Below is an overview of all the critical seats of contention in 2008. The Democrats have 24 seats that may be vulnerable, with 16 seats that are clearly vulnerable (including the three seats they picked up in 2008), while the Republicans appear to have 47 seats that may be vulnerable, with 30 that are clearly vulnerable.
Among the 30 that are clearly vulnerable is Virginia's 11th District, which now leans Democratic. Virginia's 2nd District, Virginia's 5th District, and Virginia's 10th District are each slightly vulnerable for the Republicans at this point. There are no vulnerable Virginia Democratic Congressman.
Below the flip is a list of key races in 2008.
Highly Vulnerable Republicans (15)
Alaska at large (Young) - Don Young has represented Alaska for a long time, and like Ted Stevens, he appears to have been corrupted by it. He faces a strong primary challenge on August 26th. That leaves an opening for Ethan Berkowitz, former leader of the Democrats in the Alaska legislature and from personal experience, I know him to be very energetic and articulate, and he now has a great opportunity to represent Alaska in Congress.
Arizona 01 (Open Seat) - Rick Renzi's retirement opens up this seat, Arizona's largest geographically, which hosted a worthwhile challenge by Ellen Simon in 2006 against the incumbent Republican. Renzi's indictment makes it even tougher for the Republican candidate, who'll have to distance himself or herself from Renzi. McCain will likely help the GOP candidate a lot, however. The Democratic primary will take place on September 2nd. The Republican candidate will be Sydney Ann Hay, a policy advocate. The likely Democrat is state legislator Ann Kirkpatrick, a woman who speaks fluent Navajo
Illinois 11 (Open Seat) - Weller managed a 10 point victory in 2006, but his retirement opens up this key swing district in north-central Illinois big time for the Democrats. Debbie Halvorson, the Majority Leader of the Illinois State Senate will be the Democrat favored to win. Her Republican challenger has far less name recognition and will have little chance to stop this seat from changing Party hands.
Michigan 07 (Walberg) - As a freshman Republican already having trouble with the press in this southern Michigan district, Walberg is now far more vulnerable than when he ran the first time. His opponent is State Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer, a much stronger and well-financed Democratic challenger than he had in 2008. This race is a toss-up.
Nevada 03 (Porter) - Every two years this Southern Nevada district seems to have more Democrats move into town. Porter barely won last time, and has to convince a new round of voters that he is their best representative. Now he faces 2006 Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Dana Titus who won this district in her Gubernatorial effort in 2006. This race leans slightly Democratic.
New Jersey 03 (Open Seat) - While this was not the closest race in 2006, NJ-03 remains a swing district in south-central New Jersey. The retirement of Jim Saxton provides a great opportunity for a Democrat pick-up by this year's Democratic candidate, State Senator John Adler. He will face Medford Township Councilman Chris Myers. This race is a toss-up.
New Jersey 07 (Open Seat) - Republican Rep. Mike Ferguson barely won re-election in 2006, and with his retirement, this seat is wide open for the Democrats to take it over. The Democrat is 2006 challenger, State Assemblywoman Linda Stender. The Republican is Leonard Lance, the Fmr. State Senate Minority Leader. This is another toss-up.
New Mexico 01 (Open Seat) - The Democrats have a good chance to take this seat which they almost won in 2006. Albuquerque Councilor Martin Heinrich is facing off against Republican Bernalillo County Sheriff & Ex-State Secretary of Public Safety, Darren White. This race is a toss-up.
New York 13 (Open Seat) - With a DUI and other issues plaguing him, the only Republican serving a New York City district has retired. Vito Fossella was likely a strong candidate for re-election if he didn't slip, but that is no longer the case. The Democrats mounted a decent challenge in 2006, and are well positioned to take this seat, which has a strong margin of Democratic registration, despite going big for Bush in 2004. A primary will decide the Democratic and Republican challengers in September.
New York 25 (Open Seat) - This was a tight race in 2006 in this Democratic-leaning district. With Republican Jim Walsh retiring it is likely that 2006 challenger Dan Maffei will be a favorite in this district covering Syracuse. The Republican he'll have to beat is now decided with the GOP running Dale Sweetland, a farmer and former county legislature chair.
New York 26 (Open Seat) - Tom Reynolds retirement offers a strong pick-up opportunity for the Democrats in Western New York State. Republican State Senator George Maziarz appeared to be a strong candidate to keep this seat in GOP hands, but he decided not to run. The Republican candidate is instead businessman Chris Lee. The Democrats will have a primary in September to decide whether popular challenger Iraq war veteran, Jon Powers will be take on the Republicans for this seat.
