Just got off phone call that Chris Van Hollen, head of DCCC held with Virginia press, to announce that the 5th and 10th districts have now joined the 2nd and 11th as being part of the most competitive on which the DCCC focuses, the Red to Blue list. In general, Van Hollen noted that there is an interplay between the focus being placed on Virginia by the Obama campaign and the strong campaign being run by Mark Warner for the Senate, and that provides more opportunity in these House races. And clearly, the substantial fundraising by both Perriello (900K plus) and Feder (over a million, more already that all of last cycle) contribute to the decision. There is no specific polling data by CD that contributed to these decisions.
Below the fold I will offer a bit more of what was said.
The previous successes of Warner, Kaine and Webb do play into this decision, just like the success in state races in the Tidewater region last year had already contributed to the decision to put Glenn Nye and the 2nd into this category previously, that plus the fact that Drake only won by 5,000 votes in 2006.
Issue play a big role. Van Hollen clearly sees economic issues playing a role. He noted affirmatively Tom Perriello's economic revival tour across the 5th CD. He commented on some of the votes by the Republican incumbents, in the case of the 2nd Drake's consistent support of big oil companies, Goode voting against the economic stimulus package, and Wolf voting against the effort to restore full pay equity by attempting to reverse the recent Ledbetter decision. In that last case he noted that such a position will probably NOT play well in the suburban portion of the 10th CD, where there are a lot of votes, and not just among women.
With respect to the 10th CD, he noted that both Warner and Obama campaigns are putting a major effort into increasing turnout in NoVa, which of course helps there. And Van Hollen noted strong tendency already in increase in young voter and African-American turnout, with the former being of great help to Perriello, and the latter to Nye in the 2nd (he often talked about the 2nd, but there were no questions on the 11th, I guess because most people including the press presume that as a Democratic pickup).
Van Hollen was asked what this designation means. He talked about getting greater recognition both for additional fundraising and also on the ground support, perhaps from volunteers from adjacent states where the races are not competitive. The DCCC will give support for voter contact, both in person and over the phone, early for voter persuasion, and then closer to the election to turn out identified supporters. He had no recent polling data in any of the districts, and said that the support probably would not include polling.
In the case of Perriello and Nye, the challenge is to get better known. For Nye, Drake is lockstep with Bush and the oil companies, and the loyalty to Bush is demonstrated by the fundraising visit by Rove last week, when he was supposed to appear before the Congreess. Drake also voted against the Webb-Warner GI bill, which Van Hollen suspects may not go over well with the large military presence in the CD. For Perriello, what polling that has been done shows that when people know his message they prefer him over Goode, so the DCCC wants to help him get out his message.
Folks, the Old Dominion is ground zero. We have 4 races now classified as Red to Blue. The Obama campaign is heavily targeting the Commonwealth. And the Warner campaign will keep pedal to the metal to help out both up ticket for Obama and down ballot for the House candidates.
It is a good day to be a Democrat in Virginia.
Peace.
"The DCCC recognizes that this district is ready for change, and I'm the candidate who will deliver that change," says Feder, "We are excited about the recognition and support the Red to Blue program brings, it's going to give us the momentum and the resources we need to win in November."The program introduces Democratic supporters to competitive candidates in order to help expand the fundraising base for these campaigns. In 2006, Red to Blue raised approximately $22.6 million for campaigns nationwide with an average of $404,400 per campaign.
Feder, a nationally recognized health care expert and former Dean of the Georgetown University's Public Policy Institute, has raised nearly twice as much money as she had at this point in 2006 when she gave Wolf his closest race in 24 years. She continues to gain momentum having just come off her strongest fundraising quarter this cycle. The race in VA-10 has also recently been upgraded by both the Cook Political Report and CQ Politics.
"I've said this before and I'll say it again, anyone who thinks this is just going to be a replay of 2006 is kidding themselves," said campaign manager Luke McFarland.
"The momentum we are feeling around this district is incredible, and this vote of confidence from the national party will help us reach even more voters over the final 94 days," Perriello said. "This will reinforce the wonderful commitment of all of our volunteers, as they knock on thousands of doors and tithe hundreds of hours to our local charities. People here want a leader who will fight as hard every day to bring jobs back to Southside as they are working just to get by. I pledge to be that leader.""The candidates for change being named to the DCCC Red to Blue program are running solid campaigns and are committed to making things easier for middle class families in their districts," said Chris Van Hollen, Chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. "With less than 100 days to make their case for change to voters in their districts, the Red to Blue program will give these candidates the financial and structural edge to be even more competitive in November."
And from what I heard, that had no relevance. His fundraising, the grassroots enthusiasm he is building, the fact that Virgil voted the wrong way on economic stimulus in a district that is really hurting while Perriello is focusing on economics in his current round of outreach were all much more important. So is the fact that the Obama campaign is making such a strong commitment to the state.