Make no mistake: arguing that the pitiable "surge" of some 30,000 troops resulted in the mirage of calm in Iraq mocks military power and the essence of operational and strategic art. It's the 80,000 Hamiltons a day, stupid; economic persuasion. Those among us who tuck their chins and accept the bluster that the President was right about the surge have fallen for the smoke and mirrors. They are accepting the assessment of those who have cooked the books because some of the finer aspects of this accounting are lost on them. Have no regard for the strategic acumen of anyone who mouths this mantra or defers to these jesters.
Here is what the surge has accomplished: further erosion of military resources, the commitment of a significant portion of our strategic reserve, and the wasted expenditure of national treasure. The events of the past few days elsewhere in the world have a number of planners on edge, I am certain. I envy them not. Their options are horribly limited because America's military might is squandered in a location that represents a marginal national interest.
Why the nervous calm in Iraq? An operational departure from the direction General Petraeus's predecessors had taken. The blending of non-kinetic aspects of power, primarily economic, but also informational and diplomatic, led to an approach with less in-your-face kinetic force and more indirect persuasion. But make no mistake, the "Sunni Awakening" is more of a jihad dampening; a direct result of something sadly more reliably sustaining and motivating than the spiritual. Reliably we can account for payments of $10 a day for each of the 80,000 Sunni followers who have signed on to what has been called a "neighborhood watch." That's $800,000 a day for which we can account. Trust that there are many other payoffs below the radar and in many forms that would be much more difficult to trace. None of this being footed by the host nation, it would seem.
The odd thing about this is that a group of people who are known to lament, whinge, and draw parallels between the decline of Rome and the America of today have guided us in the direction Rome handled the Huns. Growing weary of the continuous attrition of its military in a never ending insurgency and unable to see light at the end of the tunnel, Rome came to terms with the barbarians by purchasing security; delivering tribute to them in exchange for calm. Eventually unable to raise a capable army, Rome acceded to enlisting the Huns for their defense. You might remember what followed for Rome. Well, now we are organizing and equipping a Sunni militia to defend that blossoming Shi'a majority democracy in Iraq. Just how do you think that is going to work out?
Cross posted at VBDems - Blogging our way to Democratic wins in Virginia Beach! Go RK!