Dreading 2009...and What to Do About It?

By: Lowell
Published On: 7/20/2008 7:36:55 AM

Increasingly, what I'm hearing from Democratic politicians I talk to is a sense of anxiety, edging into dread, when they think about 2009.  Why would that be, you might ask, given the fact that Virginia Democrats have been gaining rapidly in recent years?  Several factors.

1. Over and over again, I hear people say under their breaths that Tim Kaine is a really good guy, they like him a lot, but his governorship has not been a success (I hear stronger language than that, actually, but let's just leave it at that for now).  If true - and, in fairness, Kaine still has a bit of time to achieve something major before he becomes a lame duck by next spring/summer - this means that it will be very difficult for Democrats running in 2009 to say they're a continuation (as in 2005's "Tim Kaine is Mark Warner Part II" argument) of a great success story.

2. George W. Bush will be gone, most likely Democrats will be in charge in Washington, DC.  This means that in 2009 here in Virginia, Democrats won't be able to say things like "McDonnell=Bush," as we did in 2005 ("Kilgore=Bush") and 2006 ("George Allen votes 96% of the time with George W. Bush"). In 2009, Virginia Democrats will have to win it on their own, without the convenience of being able to point their fingers at the Reckless Republicans in charge in Washington, DC.

3. The "low hanging fruit" has been picked. The entire House of Delegates is up for election in 2009, but very few seats will be truly competitive. That's because, at this point, Democrats have picked almost all the "low-hanging fruit" that was available.  A few more pieces of fruit - Dave Albo, Tom Rust, and Jeff Frederick (if he vacates his seat), for instance - may be available.  On the other hand, Democrats may have to defend some of the seats they picked up in 2007.  We'll see, but right now it looks like it's going to be very tough for Democrats to pick up 6 seats in 2009 and take control of the House of Delegates prior to redistricting in 2011.

4. Last but certainly not least, what I hear overlaying all this is high anxiety, bordering on dread, over the increasingly nasty Democratic race for the party's gubernatorial nomination.  Right now, this talk is largely behind the scenes, but last week's flareup between the Moran and Deeds' camps appears to have lit a fire under some Virginia Democrats' butts. In short, they feel like it's very possible that if Deeds and Moran keep this up for another 11 months, they will destroy each other, bankrupt each other, and hand "Taliban Bob" the governor's mansion on a silver platter. As with me, most of these people see both Brian Moran and Creigh Deeds as good Democrats who would make potentially excellent governors of Virginia.  However, they say, if the "winner" comes staggering out next June, bloodied and broke, having aimed their fire on each other and not on the Republicans, they worry that Bob McDonnell will win by 10 points in November. They add that this would make it all but impossible for Democrats in marginal House districts to win; as they say, how often does a House candidates outperform the top of the ticket by 10 points?

So, what do these Dreading Democrats want? One said to me that Brian and Creigh should just flip a coin to determine the nominee. Everyone seems to want the Moran-Deeds debate to focus on their visions for the future, the issues, and going after Bob McDonnell - NOT each other, and certainly NOT in such personal terms. In short, the Democratic electeds I've been talking to want an elevated, positive Democratic contest for governor, and they want that to start immediately.  They want the candidates to tell their staffs to tone it down, dial it back, any other cliche you can think of.  They definitely do NOT want to see the Deeds-Moran race for 2009 heat up before Virginians go to the polls in November 2008 for President, Senate, and House of Representatives.  

The only question is, how do they make this happen?  With that, I'm hoping to start a discussion here on the "internets."  What ideas do you have along these lines?  Do you agree with the Virginia Democratic politicians I've been talking to that a vicious gubernatorial nomination fight could deep-six Dem's in '09? How can we head this off? Thanks.


