Yeah, I'm biased, but I think this is very good news. According to a poll by Zogby for the Wall Street Journal, James Webb - who hasn't even declared and is not well known by most Virginians - trails incumbent Senator George Allen by just 11 points (49.3%-38.3%). Even better, Webb holds Allen under 50%, which is extremely significant given Allen's near-100% name recognition in Virginia. With incumbents like Allen, it's hard to improve in the polls, since everbody already knows who you are. And, combined with the UVA Center for Politics poll showing Allen getting trounced - 49%-32% - by Mark Warner in hypothetical matchup for President, I'd say Allen has reason to be worried.Possibly even more worrisome for Allen, the trend lines since August appear to be very positive for Webb. In the Zogby poll, it appears that Webb - without even campaigning - has narrowed the gap on Allen by around 5 points since August 2005 (note: I don't have access to the prevous poll numbers, so I'm estimating the numbers off the graph). And in a Rasmussen Poll conducted in early December 2005, Webb trailed Allen by 31 points (57%-26%). True, you can't compare different polls, but the Zogby poll showing Allen ahead by just 11 points looks like a strong positive move by Webb (up 20 points?) in the past month or so.
As Josh commented on Corey Hernandez' "Virginia Political Line:"
James Webb, a man who's name nobody in Virginia had even whispered in a political context in over a decade is currently polling only 11 points behind the sitting Senator and Former Governor. Consider that in April of 2005 Lieutenant Governor Tim Kaine was polling 8 points behind Jerry Kilgore.James Webb hasn't even announced and he's in the race.
I think this poll is astounding. If/When Webb announces, Allen will have the fight of his life on his hands.
I agree wholeheartedly with Josh. Watch out, Senator Allen!
Meanwhile, according to Zogby, "Harris Miller, a former telecommunications lobbyist who has formally declared his candidacy, trails Webb in polls."