunity for Democrats in this emerging swing district in Western Louisiana. Hurricane Gustav delayed the primary until October 4th, making this a very short campaign for the Democrats, which may or may not help them. It is hard to tell at this point.
Michigan 07 (Walberg) - As a freshman Republican already having trouble with the press in this southern Michigan district, Walberg is now far more vulnerable than when he ran the first time. His opponent is State Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer, a much stronger and well-financed Democratic challenger than he had in 2008. The race is close, but Schauer has some work to do to emerge the victor in November.
Minnesota 03 (Open Seat) - With the retirement of popular GOP incumbent Jim Ramstad, this swing district in the Minneapolis suburbs becomes a potential pick up for the Democrats. Iraq War veteran Ashwin Madia will face off against Republican state representative Erik Paulsen. Madia has great youth appeal, and a great back story. Will that be enough to knock out the Republican establishment candidate? We'll see.
Missouri 06 (Graves) - This seat in Missouri's Northwest corner will present a unique pick-up opportunity with the Democrats running former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes. Sam Graves ran a commercial with Nancy Pelosi, techno music, and what he intended to look like people from the gay community of San Francisco dancing in leather. Barnes countered with a commercial about economic issues claiming that Graves only ran the commercial because had no record to stand on. Will this commercial blowing up in the NRCC's face squelch future Republican attempts to scare voters with gay marriage and the word 'liberal' or will they too have to take on a more populist message?
Missouri 09 (Open Seat) - Another open seat has been created by Kenny Hulshof running for Governor. Although this district in northeastern Missouri is conservative, it has become quite competitive. State Rep Judy Baker won a heavily contested Democratic primary and one poll had her leading the Republican, former State Tourism Director, Blaine Luetkemeyer.
New Mexico 02 (Open Seat) - Rural New Mexico has generally expected to be a safe bet for Republicans to send representatives for Congress. With the current representative of this district, Steve Pearce running for Senate, it would seem natural for Republican and former candidate Ed Tinsley to walk away with the seat. But wait...the Democrats aren't giving up that easily. With Pearce's numbers still weak in the Senate race against Tom Udall and Obama's numbers generally strong in the state Democrat Harry Teague, the former Lea County Commissioner, is poised for an upset.
New York 29 (Kuhl) - Randy Kuhl has had close races in the last two elections. There is no reason to expect anything different this time, even in rural southwest New York State. He will face his 2006 opponent, Navy Veteran Eric Massa, whom he beat that year by only 6,000 votes.
North Carolina 08 (Hayes) - In 2006, Robin Hayes struggled to keep his seat east of Charlotte, winning by only 329 votes against a relatively unknown challenger, Larry Kissell. He faces Kissell again in 2008.
Ohio 01 (Chabot) - Chabot's 6-point victory in 2006 shows that beating him will be tough in this district in Ohio's southwestern corner, but in 2008 he faces a much stronger challenger in minority whip of the Ohio state House, Steve Driehaus. Chabot may also struggle with his African-American constituents who make up over a quarter of the district's population.
Ohio 02 (Schmidt) - Jean Schmidt faces Victoria Wulsin once again in 2008. This should be another horse race in this conservative southern Ohio district. Jean Schmidt has a serious problem with likeability, which is why she has struggled in a district that Republicans seemingly shouldn't have any trouble with.
Washington 08 (Reichert) - A tight race in 2006 is likely to be tight in 2008 in this Democratic-leaning district in suburban Seattle. 2006 candidate Darcy Burner has raised a great deal of money, and has a strong following not just in her district, but nationwide. Polls still show her behind.
Wyoming at-large (Open Seat) - The Republicans are clearly better off without Barbara Cubin running, since she only won by 1,000 votes in 2006 in this very conservative state. However, Gary Trauner ran a strong campaign in 2006, and is still a tough challenge for the Republican's candidate, Cynthia Lummis, the former state treasurer and state lands director.
Slightly Vulnerable Republicans (13)
Arizona 03 (Shadegg) - John Shadegg has become a man with a target on his back. Ethically challenged and in the heart of McCain country, the Democrats see a chance to force Republicans to spend big in places they shouldn't have to. Attorney Bob Lord is getting strong support from the DCCC for this effort north of Phoenix.