Comments



Well if it goes like the 11th CD race did in our primary, heaven help us. (Used2Bneutral - 7/20/2008 8:26:41 AM)
It is critical for us to keep from giving our own candidates bloody noses. As you have so eloquently put it, we can't afford to damage our own candidates and waste HUGE amounts of money and resources, not to mention the bad feelings among the multitude of voters not just the activists that have to be repaired after each one of these "Tiffs".  That said, why not start with the real Democratic blogs (like RK) holding back on any primary endorsements or paid for advertisements until after the primary.

Also, discourage activities that look like the irresponsible junk that Ben did on Connolly last quarter. The Repugs will do a fine job without our help if our candidates don't measure up. I'm not saying that we not discuss the issues or even censor content, but at least be responsible enough to carefully decide whether or not to "hit the Post" button when we report on stupid personal attacks or non-public verbal exchanges between candidates or their families that may very well be taken out of context.

We have a very important weapon here, it keeps us walking in lock step and very hard to beat as was shown in the Webb/Allen race when Maccaca hit..... The blogs and the good they can do are here to stay and gathering importance. What was it my grandma said to me (a long long long time ago) "if you can't say something nice, don't say anything at all". Public "Silence" alone can be a potent weapon.... You got a problem with a candidate, talk to their campaign and keep talking to them until it gets fixed, but keep it in the family....



There Is an Example To Follow (Elaine in Roanoke - 7/20/2008 8:39:03 AM)
If Deeds and Moran would just follow the example of Chap Petersen, Phil Puckett, Viola Baskerville and Leslie Byrne in their primary for Lt. Gov. in 2005, a primary wouldn't have to be devisive. Unfortunately, the egos of those two fellows just may be bigger than all four of the others combined.

Right on about how the 11th primary turned into a built-in Republican ammunition dump for the November election!

The "netroots nation" has an obligation to stop short of a scorched earth approach to supporting your candidate at primary time. Ben forgot that Leslie just might lose...



Agree with Elaine, the last VP race.. (KathyinBlacksburg - 7/20/2008 12:34:41 PM)
was a model for civility in campaigning.


Our best hope is for Kaine to get a cabinet job in (martin lomasney - 7/20/2008 9:29:43 AM)
Obama's administration. Then let the other guys have an uncomfortable situation.

Neither Deeds nor Moran is a thrilling choice, like Warner or Beyer.  Neither is an obvious choice either, as Kaine was.

Hey, what's Don Beyer doing next year?



I think there's a 90% chance that happens (Chris Guy - 7/20/2008 2:04:57 PM)
Sure he'd have one more year left as Governor, but if he stays on what does he have to look forward to after '09? Both Senate seats will be occupied by Democrats. Kaine would be an idiot to turn down the offer.


Flipping a coin? (aznew - 7/20/2008 10:18:15 AM)
Vivian Paige suggested the other day that Tim Kaine might use this method to resolve the contest. I thought at first she was being being hyperbolic, but she assured me she was not.

Here is my problem with this kind of solution. It is, well, too flip.

Electing a governor is serious business, and I just don;t think it ought to come down to a game of chance.

But here is an idea: RK often spearheads petitions and the like on issues. How about a Virginia netroots petition for both of these candidates expressing our concern about the tenor of the campaign and the potential for becoming divisive at the very time Democrats need to be together and energized. This petition can recognize that each candidate should feel free to criticize the other on any issue it thinks are relevant to voters, but we ask that in doing so it be with an eye toward the November elections.

If anyone thinks this is a good idea, I would be happy to participate with others off-line in drafting something.

I think each of these candidates understand how important the Netroots will be to them. Regardless of which candidate we support, perhaps many of us here and elsewhere in the Virginia blogosphere can agree upon the need for a campaign that is as non-destructive as possible.

Then we need to enforce it.

I support Creigh Deeds, but if his campaign astroturfs on this website, I want no part of it.

I think it is okay to criticize an opponent, but stick to the facts.

Why not be respectful? I thought the Deeds spokesman raised a legitimate issue regarding the possible manipulation of spending by Moran's campaign to make the campaign seem financially stronger than it is -- the defense of everybody's doing it doesn't cut it for me -- but he did so in an unnecessarily inflammatory way, IMHO.

