A 2009 Poll... FINALLY!

By: James Martin
Published On: 6/18/2008 12:48:16 PM

In the end though, it proves to be about as conclusive as the Iowa caucus was for the Democratic Primary. The huge loser from this poll is Bob McDonnell, who should have a substantial lead at this point because of his statewide lead in name ID as sitting Attorney General. The fact that he's leading by only 5-6 points against 2 Democrats who really have only marginal statewide name ID at this point is very telling (Creigh has some residual from his '05 race and Brian has alot coming from his brother among those who live in NoVA).

Bob McDonnell- 32%
Creigh Deeds- 27%
Undecided- 40%

Bob McDonnell- 33%
Brian Moran- 27%
Undecided- 39%

These numbers are a HUGE boost to Creigh Deeds. First, this quashes any (Republican driven) speculation that Brian Moran is somehow ahead in this race, its clear that this race wont even start to shape up until November. Second, just about half of Virginians are undecided in this race (as compared to 8% for the presidential race), so electability is obviously the discussion that will be going on. The crosstabs show that Creigh DOUBLES Brian's share of the vote among Republicans, providing hard evidence to back up the assumption that Creigh Deeds is the most electable Democrat in the race.

Some bonus numbers as well (poll is from June 14th-16th)

Barack Obama- 47%
Jon McCain- 45%
Undecided- 8%

Mark Warner- 59%
Jim Gilmore- 28%
Undecided- 13%

Kaine Approval: 46/30
Webb Approval: 44/33


Comments



Really? (Sean Holihan - 6/18/2008 1:21:57 PM)
James you've got to be kidding me here.  

The only thing this poll shows is that the people of Virginia don't really know who their Attorney General is.  

And Deeds "doubling" Moran's Republican support?  You mean Creigh's 6% to Brian's 3%

Seriously?  



Right on (brimur - 6/18/2008 3:21:10 PM)
Exactly Sean, not only that but James didn't mention that while Creigh's getting a massive 3% advantage on Moran among Republicans- Moran is absolutely devastating Deeds (by 3%) among the all-important independents. Let's face it, this is more proof that there is no electability difference between the candidates (at least not proved so far). That's bad news for Creigh.


Is this post more proof it's time for RK front page bloggers to list their affiliations? (JohnB - 6/18/2008 1:28:31 PM)
I'd say it's past time for RK to create a spot on the upper left side that provides links to full disclosure by front page blog authors and management  


I am not on the payroll for Senator Deeds is thats what you're asking (James Martin - 6/18/2008 1:44:06 PM)
http://vpap.org/vendors/profil...

You can find a list of everyone I've accepted money from (all for doing websites for their campaigns). I have consistently rejected $$$ from state political campaigns for "netroots consulting" and will continue to do so.

Hope that answers your question in regards to my "affiliations" :)



Then you must agree that a list should exist for RK (Shawn - 6/18/2008 1:55:41 PM)
I wasn't asking. You, James, have been rumored to be on Deeds staff. Readers should not have to look to another source to see who is getting what or when from whom.  


Ideally (Silence Dogood - 6/18/2008 4:30:33 PM)
It would be nice if none of them were taking money from primary candidates so we wouldn't have to look at any lists at all.

Grey Havens alludes further down to people using RK as a source for information.  Lately and especially with regards to primary campaigns, I only swing by for the lolz while I'm taking a break at work.  It's just too hard to take it seriously or sincerely when some people are collecting paychecks--you end up having to take everything with a large grain of salt and a heaping helping of "haha."



Just for the record (aznew - 6/18/2008 5:11:51 PM)
"I'm currently unemployed," aznew said proudly.


Thanks for letting us know (JohnB - 6/18/2008 1:59:08 PM)
I personally think Deeds and Moran are a dead heat  


Is there a link to the poll? n/t (aznew - 6/18/2008 1:33:45 PM)


Link to poll. (Sean Holihan - 6/18/2008 1:37:37 PM)
http://www.publicpolicypolling...


