Courtesy of Swing State Project, here are updated ratings for Virginia congressional races and the Warner-Gilmore race:
Thelma Drake has always been damaged goods at best, winning her first election in 2004 with 55% of the vote and hanging on with just 51% in 2006. Democrat Glenn Nye has kept things relatively close in the cash-on-hand department and raised just $19K less than Drake this past quarter. What's more, he was recently added to Red to Blue. On top of that, black voters have typically turned out in a proportion smaller than their numbers would suggest - the district's black population is 21% - but that may be about to change. With Obama energizing folks at the top of the ticket and promising a massive registration campaign, this could tilt the balance in VA-02.
*VA-05 (Goode): Safe Republican to Likely Republican
Democrat Tom Perriello has raised some good scratch here: $310K in the last quarter. That's less than incumbent Virgil Goode's $390K, but cycle-to-date, Perriello has actually brought in more money ($911K to $818K). That alone is enough to make this R+6 seat a closer race.
*VA-11 (Open): Tossup to Lean Democratic
While lagging behind in the money race after an expensive primary, Democrat Gerry Connolly is far ahead of Republican Keith Fimian in terms of name recognition due to his tenure as chairman of the Fairfax Board of Supervisors. Connolly's name recognition, combined with Northern Virginia's rapid Democratic trend and the downballot boost provided by the Obama-Warner coordinated campaign give Connolly the early edge here.
Virginia (Open): Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic
Under the rubric we use, if a race is in a "likely" category, that means "an upset cannot be completely ruled out." We no longer think an upset is imaginable in Virginia under any reasonably foreseeable circumstances. Mark Warner is still wildly popular while Jim Gilmore's name is mud. Warner has a 44-to-1 cash advantage while Gilmore barely eked out a win at a party convention his supporters had orchestrated to favor him. Obama now leads by three in a state that Kerry lost by more than eight. Oh, and Warner himself, who has never led by less than twenty, has now staked out a nearly thirty-point advantage.
Obviously in politics, anything is possible. A hidden scandal could always destroy a candidate at the last minute. But such unknowns can't factor into race ratings - if they did, no race could ever go into the "safe" category. What's more, Warner is a highly skilled politician who is adept at playing it safe; he is probably among the least likely to get ambushed by a late-breaking surprise. If he were to somehow lose at this point, it would be one of the biggest shockers in political history. But we feel quite confident that nothing like that is going to happen, and that Warner will cruise to victory.