I expect we will have our arguments over who started what, what criticism is factual and which is personal, but we should all keep our eyes on the objectives -- electing a Democratic governor in 2009 and gaining control of the HoD.



I think the petition is a good idea. (Lowell - 7/20/2008 11:41:16 AM)
Let me know what you're thinking.  Thanks.


So do I (and soon) n/t (KathyinBlacksburg - 7/20/2008 12:31:23 PM)


I forgot to add (KathyinBlacksburg - 7/20/2008 12:33:11 PM)
I agree with aznew that flipping a coin is too flip.  Vivian has lots of great ideas, but I respectfully suggest this is not one of them.  I think it diminishes the real reasons (issue-wise) that voters might prefer one or the other.


I never said flipping a coin (Vivian J. Paige - 7/20/2008 6:57:27 PM)
Damn, I really wish you all would read what I write and not what you think I wrote.  


Yes, my error (aznew - 7/20/2008 9:05:39 PM)
But Vivian, you did say the following:

Kaine could sit the two of them down and work out a compromise, drawing straws if necessary.

(This was in the context of discussing Kaine as a VP pick who, once freed of the need for support from both Deeds and Moran to advance his agenda as governor, could presumably settle the matter)

I responded that I considered this hyperbole, but you responded:

Not hyperbole. Realistic. That's the way things get done.

So, flipping a coin, drawing straws. With all due respect, the point is exactly the same, isn't it?



Realistic that Kaine should sit them down (Vivian J. Paige - 7/20/2008 11:01:41 PM)
Take things in context, aznew. You seemed to think (without reading my post, I might add) that Kaine would be playing "king maker" in sitting the two of them down and trying to work out a compromise. That was the point of my comment, and it certainly is not hyperbole to say that Kaine should intervene.

If the only option at the end of such a conversation is to draw straws, then that is what should happen. That's what I meant. Again, read what I wrote in context.

Look - I've been working on and talking about getting this situation resolved since long before either candidate announced - starting about two years ago, if memory serves. I'm totally frustrated that it has gotten to this point. This crisis has been looming a long time and it's a shame that folks are only starting to pay attention to it now.



I'm honestly not intentionally taking you out of context (aznew - 7/21/2008 8:52:59 AM)
Vivian - If I am taking you out of context, it is not intentional, so I sincerely apologize.

But let me get away from the side issue of the method that Kaine or anyone might use to resolve this. We have two good candidates who want to be governor and who think they would be the best candidate. I'm all for them getting together, with Tim Kaine if they choose, with Mark Warner, whomever, and see if there is some compromise with which both would be happy that can avoid the primary.

But if not, I will continue to respect both these guys and happily say, "Make your case to the voters." That does not have to be a bad thing, as long as they are able to do it honestly, respectfully and constructively, and as long as they will not only abide by the result, but wholeheartedly support the winner.

I think those of us in the blogosphere, who by choice follow politics consistently and closely and, even if we don't agree, have a good grasp of the entire playing field, can play a constructive role in perhaps setting the boundaries of this debate. Sure, the candidates can decide not to pay attention, or decide that the influence of blogs is relatively limited in the numbers of voters it reaches.

I don't agree. By the mere dint of our interest and involvement, and our unified objective (beating McDonnell in 2009) we are in a unique position, collectively, to affect the tenor of this race, IMHO.  



I said it. (spotter - 7/20/2008 7:17:34 PM)
I said flip a coin.  Don't like that?  How about rock, paper, scissors?  That's what I'll have to do to decide who to vote for, because think either one of them would do a great job.


Lowell, you missed one other factor, FWIW (aznew - 7/20/2008 10:23:07 AM)
And that is Virginia's 30-year plus record of electing a Governor from the party other that the last winner of a presidential election. If Obama wins, it mitigates toward a GOP victory for 2009.

