At noon tomorrow at the Colonial Capitol in Williamsburg, 4,000 people will watch as Timothy M. Kaine (D) is sworn in as the new Governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia. Then, at 1 PM, the Inaugural Parade will run three-quarters of a mile along Duke of Gloucester Street. Finally, tomorrow evening, inaugural balls will be held in Williamsburg and Richmond. Tim Kaine will be our new Governor, and the four years of Mark Warner's reign as "His Excellency" (yes, that's what the Virginia Governor is officially called, believe it or not!) will end. My first reaction: is this amazing or what? I mean, seriously, who out there honestly believed, one year ago today, that Tim Kaine would be the next Governor of Virginia? Even yours truly, the founder of "Raising Kaine," felt that Jerry W. Kilgore was the odds-on, if not prohibitive, favorite to defeat Kaine. Mainly, that was because of three factors: 1) Virginia is considered a solid "red" state, generally tending towards Republican candidates; 2) George W. Bush was riding high and claiming a mandate after defeating John Kerry in November 2004; and 3) nobody knew who Tim Kaine was, but those who DID know felt he was too "liberal" and couldn't possibly win in Virginia.
Well, guess what? We were all wrong. After falling to a 10-point deficit in the polls last spring, Tim Kaine surged in the closing weeks of the campaign to defeat Kilgore by 6 points - even better than Gov. Mark R. Warner's victory in 2001! In other words, the #1 lesson from the past year is this: never EVER underestimate Timothy M. Kaine.
Actually, come to think of it, maybe it's a good thing for certain people to keep underestimating Tim Kaine. Those people are known, of course, as "Republicans." Yeah, PLEASE keep underestimating Tim Kaine, all you right-wingers and "conservatives" out there. Make sure you keep talking about how Kaine doesn' t have a real mandate for anything, how fixing transportation is an impossible task, and how Kaine will never live up to Mark Warner's high standard. Also, please keep talking about how Kaine isn't really a moderate/centrist, but is actually that dreaded "l" word. Then, every time Kaine wins another unexpected victory, just keep on doing the same thing.
Oh, and some more unsolicited advice if you guys want the voters to like you: keep pushing a Bob Marshall far-right-wing social agenda (gays, sex, and sodomy 24/7/365!!!) while ignoring the pressing challenges that most Virginians care about. Also, keep being hyper-partisan, and never EVER reach across the aisle in a bi-partisan fashion. Last but not least, make sure you excoriate the moderates in your party, such as Russ Potts and Jim Dillard, alienating them from the Party and driving them right into the arms of the Democrats.
Most of all, though, keep underestimating Tim Kaine. Then, four years from today, when Virginia is once again better off because of Democratic leadership, and when you have lost control of the General Assembly, you can sit there scratching your heads (or whatever), pondering how all this happened to you. Alternatively, you can decide to marginalize the far right wing of your party, the Bob Marshalls and Leo Wardrups and John Cosgroves and Scott Linghamfelters....nah, don't do that! Instead, put those people (whoops, forget to mention Jeff Frederick and Charles Carrico and Dave Albo) out front and center. Make Bob Marshall the face of the Republican Party, and keep opposing sensible centrists like Tim Kaine. That's my advice to Republicans if they want to win in Virginia and nationwide. Now, if they'll only take my friendly advice (ha ha).
P.S. On a serious note, a hearty congratulations to Tim Kaine, and a profound thank you to Mark Warner. You guys make me proud to be a Democrat.