Buying Time

The first four years of military operations in Iraq consisted of "search and destroy" missions that turned many Iraqis into insurgents. Accompanied by small pockets of Al-Qaeda, Shia death squads, Sunni militias, and civil war, the prospect of a free and stable Iraq appeared to be impossible. With an impotent Congress unwilling to check a stubborn President determined to inflict more damage through his own incompetence, things seemed hopeless in Iraq. I have always been one of the harshest critics of the war and I was no fan of the troop surge by any stretch of the imagination. However, the "clear and hold" strategy that coincided with the surge did reduce the level of violence on the ground. This bought us more time on the game clock to decipher a real exit strategy. However, the fragile success of the surge can be easily reversed. Now the issue is sustaining the current conditions long enough for us to start bringing our troops home.

Political progress has been demonstrated in Al-Anbar by turning control over to the Sunnis. Iraq's Prime Minister Al-Malaki stated that the United States must set a timetable to start withdrawing our troops. This sounds very promising but there is a flip-side to the coin.  
Many of the same people who control Al-Anbar are former Sunni insurgents who were killing our troops on behalf of Al-Qaeda until they decided it was more beneficial for them to deal with us. The Mahdi Army, controlled by Al-Sadr, remains organized and quite strong magnifying the Iranian influence over the Shia population. Thousands of insurgent fighters with American blood on their hands are now on our payroll as security guards and their desire to be nonsectarian is unproved. Most of Iraq's cities have primitive civil institutions that are unable to provide services to the population. The essential economic diversities that are needed to appease the many sectarian groups are lagging. In addition, the remaining Sunni vs. Shia rivalry has been subdued by penetrable barriers in Baghdad communities.

The surge was intended to be a short-term military tactic not a long-term strategy. As General Petraeus said "there is no military solution." Hopefully, the American people have not forgotten that established fact. The matter of sustaining the current state of affairs in Iraq depends solely on the willingness of the American people as a whole to "kick in" and sacrifice.

The price of occupying Iraq is 3 billion dollars per week, along with loss of life and limb, and a broken military. The time has come for the "stay the course" element in America to come to grips with the reality that the maintenance costs of this occupation will hit the home front.

For experimental purposes let's assume that all those who support the war (while choosing not to serve) now understand that this can no longer be a spectator sport. No more chest beating or flag waving in a display of false patriotism that is at the expense of other people's lives -- and shopping is definitely out of the question. Instead the President calls on them to enlist in the Army or Marine Corps. If they are too old, their kids are called upon to serve. They will support the government raising taxes and will buy war bonds to pay for the war they so ardently support. Just imagining this hitting the fan blades is entertaining in a sense of curiousness to see how many red blooded Americans would be up for the "Pepsi challenge." In reality this would be a morale killer for the American people causing them to lose their nerve before achieving the "victory" they love to chant.

No one can be sure whether or not Iraq will succeed or fail in the absence of the US military. The conditions in Iraq are so fluid and unpredictable that victory or defeat can't be defined. But with the unknown comes the certainty that we must start the full withdrawal of our military as soon as President Bush leaves office. The well has run dry in terms of the resources needed to continue this mission and the American people in their "heart of hearts" are not in this for the long haul. If we were told the truth from the beginning that this would be a multiple decade conquest we never would have signed on.

The purpose of the surge was to bring about breathing room for political reconciliation to take place so our military can leave Iraq. Suffice it to say that the surge did all it could do to create those conditions. The surge forces have supposedly been redeployed, yet we remain 150,000 strong in Iraq.

Last summer I met with a very influential Republican Congressman who told me "If political progress is made in Iraq due to the surge that is all the more reason to leave. If not, that is reason to leave too." Well, time is ticking.  

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