That being said, I'm positive that Kaine will be the nominee. I've been pretty sure he would be for awhile, but now I'm making my prediction public. The Kos people have it wrong. It's going to be Kaine.
Why am I so convinced?
Kaine and Obama have been working together very closely since February. The Obamas and Kaine are more than just co-workers or people united in a common political goal, they are close friends.
The Democrats want Virginia to be blue this year. They want it baaaad. I'm a volunteer for the Obama campaign. I know how badly they want it. Kaine could certainly help make that happen. Kaine is on the conservative side of the Democratic party. He is pro-life and pro-guns. (Although the pro-guns thing is pretty much a given in the South.) This can help Obama with more conservative voters.
It makes no sense to take a Democrat from the Senate with such a close majority right now.
Kaine's director of advance from his 2005 gubernatorial race has signed on with the Obama campaign as director or travel for the veep-nominee-to-be.
Kaine has appearances scheduled with Warner in Virginia on Wednesday and Thursday. This isn't enough by itself, but when you add everything together, it helps.
I could go on for awhile, but I'll leave it at this. Kaine will be Obama's VP pick.
Anyone wanna wager?
Cross posted at MOMocrats. Stephanie also blogs at Lawyer Mama.
Democrats, however, are not more trusted on the issues of Iraq and the abstract "war on terror," which is why the GOP has a lot to gain from hitting us on those issues. Obama's campaign is savvy enough to realize this, which is why I cannot conceive of them heading into the election without a foreign policy or military expert on the ticket.
In that sense, I also disagree with Kos, who states:
It strikes me that any pick designed to cover up a "flaw" in Obama (i.e. "lack of foreign policy credentials") only accentuates those flaws.
First of all, Obama's relative lack of foreign policy and military expertise isn't what I would call a flaw. Anger management issues? Flaw. History of infidelity? Flaw. Lack of foreign policy expertise? Not so much.
Obama's lack of foreign policy and military expertise is, however, clearly something that needs to be addressed (a void that needs to be filled, if you will) if the Democratic ticket hopes to be able to speak with even an ounce of authority on foreign policy and military issues. If we can't speak with authority on those issues, the Republicans win.
I don't believe for a second that the choice of a running mate with military or foreign credentials would accentuate Obama's perceived deficiencies. In fact, I believe it would be a clear indication that Obama is serious about winning, and serious about building the strongest possible ticket, both for the Democratic Party, and for America as a whole.
I'm probably preaching to the choir here, but my point is that Obama has proven himself to be a very smart politician, and, at the end of the day, there's nothing politically smart about Tim Kaine as VP. Surely he realizes that.
My personal pick: Joe Biden
Or select Webb - We have a Democratic Governor that could select his replacement (This is were I am not sure of the law - does the Governor select or is there a special election to replace Webb)?
Then on Obama's 2012 strategy - Kaine is VP - Biden because of age will retire and not run again as Obamas VP.
That way the Democratic party sets it self up for the future Presidential nominee after Obama's terms(2)....
Even with the media having a field day with Georgia, I doubt that stays as an issue into the Fall. Unemployment is rising; we have the highest rate of inflation in over a decade; by the end of the year expect another big bank to fall. Will it be Lehman? Will it be Wachovia? And heating oil prices are still going to be shocking this Winter. S&P has threatened to downgrade U.S. government debt from a triple A rating, not that those jokers' ratings mean anything. But people have faith in those institutions.
I can't imagine that people hurting from our economic slowdown would care more about South Ossetia. And are Americans really eager for another war? For more adventurism abroad?
For me, I'm completely unsure. I read one thing and think something then read another and think it's the other guy. I've got my cell by my side and will content myself to know when I get "the text."
Obama just wants VA so so so much. Which is super! Except the way to do it is to COME DOWN HERE AND CAMPAIGN YOURSELF! Not expect a Governor with 50% favorability to do the job for you.
That being said - while I love Kaine as a person, disagree with many of his policies, and the thought of H.E. William Bolling makes me die immediately - I do believe that when all is said and done, Obama-Kaine will win VA - IF THEY KEEP UP THE GROUND GAME - but certainly with no more than 51%.
They've got my vote grumble grumble...
And, yes, in his 35 years of public service, Biden has said some things that were absurd. There was the Dunkin' Donuts Indian accent wisecrack, the poorly-structured sentence referring to Barack Obama as the first clean black person to run for president, and then there were the B.S. plagiarism charges.
Those three instances are almost always the only ones cited to support the dismissal of Joe Biden as a hopeless gaffe machine, as if every thoughtful, intelligent, or insightful word he's ever spoken is meaningless by comparison.
Lastly, as I said above, the notion that we shouldn't emphasize Barack Obama's lack of foreign policy experience by choosing a VP who is a foreign policy expert is absurd. In my opinion, that's like saying that we're more concerned with saving face and protecting our egos than we are with embracing the fact that we don't know everything and creating a ticket of well-balanced expertise.
I don't think so. This is how rumors get started.
"I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy," Biden said. "I mean, that's a storybook, man."
"I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy."
Jan. 31, 2007: I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy. I mean, that's a storybook, man.
If you could see my forehead right now... it's bright red from repeated slapping.