I once spoke to Creigh Deeds about this during an interview for a story. He didn't profess to know why this phenomenon occurred. He theorized that in President's first years there is often difficulty in transforming campaign rhetoric into actual policy, and given Virginia's proximity to the national political scene, this difficulty has an effect on our gubernatorial elections.



In 2001 the issue was Gilmore (Chris Guy - 7/20/2008 2:08:41 PM)
Bush had astronomically high approval ratings in Nov. that year. Warner ran against Gilmore's record and won. If Obama has a rough first year in office AND Kaine's unpopular, Pat Robertson's boy could walk into the Governor's mansion in 2009.


I'm skeptical . . . (JPTERP - 7/20/2008 2:14:58 PM)
about McDonnell running away with any statewide office in 2009.  

The Robertson connection might help him in parts of the state, but if it had been more widely known in NoVA in 2005 he would not have won the A.G. slot.  The fact is, a lot of people just didn't know.  In 2009 odds are they will.  They'll also learn about McDonnell's "achievements" as A.G. -- pretty much non-existent.  

McDonnell has strong appeal with social conservatives, but limited appeal with less ideologically focused fiscal conservatives and social moderates.



The opposing party winning the governor's mansion (aznew - 7/20/2008 2:21:45 PM)
goes back to 1977.


If I Could Speak to the Candidates, I'd Say Stop Attacking Each Other and Persuade Us! (AnonymousIsAWoman - 7/20/2008 2:10:54 PM)
A good spirited primary can be healthy for both Virginia and the Democratic Party. But not if it descends into another mudslinging divisive contest where both candidates end up bloodied and wounded for the general election. Because of that, I like the idea of a petition urging the candidates to stick to the issues and avoid needlessly divisive personal attacks.  Moran and Deeds should focus on articulating their vision for Virginia. Heres' what I would say to them:  

Tell us where you want to take us and then let us decide if that is where we wish to follow you.

Instead of attacking each other, persuade us why you are the one we should vote for.  Concentrate on telling us where you stand on the issues and what you will do to improve the quality of life for all citizens of the Commonwealth.

The focus should be on how the next governor wishes to serve the citizens not on who can best survive the usual attack and spin machine.



The phrase "a positive primary" is NOT an oxymoron (Kris Amundson - 7/20/2008 2:19:50 PM)
On a district level, Margi Vanderhye and Rip Sullivan ran a positive, issues based primary last year. Both of them knew that the eventual winner of that campaign was going to be in a race with a well-funded opponent and both agreed that they would not provide fodder for the general election. Kudos to both of them.

Oh, and Rip endorsed Margi about 15 seconds after the votes were counted.  



Agreed, that was an excellent primary (Lowell - 7/20/2008 3:17:26 PM)
between two superb Democrats.


Need leadership (Kindler - 7/20/2008 3:26:53 PM)
What happens in a city or state with strong party leadership is that the leader (mayor, governor, party chair, etc.) sits the two candidates down in a room and says: Look, so and so, you are better equipped to be the candidate the governor.  Such and such, you have an outstanding future, and we're going to give you this big fat plum if you agree to run for lieutenant governor instead.

Okay, I grew up in Chicago, so maybe we're talking about an alternate universe here.  But do we have any kind of leader in VA who can play that role?

(I do recall that back in the days when Jim Moran was in scandal trouble and some very prominent Dems said that they were going to run against him, all of them ended up pulling out quietly and mysteriously, which makes me wonder who talked to them...)



That's what I've been advocating for some time (Vivian J. Paige - 7/20/2008 6:59:06 PM)
The party leadership should have done this long ago.  


Let start a draft Beyer petition (martin lomasney - 7/20/2008 7:45:55 PM)
Deeds and Moran are light weights.

Beyer could beat McDonnell!