California 04 (Open Seat) - With an ongoing FBI investigation of he and his wife, John Doolittle retired, fearing a loss in this heavily Republican District in northeastern California. Challenger Charlie Brown got close to defeating Doolittle in 2006, and may still have a shot if the Republicans aren't able to stray from Doolittle's ethical issues. However, Republican State Senator Tom McClintock will be a formidable opponent here even though he relocated from Southern California.
Florida 08 (Keller) - This seat was more competitive in 2006 than many expected, and despite being located in Central Florida, away from Democratic strongholds. Keller faces Attorney & Businessman Alan Grayson.
Florida 13 (Buchanan) - Katherine Harris' old seat became a battleground when she left to run her hilariously terrible Senate race in 2006. Democrat Christine Jennings faced off with Republican Vern Buchanan in what became one of the closest House races in the country. Jennings lost by only 369 votes, and afterwards raised questions about accurate vote-counting. Will this coastal district in West Florida be as close this time? That remains to be seen. However, you cannot dismiss a race that close, and assume Vern Buchanan will have an easier time in 2008, even though indications are that he will hold on to his seat.
Idaho 01 (Sali) - Sali angered a lot of Republicans in his time in the Idaho legislature, but still won this seat by five points in 2006. Sali ran for the seat after Republican Butch Otter retired to run for Governor. Butch Otter remains reluctant to support Sali, who will have to go it alone once again, trusting that Idahoans simply won't vote for a Democrat no matter who is running. Businessman and attorney Walt Minnick has taken on the Democratic mantle and is vying for the seat.
Maryland 01 (Open). Congressman Wayne Gilchrest lost his own primary to State Senator Andy Harris leaving an open seat in Eastern Maryland. Once a Republican stronghold, Democratic registration has grown significantly. Now Gilchrest has endorsed the Democratic candidate, Queen Anne County State's Attorney Frank Kratovil. This race is certainly one to watch.
Michigan 09 (Knollenberg) - Joe Knollenberg's 6-point victory was enough to convince Democrats to spend some real money in this southeastern Michigan district in 2008. Former State Lottery Commissioner and Fmr. State Senator Gary Peters is his Democratic challenger in 2008. This race will probably get a lot of press, not because of either of these two candidates, but because both will face an Independent by the name of Jack Kevorkian; Hopefully you know who that is, because I am not going to bother explaining it if you don't.
Nevada 02 (Heller) - Dean Heller's 6 point victory in 2006 was strong, but it does not change the fact that growth in Northern Nevada will keep this a swing seat in 2008. Heller will again face his 2006 opponent, Jill Derby, the former head of the Nevada Democratic Party.
New York 26 (Open Seat) - Tom Reynolds retirement offers a strong pick-up opportunity for the Democrats in Western New York State. Republican State Senator George Maziarz appeared to be a strong candidate to keep this seat in GOP hands, but he decided not to run. The Republican candidate is instead businessman Chris Lee. The Democrats thought they would be running Iraq war veteran, Jon Powers, until he lost in the primary to Retired Attorney & Environmental Activist Alice Kryzan. Kryzan changes the tone of the race from one about Iraq to one more likely about local issues.
The race has shifted from one of the hottest in the country to one with less buzz. But this is a race to watch over the next few weeks to see if Kryzan can return momentum to the Democrats.
Pennsylvania 03 (English) - Lake Erie Arboretum Director Kathy Dahlkemper appears more formidable than many believed. In what may be a sleeper race, Phil English will have to work hard to defend his seat in northwestern Pennsylvania, especially after receiving only 53% of the vote in 2006 in a race that received little attention.
Virginia 02 (Drake) - Despite losing in the polls with only a few weeks remaining until election day, Thelma Drake was able to keep her seat in southeastern Virginia by pulling out a decades old scandal on Democratic challenger Phil Kellam. The Democrats have another strong candidate to face her in 2008 in former diplomat Glenn Nye. Glenn Nye presently lacks name recognition, which is not a problem for Thelma Drake; however Drake was exposed during the tough 2006 contest and will have to work hard to retain her seat.