Ohio 15 (Open Seat) - Deborah Pryce eked out a 1,000 vote victory in 2006 in this district covering parts of Columbus and its western suburbs. Her retirement leaves the GOP in hot water to defend this seat with Republican State Senator Steve Stivers facing Pryce's 2006 challenger, Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy. Early polls show a lead for Kilroy.
Ohio 16 (Open Seat) - Due to the retirement of Ralph Regula, this northern Ohio seat will be an open race for the first time in over three decades. State Senator and Air Force Reserve Major John Boccieri will be the Democrat facing Republican State Senator Kirk Schuring. This race is a toss-up.
Virginia 11 (Open Seat) - Tom Davis' retirement opens the door for the Democratic takeover many have been waiting for in Fairfax and throughout the DC suburbs that make up Virginia's 11th district. Tim Kaine won big here in 2005 in the Governor's race, and Jim Webb won big here in the Senate race in 2006. The Democrats have a high profile candidate in moderate Democrat Gerry Connolly, who will face Republican businessman, Keith Fimian. Gerry Connolly has strong name recognition in the district that makes him formidable against any Republican. Fimian's strength is his ability to raise money and remain well-financed. However, this race is not a toss-up. It leans Democratic.
Washington 08 (Reichert) - A tight race in 2006 is likely to be tight in 2008 in this Democratic-leaning district in suburban Seattle. 2006 candidate Darcy Burner has raised a great deal of money, and has a strong following not just in her district, but nationwide.
Vulnerable Republicans (15)
Alabama 02 (Open Seat) - Although a red district, the retirement of Terry Everett and emergence of Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright as the Democratic candidate creates a real buzz in this southeastern Alabama district. Bobby Bright will face State Representative Jay Love.
Colorado 04 (Musgrave) - Musgrave pulled out a 3-point victory in 2006 and this seat remains up for grabs in a district covering Eastern Colorado and Fort Collins. Betsy Markey, Musgrave's 2008 opponent had a poll come out recently putting her ahead by 7 points. She has been campaigning since the fall of 2007 and has racked up impressive fundraising numbers. Still, the Eastern plains are very conservative and make this a tough district to win for any Democrat.
Connecticut 04 (Shays) - Chris Shays had threatened to retire if not given a ranking committee assignment. At this point, however, it appears that he'll stay in the race. He faces Greenwich Democratic chair Jim Himes from my hometown, who will be the latest in a long-line of Democrats who have tried and failed to knock of this long-time moderate Republican. Still, Shays has faced close races for the last few cycles, and remains endangered.
Florida 24 (Feeney) - As an ethically challenged Republican, Tom Feeney is a clear target in 2008. He received 58% of the vote in 2006, in a race that was pretty much ignored in Florida's eastern coast. In 2006, Feeney faced a man who accused him of fixing his first election. Feeney was one of the characters featured in the HBO movie "Recount" about the 2000 Presidential Election, when he was the incoming Speaker of Florida House. His likely opponent is former State Representative Suzanne Kosmas, who is much stronger than his opponent in 2006.
Illinois 10 (Kirk) - Moderate Republican Mark Kirk survived in this Democratic majority district in 2006 in the Chicago suburbs, but he remains vulnerable in 2008, and will face Dan Seals, his challenger in 2006. Kirk remains well-liked in his district and has been a strong fundraiser. I remember a conversation with a somewhat liberal friend of mine in 2006 that lived in the 10th District. She said she was voting for Mark Kirk because she knew him and had worked for his office in high school. She didn't care that he was a Republican. Multiply her story by many other constituents, and realize why Kirk keeps getting re-elected.
Louisiana 04 (Open Seat) - With Republican Jim McCrery retiring, this seat may be a compelling pick-up opportunity for Democrats in this emerging swing district in Western Louisiana. Democratic and Republican primaries will take place on September 6th.
Michigan 09 (Knollenberg) - Joe Knollenberg's 6-point victory was enough to convince Democrats to spend some real money in this southeastern Michigan district in 2008. Former State Lottery Commissioner and Fmr. State Senator Gary Peters will be his Democratic challenger in 2008. This race will probably get a lot of press, not because of either of these two candidates, but because both will face an Independent by the name of Jack Kevorkian; Hopefully you know who that is, because I am not going to bother explaining it if you don't.
