Check out this MyDD article, which analyzes the potential for November 2006 to be a "tidal wave" election in which Democrats take over Congress. This contrasts with what political analyst Charlie Cook was saying the other day, that only 28 House seats are truly competitive (and none in Virginia). I disagreed with this analysis, and still do, although I'm not counting on the "tidal wave" either. There are 10 months to go, and who knows what will happen in that time? Still, I'm optimistic, and reading analyses like the one on MyDD makes me even more so. Two key points from the article:1) A 5 percent margin should be enough to give Democrats control of the House. Right now, polls have Democrats up 10 percent or so.
2) "Only once has a party won the aggregate vote and not controlled the House (1996, when Ds had a 0.3% vote margin but Rs controlled the House by 17 seats.)"
My guess is that this could be a year that scrambles the conventional wisdom. Which is just one more reason why Democrats need to challenge Republicans in as many districts as possible. Battle cry for 2006: leave no conservative unchallenged!