Obama: 49%
McCain: 36%
Nader: 5%
Barr: 2%
That's a 13-point lead for Obama.
Now, here's the result among "registered voters":
Obama: 49%
McCain: 39%
Nader: 5%
Barr: 2%
OK, that's a 10-point lead for Obama.
So, how do we get from 13 or 10 points down to the 3-point Obama lead being reported by ABC and some of our other pals in the corporate media? It's not easy, but anything to make this more of a "horse race," apparently. Well, you can drop Nader and Barr, but that still results in big Obama leads - 12 points (51%-39%) among "all adults" or 8 points (50%-42%) among "registered voters." Given the expected huge turnout this November, at least by Democrats, something close to "registered voters" seems reasonable, which would put Obama's lead at 8 points. Right?
But wait a minute, this is the corporate media we're talking about, and they like playing games with our heads. Which is how we get to a 3-point Obama lead, by throwing out Barr and Nader and focusing on a "likely voter" model which most likely is flawed given the historic nature of this election. Voila, only a 3-point Obama lead! Pretty amazing, eh? And it's the BLOGS that are accused of distorting and spinning? Hahahahahaha.
P.S. By the way, Quinnipiac University came out with a poll yesterday that has Barack Obama leading John McCain by 9 points (50%-41%) among their "likely voter" model. That includes a 94%-1% (that's not a typo) lead for Obama among African Americans, a 55%-36% lead for Obama among women, and a 63%-31% lead for Obama among voters 34 years of age or younger.