Minnesota 03 (Open Seat) - With the retirement of popular GOP incumbent Jim Ramstad, this swing district in the Minneapolis suburbs becomes a potential pick up for the Democrats. Iraq War veteran Ashwin Madia will face off against Republican state representative Erik Paulsen.
Missouri 06 (Graves) - This seat in Missouri's Northwest corner will present a unique pick-up opportunity with the Democrats running former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes. Sam Graves ran a commercial with Nancy Pelosi, techno music, and what he intended to look like people from the gay community of San Francisco dancing in leather. Barnes countered with a commercial about economic issues claiming that Graves only ran the commercial because had no record to stand on. Will this commercial blowing up in the NRCC's face squelch future Republican attempts to scare voters with gay marriage and the word 'liberal' or will they too have to take on a more populist message?
Missouri 09 (Open Seat) - Another open seat has been created by Kenny Hulshof running for Governor. Although this district in northeastern Missouri is conservative, it should be relatively competitive. State Rep Judy Baker won a heavily contested Democratic primary and will face Republican and former State Tourism Director, Blaine Luetkemeyer.
New Mexico 02 (Open Seat) - Rural New Mexico has generally expected to be a safe bet for Republicans to send representatives for Congress. With the current representative of this district, Steve Pearce running for Senate, it would seem natural for Republican Attorney and former candidate Ed Tinsley to walk away with the seat. But wait...the Democrats aren't giving up that easily. With Pearce's numbers dismal in the Senate race against Tom Udall and Obama consistently polling ahead of McCain in the state, Democrat Harry Teague, the former Do+¦a Ana County Commissioner, is poised for an upset.
New York 29 (Kuhl) - Randy Kuhl has had close races in the last two elections. There is no reason to expect anything different this time, even in rural southwest New York State. He will face his 2006 opponent, Navy Veteran Eric Massa, whom he beat that year by only 6,000 votes.
North Carolina 08 (Hayes) - In 2006, Robin Hayes struggled to keep his seat east of Charlotte, winning by only 329 votes against a relatively unknown challenger, Larry Kissell. He will face Kissell again in 2008.
Ohio 01 (Chabot) - Chabot's 6-point victory in 2006 shows that beating him will be tough in this district in Ohio's southwestern corner, but in 2008 he faces a much stronger challenger in minority whip of the Ohio state House, Steve Driehaus. Chabot may also struggle with his African-American constituents who make up over a quarter of the district's population.
Ohio 02 (Schmidt) - Jean Schmidt faces Victoria Wulsin once again in 2008. This should be another horse race in this conservative southern Ohio district. Jean Schmidt has a serious problem with likeability, which is why she has struggled in a district that Republicans seemingly shouldn't have any trouble with.
Slightly Vulnerable Republicans (17)
Arizona 03 (Shadegg) - John Shadegg has become a man with a target on his back. Ethically challenged and in the heart of McCain country, the Democrats see a chance to force Republicans to spend big in places they shouldn't have to. Attorney Bob Lord is getting strong support from the DCCC for this effort north of Phoenix.
California 04 (Open Seat) - With an ongoing FBI investigation of he and his wife, John Doolittle retired, fearing a loss in this heavily Republican District in northeastern California. Challenger Charlie Brown got close to defeating Doolittle in 2006, and may still have a shot if the Republicans aren't able to stray from Doolittle's ethical issues. However, Republican State Senator Tom McClintock will be a formidable opponent here even though he relocated from Southern California.
Florida 08 (Keller) - This seat was more competitive in 2006 than many expected, and despite being in Central Florida, has a Cook rating of R+3. The August 26th primary will determine who will be the Democratic challenger.
Florida 13 (Buchanan) - Katherine Harris' old seat became a battleground when she left to run her hilariously terrible Senate race in 2006. Democrat Christine Jennings faced off with Republican Vern Buchanan in what became one of the closest House races in the country. Jennings lost by only 369 votes, and afterwards raised questions about accurate vote-counting. Will this coastal district in West Florida be as close this time? That remains to be seen. However, you cannot dismiss a race that close, and assume Vern Buchanan will have an easier time in 2008, even though indications are that he will hold on to his seat.
Florida 21 (Lincoln Diaz-Balart) - In this south Florida district east of Miami, Lincoln Diaz-Balart beat his Democratic challenger by 19 points in 2006, but outspent him 58-1. This time he will have a stronger challenge in former Hialeah Mayor, Raul Martinez.
