Matt Damon has the odds right - I checked.

Age  Death Probability
71   0.030131
72   0.032978
73   0.036086
74   0.039506
75   0.043415 - 4th year of 1st term

If elected, probability McCain will die before 1st term is up: 18%

76   0.047789
77   0.052464
78   0.057413
79   0.062789 - Final year of 2nd term

If elected, probability McCain will die before 2nd ter is up: 33%

Are you willing to take a 1 in 3 chance that Palin will become President?  I'm certainly not.

Add to the actuary tables: history of heart disease in the family (both his father and grandfather died of heart attacks, at 70 and 60, respectively), and McCain's own history of melanoma. I'd be surprised if McCain makes it to inauguration, never mind the end of his first term.

that he still has cancer and it is being kept in remission with chemicals. He also seems to be starting to walk like he may need a walker soon.

Its incorrect to assume the sum of each year's probabilities as the cummulative rate for the 4 years, without factoring the cummulative base for each period.  Considering an 8 year span for example, McCain's chance for death is ~140 out of 2,920, or a cummulative average of 4.8% not 33%.  This isn't the same as compounding interest on a yearly basis.  Smart?  Matt Damon definitely loses his ass in Vegas.  

No, I think Damon is right.  The actuary tables are the odds you will make it to the next year.  You can do simple addition to determine multiple year odds.

Are you saying that of the people aged 71, only 4.8% will die by age 79?  If that were the case, our average lifespan would be well over 100 years.

the former Republican Senator from Rhode Island has some harsh criticisms as well.

From the sit down interview with Steve Clemons of the Washington Note:

I do think she is dangerous for the future of the country having such limited experience and sharing that aggressive, belligerent approach to the world.

That's not in our long term best interests. It's a dangerous planet -- nuclear weapons -- a
tremendous capacity of destruction exists.

It's going to take some wisdom and ability to see gray sometimes, and lessons of the Cold War are that sometimes containment can work.

New generations come along, the Gorbachevs come along -- and we haven't fired missiles at each other and killed each other.

That's the lesson of the Cold War we seem to have ignored, Lessons that worked

http://www.thewashingtonnote.c...

Bush won't negociate with anyone so France has negociated a peace agreement between Russia and Georgia. Its like the U.S. is just some joke they are all ignoring. I think even if someone sets off a nuclear bomb the other countries will figure out some way to get our backs against the wall with sky rocketing oil prices.

Just to show you how stupid th Neocons are: They want to bomb a country which supplies a large portion of the world's oil, a country which is friends with Russia, another large oil producer and nuclear power. Russia is friend with Venezuela which supplies around 15% of our oil (or more). They can all just turn off the oil. Now I ask you is it crazy to consider bombing Iran or what?

We are already in serious decline. Only 24% of Americans have an education above high school level. 25% percent think the Bible is a worthy science text. Are you scared yet?  

Unfortunately, we may be at that point.  This election is crucial; if we elect McCain-Palin, I think we've sealed our fate. If we elect Obama-Biden, we have a chance to fundamentally change direction and possibly turn things around.  Which will it be, America?

First, Bush has already dismantled much of the Constitution. Basically the police voilate people's rights every day now. You can be thrown in jail for looking at a map for Chr-t sake.

The media is a fraud. The FBI is spying on the general public. Nobody knows where all our nukes are and they seem to get loose on a regular basis.

We are running around the world looking for Al-Qaeda. Bombing other countries with drones (no, I don't agree with Obama on this one) and making other countries mad. Running around like crazy people in the hills of Afganistan like the Russians did before their collapse. Trying to extort oil deals from Iraq as a condition for reducing troop levels while thousands marched in the streets of Bagdad last week demanding that the U.S. remove all troops. Meanwhile last summer Transparency International rated Iraq the third most corrupt country in the world, ahead of Zimbabwe.

We are importing college grads to take good jobs because we don't have enough educated people. Illegal immigrants are hired by construction companies to take jobs unskilled Americans used to be able to get.

The fact that we are actually thinking an almost senile old man and a goofy woman from Alaska with no national experience could be elected to the highest offices in the land is not the problem, it the symptom and direct result of many other problems. This has become the possible face of America. Unfortunately to many people the Presidency has become just another version of American Idol.  

sentence.  TV will turn out to be the ruination of America, rotting people's brains instead of "bringing culture to the masses."  Most insidious invention ever?

Unfortunately I am somewhat addicted to the internet.

The real problem isn't TV per se. It is the fact that we have a propaganda driven media. The effect is dependent on who uses it and what they use it for.

Instead of waking up to what has happened to the media and the country in general, many people are simply becoming pod people.

That term pod people comes from the movie "Invasion of the Body Snatchers". The first version of the movie came out during the McCarthy era when the red scare was in full bloom. Apparently people just ate up the McCarthy line and many were trained to see Commies everywhere. They even turned in their neighbors.

In the movie people had their souls and personalities stolen by aliens who took over their bodies. The people then had a sort of vacant effect and their only purpose was to steal the souls of all those who still had them. One's soul could easily be stolen if one went ot sleep (symbolic for watching TV?). What we are seeing now are people who are nothing but shells of humans. Where there should be rational thought and compassion we see hate and nothing but hate, a devouring hate that seeks to destroy all those who do not hate.

"the Post-American World" the goal here is not for America to cease to exist like Rome but become once again a partner to all countries. We still have tremendous capabilities to do good in the world. We just choose not to do good.

You know, my thought is that where we spend more money on defense than the rest of the world combined, we aren't getting our money's worth in dominance in any category.

And the counter will be the standard, tired line of...

"b-b-bbut he's a celebrity."

It's so predictable, so monotonous, so brain-dead boring, so...Republican!

Palin is a distraction and we are falling for it

The person who gets on TV the most will win.

This is great! I get some moron telling me how unqualified Palin is and his only qualification for any job is to pretend to be someone else! Damon (real name?), get a real job and come down to Earth with the hard working little people, you know, the ones that pay your salary for pretending to be someone else.

What qualifies you to make that judgement!? What finer university of learning did you graduate from that would make me believe you know what you are talking about. Stick to movies and out of politics!!!

He probably has the same qualifications of those who think Palin is qualified to be the VP.  It appears that a lot of people think shopping at Walmart is sufficient experience to be VP.