Virginia 10 (Wolf) - Despite a strong victory in 2006, Frank Wolf has a district in Northern Virginia that is trending more and more Democratic. He will face his 2006 opponent, Georgetown Professor, Judy Feder, who has proved herself a strong fundraiser. From personal experience, she is a very sweet lady with a lot of energy and knowledge.
West Virginia 02 (Capito) - Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito won 57% to 43% in 2006, yet this race still remains a target for the Democratic Party. In 2008, Capito will face Former State Director for US Senator Byrd, Anne Barth. Although Barth is a strong candidate, Capito is the only Republican Congressional representative of West Virginia, and will benefit from Obama's weakness in the state.
10 Other Republican races to watch
California 50 (Bilbray), Illinois 18 (Open Seat), Minnesota 02 (Kline), Minnesota 06 (Bachmann), Ohio 07 (Open), Pennsylvania 06 (Gerlach), Pennsylvania 15 (Dent), Pennsylvania 18 (Murphy), Texas 10 (McCaul), Virginia 05 (Goode)
Highly Vulnerable Democrats (9)
Alabama 05 (Open) - The retirement of Bud Cramer in this very "red" district encompassing the northern part of Alabama has created a strong pick up opportunity for the GOP. The Democrats are running state senator Parker Griffith to be Cramer's successor. The Republicans will run businessman Wayne Parker. This race thus far appears to lean Democratic.
Florida 16 (Mahoney) - Tim Mahoney may be fortunate that he won't face a big name Republican in 2008, but this remains a tough district for Democrats. Attorney & Army Veteran Tom Rooney won a crowded and bitter August 26th Republican primary. This race remains a toss-up, although could turn in Mahoney's favor if Rooney doesn't create any quick momentum.
Georgia 08 (Marshall) - Jim Marshall faced a tough contest in this conservative central Georgia district in 2006. He faces another tough challenge in 2008 against his Retired Air Force Major General Rick Goddard. This race is a toss-up.
Louisiana 06 (Open) - On May 3rd, Democratic State Representative Don Cazayoux won the Special Election and took this seat from the Republicans. He will have to run again in November. This time, he will not take on former State Representative Woody Jenkins. Instead he faces a strong Republican challenger; State Senator Bill Cassidy. This seat is the Republican's best chance to get back a seat they lost earlier in 2008. However, don't count Cazayoux out. This district covers Baton Rouge and has a large African American population, which may be eager to come out for Obama.
New Hampshire 01 (Shea-Porter) - Carol Shea-Porter pulled off a surprising 51-49 victory in 2006 against the heavily favored incumbent Jeb Bradley. Bradley is running again in 2008 and he will give her a strong challenge to get his seat back. This race is a toss-up
Pennsylvania 10 (Carney) - This year, Chris Carney doesn't have the luxury of running against a man embroiled in a sex scandal involving choking. This seat in Pennsylvania's northeastern corner is strong Republican-leaning, and Carney faces a much tougher challenger this time out against businessman, Chris Hackett. Still, Carney has kept this race in his favor thus far. The race could tighten which is why it is still highly vulnerable.
Pennsylvania 11 (Kanjorski) - While not a competitive seat in the last few elections, the decision by Hazelton Mayor Lou Barletta to run for this seat has resulted in a close race in northeastern Pennsylvania. At present Paul Kanjorski is the only multi-term incumbent Democrat losing consistently in the polls. This race is leaning Republican for now, and needs more support from the DCCC.
Texas 22 (Lampson) - Lampson had a lot on his side in 2006 in Tom Delay's old seat south of Houston. In 2008, former aide to Senator Phil Gramm; US Navy Reserve Officer Pete Olson will be the Republican challenger. Pete Olson is currently favored to win. This would be a great victory if the Democrats can somehow hang onto this seat.
Wisconsin 08 (Kagen) - Steve Kagen is a freshman Democrat in a Republican-leaning district in northeastern Wisconsin. He faces John Gard, Republican Speaker of the State Assembly and his challenger in 2006. This race is a toss-up at this point.