Florida 25 (Mario Diaz-Balart)...Like his younger brother, Mario Diaz-Balart faces a tough challenge in 2008 with Miami-Dade County Democratic Chair & Political Consultant Joe Garcia running as the Democratic candidate. Mario Diaz-Balart won this district on the southern tip of Florida by 17 points in 2006. Republicans still outnumber Democrats here, but that does not guarantee a victory for the Republicans this time.
Idaho 01 (Sali) - Sali angered a lot of Republicans in his time in the Idaho legislature, but still won this seat by five points in 2006. Sali ran for the seat when Republican Governor Butch Otter ran for Governor. Butch Otter remains reluctant to support Sali, who will have to go it alone once again, trusting that Idahoans simply won't vote for a Democrat no matter who is running. Businessman and attorney Walt Minnick has taken on the Democratic mantle and is vying for the seat.
Minnesota 02 (Kline) - After winning by 16 points in 2006, John Kline may have felt safe in 2008. However, former Mayor of Watertown and current Victoria city manager, Steve Sarvi has stepped in the challenger role this time. This southeastern Minnesota district has a Cook rating of R+3 and will likely become a battleground race this year.
Minnesota 06 (Bachmann) - Michele Bachmann's strong victory in 2006 in this district northwest of Minneapolis seemed like a statement by the voters that they were ready to go further to the right. However, since her election Bachmann has been a staple of unabashedly right-wing commentators on the 24-hour news networks. Raising her profile like this, especially in defense of President Bush, may scare off some moderate conservative voters in her district. Her Democratic challenger is Elwyn Tinklenberg, a former Mayor of Blaine and the Commissioner of Transportation under fmr. Governor Jesse Ventura.
Nevada 02 (Heller) - Dean Heller's 6 point victory in 2006 was strong, but it does not change the fact that growth in Northern Nevada will keep this a swing seat in 2008. Heller will again face his 2006 opponent, Jill Derby, the former head of the Nevada Democratic Party.
Pennsylvania 03 (English) - Lake Erie Arboretum Director Kathy Dahlkemper appears more formidable than many believed. In what may be a sleeper race, Phil English will have to work hard to defend his seat in northeastern Pennsylvania, especially after receiving only 53% of the vote in 2006 in a race that received little attention.
Pennsylvania 06 (Gerlach) - Jim Gerlach pulled out tight victories in the last two elections in this swing district northwest of Philadelphia, and he may face another tight contest this time. His Democratic opponent is Bob Roggio, retired businessman and Democratic Activist. Gerlach is probably in a better position in 2008 than he was in 2006, but he still isn't out of the woods yet.
Virginia 02 (Drake) - Despite losing in the polls with only a few weeks remaining until election day, Thelma Drake was able to keep her seat in southeastern Virginia by pulling out a decades old scandal on Democratic challenger Phil Kellam. The Democrats have another strong candidate to face her in 2008 in former diplomat Glenn Nye. Glenn Nye presently lacks name recognition, which is not a problem for Thelma Drake; however Drake was exposed during the tough 2006 contest and will have to work hard to retain her seat.
Virginia 05 (Goode) - Virgil Goode managed to coast to an easy victory in 2006 despite questions related to his relationship with defense contractor MZM, including illegal campaign contributions, and a defense plant in his district that never panned out. Adding insult to injury, soon after his victory, he went on national media to profess his distaste at a Muslim Congressman being elected in Minnesota! Fortunately, Goode has plenty of opportunities to gaffe it up further in the next three months. He faces a strong candidate in 2008 against Tom Perriello, an International Non-Profit Group Organizer & attorney with an impressive resume for international affairs.
Virginia 10 (Wolf) - Despite a strong victory in 2006, Frank Wolf has a district in Northern Virginia that is trending more and more Democratic. He will face his 2006 opponent, Georgetown Professor, Judy Feder, who has proved herself a strong fundraiser. From personal experience, she is a very sweet lady with a lot of energy and knowledge.
West Virginia 02 (Capito) - Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito won 57% to 43% in 2006, yet this race still remains a target for the Democratic Party. In 2008, Capito will face Former State Director for US Senator Byrd, Anne Barth. Although Barth is a strong candidate, Capito is the only Republican Congressional representative of West Virginia, and will benefit from Obama's weakness in the state.
Wyoming at-large (Open Seat) - The Republicans are clearly better off without Barbara Cubin running, since she only won by 1,000 votes in 2006 in this very conservative state. However, Gary Trauner ran a strong campaign in 2006, and could still be a tough challenge for whoever the Republican is that runs for this seat. The Republican primary will take place on August 19th.
