Bob McDonnell- 32%
Creigh Deeds- 27%
Undecided- 40%
Bob McDonnell- 33%
Brian Moran- 27%
Undecided- 39%
These numbers are a HUGE boost to Creigh Deeds. First, this quashes any (Republican driven) speculation that Brian Moran is somehow ahead in this race, its clear that this race wont even start to shape up until November. Second, just about half of Virginians are undecided in this race (as compared to 8% for the presidential race), so electability is obviously the discussion that will be going on. The crosstabs show that Creigh DOUBLES Brian's share of the vote among Republicans, providing hard evidence to back up the assumption that Creigh Deeds is the most electable Democrat in the race.
Some bonus numbers as well (poll is from June 14th-16th)
Barack Obama- 47%
Jon McCain- 45%
Undecided- 8%
Mark Warner- 59%
Jim Gilmore- 28%
Undecided- 13%
Kaine Approval: 46/30
Webb Approval: 44/33
The only thing this poll shows is that the people of Virginia don't really know who their Attorney General is.
And Deeds "doubling" Moran's Republican support? You mean Creigh's 6% to Brian's 3%
Seriously?
You can find a list of everyone I've accepted money from (all for doing websites for their campaigns). I have consistently rejected $$$ from state political campaigns for "netroots consulting" and will continue to do so.
Hope that answers your question in regards to my "affiliations" :)
Grey Havens alludes further down to people using RK as a source for information. Lately and especially with regards to primary campaigns, I only swing by for the lolz while I'm taking a break at work. It's just too hard to take it seriously or sincerely when some people are collecting paychecks--you end up having to take everything with a large grain of salt and a heaping helping of "haha."
Politics is not a game of ratios, it's a game of margins. 20 cookies is far more significant than an extra one which happens to double my cache.
I'm going to buy some snickerdoodles.
It's not the numbers, it's the significance of the numbers. What do they mean. In this case the number mean that nobody knows nothing about nobody and nobody cares yet.
It also shows that McDonnell hasn't proven to anyone that he's got what it takes to move up.
In other words - as a baseline this thing's a wash.
This could be good news for the Moran campaign. Consider that Deeds ran a statewide campaign in 2005 and came within a whisker of being elected attorney general, yet that name recognition hasn't translated into a lead over Moran.
And Ben brings up another good point:
This means Creigh has basically no advantage over Moran in a head to head matchup with McDonnell- despite having spent over $3,000,000 on his statewide campaign in 2005.
I'm failing to see the silver line for the Deeds campaign.
So, sure, Sen. Deeds ran statewide in 2005. Brian Moran has a brother who is a well-known Congressman in NoVa -- I wonder how many points that was worth?
With so little meaningful data, one can all in the missing pieces however one wants, it seems to me.
I say - the poll specifically said "Democrat Creigh Deeds/Brian Moran and Republican Bob McDonnell." Hate to say it but... that's got to give Brian/Creigh a boost now that might not still be around in 16 months.
At this point, and this could easily change after the fall election, Moran seems to be better organized. However, both face the same problem in a June primary that Democratic candidates seems to always face - getting voters to turn out in a June primary. CD's that Deeds will need to count on in a primary perform poorly in June primaries. And based on this past weekends convention, the activists seem to be in Moran's corner not only in the CD's in NOVA, but in Hampton Roads and the Richmond area as well.
Republicans must be scratching their heads after reading this poll. McDonnell, after spending the last three years as AG, should be performing much better - how embarrassing.
But will any of this really matter? Virginia has a long hisotry of electing the opposite party in a governor's race that won the presidency the year prior - so will Virginia buck the long trend with President Obama sitting in the White House? If so, I guess we can say convincingly that Virginia will have turned blue.
Creigh has 27%, Moran has 27%. Isn't that normally known as a "tie"?
James, you do some great work, but if you spin any harder, dude, you're going to get whiplash!