Vulnerable Democrats (5)
Arizona 05 (Mitchell) - While his victory was strong in 2006, the GOP could still mount a strong candidate against Harry Mitchell in 2008. This district in the Phoenix suburbs remains conservative leaning. Maricopa County treasurer, David Schweikert won a crowded Republican primary and will now challenge the freshman Democrat in November.
California 11 (McNerney) - Richard Pombo's defeat in 2006 appeared to be a great step for this district east of San Francisco, but its conservative voters may still change their minds. McNerney's best hope is that his strong clean energy stance will help validate him with the high costs of oil. He faces a reasonably strong challenger in 2008 against Former State Assemblyman Dean Andal. This race leans slightly Democratic at this point.
Illinois 14 (Foster) - After Denny Hastert left office early, Democrat Bill Foster won the district's special election 53-47 over Republican dairyman Jim Oberweis. This seat will remain vulnerable for Foster, but he stands a good chance of holding on in this Republican-leaning seat in northern Illinois.
Kansas 02 (Boyda) - Was Boyda's victory in 2006 a fling for moderate-conservative voters, or will it be a lasting relationship? She then beat incumbent Congressman and former champion miler Jim Ryun. The conservative right wing Ryun lost the GOP primary to moderate state treasurer Lynn Jenkins. This district covers most of the Eastern Kansas border with Missouri, with the exception of Kansas City, Kansas and part of the college town of Lawrence.
Mississippi 01 (Childers) - Travis Childers victory over Greg Davis on May 13th made this the 3rd Republican Congressional loss in 2008. This remains a heavily GOP district, but after two successful victories, the 2nd by 8 points, Childers chances to retain his seat in Northern Mississippi remain strong.
Slightly Vulnerable Democrats (8)
Illinois 08 (Bean) - Melissa Bean survived a strong challenge in 2006 owed in part to the Democratic wave in this district covering the northeast corner of Illinois. She faces wealthy businessman Steve Greenberg in 2008.
Indiana 09 (Hill) - Former and current Congressman Baron Hill won back his seat in southeastern Indiana in 2006, but it was the closest of the three Democratic victories in Indiana that year. He will again face former Congressman Mike Sodrel. Hill has been leading handily in the latest polls.
Kentucky 03 (Yarmuth) - We have a rematch in the battle for Louisville between freshman John Yarmuth and Anne Northrup, the former Congresswoman he defeated in 2006. Although he defeated her soundly in 2006, that doesn't mean facing this well-known candidate is an easy victory.
New York 19 (Hall) - Perhaps catapulted by his appearance on the Colbert Report singing songs from his days in the rock-band Orleans, John Hall's surprise victory over Sue Kelly in 2006 had many in the GOP scratching their heads. He may have skirted trouble in 2008 since the GOP hasn't been able to mount a strong challenger. At present the Republicans are running Iraq War Veteran, Kieran Michael Lalor.
New York 20 (Gillibrand) - In 2008, Kirsten Gillibrand will face some decent GOP opposition in likely GOP candidate Sandy Treadwell, former chairman of the New York State Republican Party. She managed a 6-point upset victory over ethically challenged John Sweeney in 2006 in this swing district in upstate New York.
Oregon 05 (Open Seat) - Darlene Hooley's retirement had opened up this seat for the Republicans. This seat covers the relatively-conservative state capital of Salem and Hooley won over 55% of the vote only once during her tenure. Democrats are running State Senator Kurt Schrader against the 2006 GOP nominee Mike Erickson. However, Erickson is currently struggling due to an abortion scandal that has scarred him with the GOP faithful. This has been enough to knock him down, but not necessarily knock him out yet.
Pennsylvania 04 (Altmire) - As a freshman House member, Altmire is likely to face a tough challenge for re-election against former Congresswoman Melissa Hart, who he beat in 2006 in this swing district northwest of Pittsburgh. However, polls indicate his support has grown since he took office.