I'm tuning both out completely until Nov... (proudvadem - 7/20/2008 7:58:24 PM)
and encourage others to do the same.
Seriously, we have some GREAT congressional candidates, Mark Warner and Barack Obama. My full attention is on these races.
As The Green Miles pointed out in a different post- Glenn Nye in the 2nd is a strong candidate and can take out Thelma Drake. That's where my attention is- not on two candidates who seem to be doing little more than "D__K Waving" (which Vivian Paige DID write and WAS right!).

Let's not lose sight of the forest for the trees. We have a lot at stake this year and maybe if enough of us just say "enough is enough" and ignore these two- they will tone it down. I won't hold my breathe for party leadership to step in.

After a victorious November- then I'll be willing to listen to Deeds and Moran. But for now- we have a lot of work to do for 2008!!



Guess I've been out of the loop here (Teddy - 7/20/2008 8:58:23 PM)
so someone please let me know exactly how bad the dissing has become between our two cadidates for governor. I agree, it is a shame in one way we have two such outstanding candidates for the same office, ah----the embarrassment of riches! I certainly do not want them to kill each other off (figuratively speaking, of course) Somehow I've missed or ignored any mud slinging. Maybe, if this is true, their individual donors should let their candidates know they will not tolerate a destructive primary?  


See (Lowell - 7/21/2008 7:24:58 AM)
here, for instance.


I completely agree... (BlueSWVA - 7/20/2008 9:03:17 PM)
When the time comes, I want the candidate who is willing to stand up for our democratic principles and who is willing to lead Virginia in a manner that advances our economic, environmental, educational issues. Someone who addresses health care for all of Virginia, on and on.  I understand the need to get an early start, but   our main objective this year is crystal clear.  

Electing Sen. Obama President, Mark Warner Senator and giving our congressional candidates a real shot in one of the worst political climates for Republicans in my lifetime.  

I want to see ALL of our "presumptive 2009 candidates" united behind and supply volunteers to our 2008 candidates.   If we lose in 2008, the race for Governor, Lt. Gov and Attorney General in Virginia will suddenly feel like a Board of Supervisor contest.  

I'll make my mind up about the 2009 candidates based, to a certain extent, on their actions in 2008.  I'm waiting for the Moran for Obama, Deeds for Obama, Bowerbank for Obama, etc. signs.      



At the convention (aznew - 7/20/2008 9:09:50 PM)
Both Deeds and Obama made clear they were behind Obama. When I have seen Creigh talk since then, he always mentions the fact that 2008 is the priority.

I haven't seen Brian Moran, but I'll bet he is doing the same.

But the fact is that these guys are running next year. They have raised several million dollars, and they will both be seeking advantages during the course of this year where they can.

There is nothing wrong with that, IMHO.



Moran should defer to Deeds (notwaltertejada - 7/20/2008 10:38:38 PM)
Creigh has already shown that he is very capable of winning statewide through the razor thin 2005 margin. Moran has yet to prove himself outside of the beltway.  


I agree with you (Chris Guy - 7/21/2008 12:17:44 AM)
I think Brian jumped the gun in running for Governor now. He could try for Speaker if we win back the House of Delegates, State Senate, his brother's seat when he retires from Congress, plus LG or AG obviously.


Missing the picture (tvhost - 7/21/2008 7:23:37 AM)
I noticed your little bumper sticker for Cuccinnelli. No offense but that one has not been decided yet. On the Southside and other places folks think that Brownlee has a good chance. On the last campaign finance records it seems that Brownlee kicked his ? on fundraising and he just announced his intentions a few months ago. I am not familiar with Cuccinnelli but I know a little about Brownlee and I feel he may have a good chance.

Getting to the Democrats I wish that they would at least give us some choices to start looking at. I do not consider myself a Republican or a Democrat. I have friends in both parties. I select my person by what that person is going to do for me. Not by what the party says they are going to do. So far it has worked for me.  



It wasn't "my little bumper sticker for Cuccinelli" (Lowell - 7/21/2008 7:27:15 AM)
That's just an image - not created by me, simply one I grabbed off Google images - to illustrate the potential danger of an ultra-divisive Democratic gubernatorial primary.