Gentleman's Agreement Between Bolling and McDonnell for 2009?

By: aznew
Published On: 7/29/2008 12:33:47 PM

Should Tim Kaine get the nod to be Obama's VP, chances of a divisive GOP primary in 2009 to match the coming Deeds/Moran battle have teasingly been dancing in the eyes of some of the more notable members of Virginia's progressive blogosphere, such as Lowell and Vivian Paige.

But Larry Sabato says it won't happen.

From a special report on Kaine I just received:

Under an agreement previously reached with the now-presumptive 2009 GOP gubernatorial nominee, Attorney General Bob McDonnell, Bolling would be the Republican nominee for a full term. (The election is in November 2009.) Bolling had side-stepped a divisive GOP primary with a grateful McDonnell in order to run for reelection to the lieutenant governorship, but part of their gentleman's agreement--confirmed by both men to me at the time--guaranteed Bolling the nomination if he should succeed to the top spot before the June 2009 nominating deadline. Thus, for the first time since 1852, an incumbent Governor, Bill Bolling, would seek reelection.

(A little more on the flip)
Sabato's scenario gets worse:

While mistakes in office could always deny him the prize, the presumption would be that Virginians would not want three governors in one year. Thus, Kaine's departure could deliver a five-year Bolling governorship, quite possibly followed by a term of McDonnell. (The modern Virginia tradition has been to give a party at least two consecutive terms in the governor's chair, even though the one-term-and-out rule means that different people would be elected every four years.) The Bolling term would include the redistricting year of 2011, possibly enabling Republicans to tenure in their state legislative and U.S. House incumbents for another decade.

Sabato's entire analysis of the possible Kaine pick is extensive and worth a read. I get Crystal Ball as an email, so I can't link, but if you email me (aznew@comcast.net), I'd be happy to forward it along to you.  

Comments



Sabato's Crystal Ball... (Eric - 7/29/2008 1:30:41 PM)
Here is a link to the webpage (which is the same as the email)...  http://www.centerforpolitics.o...


Thanks, Eric. n/t (aznew - 7/29/2008 1:34:30 PM)


Bolling is still the weaker candidate... (doctormatt06 - 7/29/2008 1:50:48 PM)
I'd feel better going up against him versus going up against "call people child-molester coddlers McDonnell"


The curveball (aznew - 7/29/2008 2:00:35 PM)
would be he would be running as an incumbent, apparently without opposition in his own party, while the two top Democrats in the state, both of them in the GA, duke it out for a nomination.

Kaine leaving Bolling in charge when it looked like he might be governor for one year and, hopefully, launching a GOP battle for the nomination, made it barely tolerable.

If Sabato is correct, then I don't see how Kaine can leave.

And it's not just a matter of him anointing Deeds or Moran the Democratic candidate on his way out the door either, even assuming he could do so, which I doubt.



You're starting to scare me (Barbara - 7/29/2008 5:39:52 PM)
What I don't see is whether McDonnell runs again for AG.  Any idea?   Before Bolling announced he would run for Lt. Gov. again, the only person I remember announcing a run was, God forbid, Corey Stewart--the self-described "preeminent Republican in Northern Virginia"--which horrifies me.  If McDonnell runs again as AG, the Lt. Gov. slot is open, correct?  I might have to run myself.


That's a Good Question (JMU Duke - 7/30/2008 10:04:40 AM)
About the LG seat. I don't think there's any doubt that Bolling and McDonnell have come to terms with this already, and that should Bolling become Governor he will get the nomination in 2009 unopposed, while McDonnell runs for re-election as AG.

As for the LG race, Stewart is a good guess to run, although his stock has fallen somewhat since he ruined his county. Jay O'Brien was making noise about doing the same this winter. Does anyone think that Cooch might move down and run there? He must know that his seat is moving away from him with every passing day, the open LG seat might be the best option available to him.

This could have a serious impact on the Dem ticket as well. If McDonnell runs as an incumbent would that dissuade Steve Shannon? I hope not, he's off to a great start, but that would be a more difficult race than running against Cooch or Brownlee.

Lastly, I know you guys like Bowerbank, but would an open seat for LG attract a more established candidate? It's a shame that our bench has gotten pretty thin in just a few years.