Texas 23 (Rodriguez) - Democrats had to wait until December 2006 before Ciro Rodriguez could claim victory in this recently rearranged district in West Texas. He is likely to defend his seat this time, but remains somewhat vulnerable. He will face Republican Bexar County Commissioner Lyle Larson in the general election.
5 Other Democratic races to watch
Connecticut 02 (Courtney), Georgia 12 (Barrow), New Hampshire 02 (Hodes), Ohio 18 (Space), Pennsylvania 08 (Murphy)
Conclusion
As you can see, this is still a strong year for Democrats. The era of the entrenched incumbent is over. A Presidential year only ups the stakes. This year, the GOP is not only a minority party; they are on the ropes and struggling to prevent a Democratic super-majority. Democrats could theoretically have a 100 seat advantage if they gained 32 net seats, which is in the realm of possibility. Although a 50-60 seat advantage is more likely.
Key campaign resources
Cook Political Report
Politics1
Electoral Vote.com
Race Tracker
Daily Kos blogs on House districts
Larry Sabato House race analysis
Poll tracker
CQ Politics
National Journal House Rankings
As far as Nick Lampson, everthing I know is that (a) he has more money than his opponent, and (b) the combination of Obama on top and Noriega running for the Senate, even though both are unlikely to win statewide, will maximize minority turnout in the district, which may in combination with strong support from folks at NASA and among some in business community, be enough for him to hold on.
Some updates from elsewhere, after talking either with electeds or people like Congressional chiefs of staff.
Kissell is expected to be the one pickup in NC. Were Obama to win or come very close statewide, then Daniel Johnson also has a shot. Heath Shuler is totally safe, and is thus helping others.
John Yarmuth is in very good shape in KY. That Northrup ran statewide and lost her primary has diminished her credibility in the district, and people are getting used to Yarmuth. Kind of like the black voters in the Dem primary for his good buddy Steve Cohen in Memphis.
Schmidt is currently benefiting from Palin's presence on the ticket. If Palin does not get seriously tarnished, the additional evangelical vote that turns out may enable her - and possibly also Chabot - to survive, even though Obama is still expected by federal electeds from OH to carry the state. After all, you now have both a Dem Governor and SecState, unlike four years ago.
peace
While a win in Ohio is important, Obama cannot count on Ohio in November. Democrats too often rely on big states, and that was one reason Kerry lost in 2004. That is why Obama has wisely chosen a 50-state strategy. Even if he loses Ohio, he can make up for it by winning another purple state, like Colorado, or Virginia.
Of course it is a great thing that Strickland is Ohio's Governor, rather than Blackwell. Blackwell was striving to be in 2008, what Jeb Bush was in Florida in 2000. Now, thankfully, he is on the sidelines, no doubt wishing he could participate by helping the GOP knock more voters off the roles.
However, Ohio remains more conservative than not. It always surprises me how so many Ohio residents remain loyal to the GOP when their economy has been completely neglected by that same political party.
The only thing the GOP has promised and delivered in Ohio: The state still has no legal gay marriage! I guess that makes up for the lack of health care and jobs and high gas prices, right?
Wolf is low-key enough not to alienate moderates; if he were outspoken like Goode he'd be in more trouble IMO given the makeup of that district. I think the seat will flip when Wolf retires; ditto for Boucher.
Drake would be the second GOP House seat to flip this year. If we get a scathing Troopergate report, another I-bank failing, and a Ted Stevens conviction, the narrative changes and that might just get people in a 'destroy Republicans' mood.
Connelly or Obama will have to screw up to lose. Right now, I think 11 will be the only one to flip.
I think Feder will certainly do better this year than in 2006, but Wolf has been entrenched like Tom Davis, and 10th District voters seem to keep giving him a pass. We should do all we can to knock him off, but if he holds on, I agree the 10th will be a major swing seat when and if he retires in the next few years.
Goode is an intriguing target, and it boggles the mind that polls still aren't showing him to be more vulnerable. We still have two months, so keep hammering!
I am still not sure how the race in the 2nd District is going. Is Nye getting his name out there? How are his fundraising numbers?
Yeah, I'm picky. It matters to me.