10 Other Republican races to watch
California 50 (Bilbray), Illinois 06 (Roskam), Illinois 18 (Open Seat), Kentucky 02 (Open), Maryland 01 (Open Seat), Michigan 11 (McCotter), Ohio 14 (LaTourette), Pennsylvania 15 (Dent), Pennsylvania 18 (Murphy), Texas 10 (McCaul)
Highly Vulnerable Democrats (10)
Alabama 05 (Open) - The retirement of Bud Cramer in this very "red" district encompassing the northern part of Alabama has created a strong pick up opportunity for the GOP. The Democrats are running state senator Parker Griffith to be Cramer's successor. The Republicans will run businessman Wayne Parker. This race is a toss-up.
California 11 (McNerney) - Pombo's defeat in 2006 appeared to be a great step for this district east of San Francisco, but its conservative voters may still change their minds. McNerney's best hope is that his strong clean energy stance will help validate him with the high costs of oil. He faces a reasonably strong challenger in 2008 against Former State Assemblyman Dean Andal. This race leans slightly Democratic at this point.
Florida 16 (Mahoney) - Tim Mahoney may be fortunate that he probably won't face a big name Republican in 2008, but this remains a tough district for Democrats. The August 26th primary will determine who will be his Republican challenger. This race remains a toss-up.
Georgia 08 (Marshall) - Jim Marshall faced a tough contest in this conservative central Georgia district in 2006. He will face another tough challenge in 2008 against his Retired Air Force Major General Rick Goddard.
Kansas 02 (Boyda) - Was Boyda's victory in 2006 a fling for moderate-conservative voters, or will it be a lasting relationship? She then beat incumbent Congressman and former champion miler Jim Ryun. The conservative right wing Ryun lost the GOP primary to moderate state treasurer Lynn Jenkins. This district covers most of the Eastern Kansas border with Missouri, with the exception of Kansas City, Kansas and part of the college town of Lawrence.
Louisiana 06 (Open) - On May 3rd, Democratic State Representative Don Cazayoux won the Special Election and took this seat from the Republicans. He will have to run again in November. This time, he will not take on former State Representative Woody Jenkins. Instead he faces a strong Republican challenger; State Senator Bill Cassidy. This seat is the Republican's best chance to get back a seat they lost earlier in 2008. However, don't count Cazayoux out. This district covers Baton Rouge and has a large African American population, which may be eager to come out for Obama.
New Hampshire 01 (Shea-Porter) - Carol Shea-Porter pulled off a surprising 51-49 victory in 2006 against the heavily favored incumbent Jeb Bradley. Bradley is running again, and if he wins the primary in September, which is expected, he will give her a strong challenge to get his seat back.
Pennsylvania 10 (Carney) - This year, Chris Carney doesn't have the luxury of running against a man embroiled in a sex scandal involving choking. This seat in Pennsylvania's northeastern corner is strong Republican-leaning, and Carney faces a much tougher challenger this time out against businessman, Chris Hackett.
Texas 22 (Lampson) - Lampson had a lot on his side in 2006 in Tom Delay's old seat south of Houston. In 2008, former aide to Senator Phil Gramm; US Navy Reserve Officer Pete Olson will be the Republican challenger. Pete Olson is currently favored to win. This would be a great victory if the Democrats can somehow hang onto this seat.
Wisconsin 08 (Kagen) - Steve Kagen is a freshman Democrat in a Republican-leaning district in northeastern Wisconsin. He will face John Gard, Republican Speaker of the State Assembly and his challenger in 2006. This race is a toss-up at this point.
Vulnerable Democrats (6)
Arizona 05 (Mitchell) - While his victory was strong in 2006, the GOP could still mount a strong candidate against Harry Mitchell in 2008. This district in the Phoenix suburbs remains conservative leaning and there is presently a crowded Republican field vying for the opportunity to take it back. The Republican primary will be on September 2nd. This race in vulnerable given a potential strong performance for John McCain in his home state.
Arizona 08 (Giffords) - Although she had a strong victory to gain her seat in southeastern Arizona in 2006, Giffords now faces the President of the Arizona state Senate, Tim Bee. This should be an interesting race to see if she can still mount a big win in 2008. This race in vulnerable given a potential strong performance for John McCain in his home state.
Illinois 14 (Foster) - After Denny Hastert left office early, Democrat Bill Foster won the district's special election 53-47 over Republican dairyman Jim Oberweis. This seat will remain vulnerable for Foster, but he stands a good chance of holding on in this Republican-leaning seat in northern Illinois.
