I decided to look at how Jim Webb squeaked out a victory against incumbent Republican George Allen, hoping to find a plan for another Democratic victory.
Webb won just three congressional districts, while splitting another with Allen. That's the bad news. The good news is that the districts he won, all in northern Virginia, have a higher voter turnout that other areas of the state.
Webb carried the 3rd District with 68% of the vote. That's Bobby Scott's district, and Obama should be able to do even better there. Webb also carried the 8th (69%) and the 11th (54%).
In a presidential year - and with Mark Warner also on the ticket - Obama can match those percentages. He just might do better in the 11th with both Gerald Connolly and Warner helping.
The 10th District saw Webb get a 50% vote, an easily doable number for Obama.
Now comes the fun. In the 2nd (Webb 47%) - where Thelma Drake is underwhelming as a candidate for the Republicans - there is a strong challenger in Glenn Nye, a guy who just may be able to capture that seat. If the fact that Drake voted against Jim Webb's GI Bill, while John McCain opposed it but didn't even show up to vote on it, is played up in that military-heavy area, it is conceivable that Obama could get at least the same percentage.
My best hope for adding to Democratic votes may lie in the 5th. Incumbent Republican Virgil Goode has a tough race against Tom Perriello, another challenger with a chance (outside) of pulling an upset. Webb got 44% in the district, but Obama's campaign has the potential to energize minority voters in the city of Danville. If that happens, the 5th could be significant.
The 6th District (my district) was where Webb did his worst, drawing only 40% of the vote. If the Democrats can organize better - especially in the city of Roanoke (a big if) - Obama should do better than that. Another thing we have going for us is the fact that Mark Warner is on the ballot. A co-ordinated campaign is working the Democratic areas of the district to get out every vote it can. The election could well hinge on how well that can be done.
The 9th District is another place where the presence on the ballot of Mark Warner could help Obama. Webb only got 44% in the 9th. Obama should be able to match that.
My greatest concern is the so-called "Wilder effect," also sometimes called the "Bradley effect," both describing what happened to two other elections with strong African-American candidates.
I remember well how Lt. Gov. Doug Wilder was ahead in the polls in 1989 when he ran for governor of Virginia. The actual margin of victory was so small that a recount was needed to certify that he won. A similar thing happened in 1982 when Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley ran for governor of California. Bradley was defeated by a tiny minority of the vote, after leading in the polls and being projected as the winner in exit polls.
Well, that was then and this is now. Times have changed, and I have to believe that racism will be much less of a factor this time...but it will be there. We Democrats have to anticipate it and develop a strategy to overcome it. Nationally, the Obama campaign - probably quite rightly - believes that an increase in turnout among young people and among minority voters will negate the "Wilder effect."
Virginia and other areas of the South may be harder. However, I think that a "perfect storm" may be brewing in the Old Dominion this year for the Republicans. The hard-core right will be able to vote for Bob Barr on the Libertarian ticket. Northern Virginia will be the engine of victory just as it was for Jim Webb and Tim Kaine. Having the most popular Democrat in modern times running for the Senate - Mark Warner - may add to all Democratic totals. Jim Webb's stunning victory with the long-deserved GI Bill will resonate with military voters, many of whom are ready for a different commander-in-chief, not "McBush" McCain.
If we look briefly at the results in the Virginia presidential race in 2004, we can see that Jim Webb improved on John Kerry's performance in every congressional district. Kerry only carried two districts, the 3rd and the 8th. Webb did markedly better in the 10th and 11th Districts.
That and his better margins in the rural parts of the state made all the difference. That is also the key to an Obama victory in the fall.
Like all elections, this one will boil down to turnout. If young voters are energized...if African-American voters come out in record numbers...if trends toward the Democratic Party - particularly in northern Virginia - continue to develop...this thing is winnable.
I am most encouraged by two other things we have going for us this year. First, Barack Obama is committed to a 50-state strategy. Second, the Obama campaign knows how to organize. They are good! That's how they beat the Clinton campaign.
Just remember what Howard Dean told us. We have the power. Now, we just have to do the work.
Sadly, I don't expect Obama to get anywhere near 40% in the 9th barring an absolute state-wide blowout.
And Elaine, I'm hoping big hopes for y'all in the 6th, but that also strikes me as very uphill territory for Obama.
I think the key is to absolutely drive black turnout in the 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 2nd, and drive turnout overall in the 8th, 10th, and 11th. The wildcard districts are the 1st and the 7th -- both have much higher percentages of African-Americans than in either the 6th or 9th, but both have been absolute Democrat kill zones in recent elections. Having Mark Warner down the ticket might well help in those areas, and Barack did very well in those districts in the primary election.
But registering and driving up turnout amongst Virginia's African-American population seems to me to be the key, along with NoVA overall.
I have to have some hope about the 9th, but that's a real question mark.
I do think that the race in Virginia will be much closer than in 2004. I just love the fact that Obama wants to make it a race. It's so refreshing not to be discounted and ignored.
Obama understands that the first requirement to winning anything is to show up for the contest.
I understand Congressman Boucher works harder than just about any Congressman in Washington, but his ability to connect to the average voter in SWVA could do more to help Obama in our CD than any other. It is my strong hope and desire that Congressman Boucher will use his campaign as an opportunity to promote the Democratic majority and the opportunity for America to have a Democratic president.
For what it is worth,(and I know this is a stretch), Congressman Boucher would be a very good darkhorse pick for VP - hard working Congressman from an entirely rural area, absolutely no risk of Congressman Boucher overshadowing the presidential nominee, understands Washington, on and on.
I understand that is a political reality unlikely to occur, but much more relevant to Congressman Boucher may be a future bid for Governor. If he actively, through the media and on the ground help deliver 45% - 50% in SWVA, assuming every other district performs the same as in previous cycles, Virginia could be the determining factor in the presidential race and the Congressman would be able to point to his work in 2008 in some future gubernatorial bid.
Just a thought -
Obama / Boucher 2008
In 2004, Kerry Edwards got 125,164 to Bush Cheney 166,689. Also, as pointed out before, the AA population in the 4th is about 33%. The areas in the north of Chesapeake (or South Norfolk) are working class and mixed racially in population. Petersburg is majority AA. This is just a quick look, but hopefully the picture is clear. The 4th is a sleeper. Also, Sen. Louise Lucas lost a close Special Election to Randy Forbes. This CD was represented by a Democrat for a long time. It could happen.