Indiana 09 (Hill) - Former and current Congressman Baron Hill won back his seat in southeastern Indiana in 2006, but it was the closest of the three Democratic victories in Indiana that year. He will again face former Congressman Mike Sodrel. Hill has been leading in the latest polls.
Mississippi 01 (Childers) -Travis Childers victory over Greg Davis on May 13th made this the 3rd Republican Congressional loss in 2008. This remains a heavily GOP district, but after two successful victories, the 2nd by 8 points, Childers chances to retain his seat in Northern Mississippi remain strong.
New York 20 (Gillibrand) - In 2008, Kirsten Gillibrand will face some decent GOP opposition in likely GOP candidate Sandy Treadwell, former chairman of the New York State Republican Party. She managed a 6-point upset victory over ethically challenged John Sweeney in 2006 in this swing district in upstate New York.
Slightly Vulnerable Democrats (8)
Illinois 08 (Bean) - Melissa Bean survived a strong challenge in 2006 owed in part to the Democratic wave in this district covering the northeast corner of Illinois. She will have her work cut out for her to retain her seat again. She faces wealthy businessman Steve Greenberg in 2008.
Kentucky 03 (Yarmuth) - We have a rematch in the battle for Louisville between freshman John Yarmuth and Anne Northrup, the former Congresswoman he defeated in 2006. Although he defeated her soundly in 2006, that doesn't mean facing this well-known candidate is an easy victory.
New York 19 (Hall) - Perhaps catapulted by his appearance on the Colbert Report singing songs from his days in the rock-band Orleans, John Hall's surprise victory over Sue Kelly in 2006 had many in the GOP scratching their heads. He may have skirted trouble in 2008 since the GOP hasn't been able to mount a strong challenger. At present the Republicans are running Iraq War Veteran, Kieran Michael Lalor.
Ohio 18 (Space) - This conservative-leaning district east of Columbus was ripe for a
GOP comeback against the fortunate freshman Democrat who rode the Bob Ney corruption/resignation wave to his seat in 2006. Yet the GOP has not been able to secure a strong challenger for this contest and Zack Space has a strong fundraising advantage over his much weaker GOP opponent.
Oregon 05 (Open Seat) - Darlene Hooley's retirement had opened up this seat for the Republicans. This seat covers the relatively-conservative state capital of Salem and Hooley won over 55% of the vote only once during her tenure. Democrats are running State Senator Kurt Schrader against the 2006 GOP nominee Mike Erickson. However, Erickson is currently struggling due to an abortion scandal that has scarred him with the GOP faithful. This has been enough to knock him down, but not necessarily knock him out yet.
Pennsylvania 04 (Altmire) - As a freshman House member, Altmire is likely to face a tough challenge for re-election against former Congresswoman Melissa Hart, who he beat in 2006 in this swing district northwest of Pittsburgh. However, early polls indicate his support has grown since he took office.
Pennsylvania 11 (Kanjorski) - While not a competitive seat in the last few elections, the decision by Hazelton Mayor Lou Barletta to run for this seat this time may result in a close race in northeastern Pennsylvania. At present Paul Kanjorski enjoys a huge fundraising advantage, as Barletta may be done in by the cash-strapped NRCC's inability to give him the backing he really needs. Still, this is clearly a race to watch.
Texas 23 (Rodriguez) - Democrats had to wait until December 2006 before Ciro Rodriguez could claim victory in this recently rearranged district in West Texas. He is likely to defend his seat this time, but remains somewhat vulnerable. He will face Republican Bexar County Commissioner Lyle Larson in the general election.
5 Other Democratic races to watch
Connecticut 02 (Courtney), Georgia 12 (Barrow), Iowa 03 (Boswell), New Hampshire 02 (Hodes), Pennsylvania 08 (Murphy)
Conclusion
As you can see, this is a very exciting year. The era of the entrenched incumbent is over. A Presidential year only ups the stakes. This year, the GOP is not only a minority party, they are on the ropes and struggling to prevent a Democratic super-majority. Democrats could theoretically have a 100 seat advantage if they gained 32 net seats, which is in the realm of possibility. Although a 50-60 seat advantage is more likely. To accomplish this, we need to read up and get educated about our candidates and their opponents and we need to support them the best we can to give them a shot to win.
Key campaign resources
Cook Political Report
Politics1
Electoral Vote.com
Race Tracker
Daily Kos blogs on House districts
Larry Sabato House race analysis
Poll tracker
CQ Politics