Many thanks n/t (aznew - 6/18/2008 1:56:48 PM)


*facepalm* (Kenton - 6/18/2008 2:00:03 PM)
Moran draws 3% of Republicans, Deeds 6%. So yes, it has "doubled", in the sense that I have one cookie, you have two cookies, so you have double mine. But if I had forty cookies and you had sixty, wouldn't that be more significant?

Politics is not a game of ratios, it's a game of margins. 20 cookies is far more significant than an extra one which happens to double my cache.

I'm going to buy some snickerdoodles.



James, you're much better than this (The Grey Havens - 6/18/2008 2:36:01 PM)
I appreciate your enthusiasm for Creigh Deeds, but people count on us for info, dude!

It's not the numbers, it's the significance of the numbers.  What do they mean.  In this case the number mean that nobody knows nothing about nobody and nobody cares yet.

It also shows that McDonnell hasn't proven to anyone that he's got what it takes to move up.

In other words - as a baseline this thing's a wash.



Not so fast James (Marc Abanto - 6/18/2008 2:48:49 PM)
I'm proud to be doing a little work for Brian Moran, but I thought the RK community should know that others had a radically different take on the poll:

This could be good news for the Moran campaign. Consider that Deeds ran a statewide campaign in 2005 and came within a whisker of being elected attorney general, yet that name recognition hasn't translated into a lead over Moran.

And Ben brings up another good point:

This means Creigh has basically no advantage over Moran in a head to head matchup with McDonnell- despite having spent over $3,000,000 on his statewide campaign in 2005.

I'm failing to see the silver line for the Deeds campaign.  



Well (aznew - 6/18/2008 3:03:40 PM)
I'm no expert at reading polls, but this one says little about the Deeds/Moran race, IMHO. I suppose each camp can get out of this poll exactly the expectations that they brought into it.

So, sure, Sen. Deeds ran statewide in 2005. Brian Moran has a brother who is a well-known Congressman in NoVa -- I wonder how many points that was worth?

With so little meaningful data, one can all in the missing pieces however one wants, it seems to me.  



Yeah (Ron1 - 6/18/2008 3:15:46 PM)
And, frankly, it's a bit ridiculous to be polling on a general election fight that is 17 months away.


Spoke with Bob Brink (legacyofmarshall - 6/18/2008 4:58:34 PM)
About this poll earlier.  He's a Brian Moran fan, I'm nuetral, he insisted it was good news for both Deeds and Moran, saying neither of them is statewide and for the AG to have a mere 5 point lead is astounding.

I say - the poll specifically said "Democrat Creigh Deeds/Brian Moran and Republican Bob McDonnell."  Hate to say it but... that's got to give Brian/Creigh a boost now that might not still be around in 16 months.



Moran v. Deeds (Flipper - 6/18/2008 9:15:56 PM)
I think this poll has absolutely no meaning whatsoever at this point - although I am surprised Deeds is not doing better against McDonnell than Moran is.  Deeds spent three million dollars in his AG race and one would think he would have done better against McDonnell at this point in a head to head match-up.  So the results of this poll, I think, must be good news for Moran.  

At this point, and this could easily change after the fall election, Moran seems to be better organized.  However, both face the same problem in a June primary that Democratic candidates seems to always face - getting voters to turn out in a June primary.  CD's that Deeds will need to count on in a primary perform poorly in June primaries.  And based on this past weekends convention, the activists seem to be in Moran's corner not only in the CD's in NOVA, but in Hampton Roads and the Richmond area as well.

Republicans must be scratching their heads after reading this poll.  McDonnell, after spending the last three years as AG, should be performing much better - how embarrassing.  

But will any of this really matter?  Virginia has a long hisotry of electing the opposite party in a governor's race that won the presidency the year prior - so will Virginia buck the long trend with President Obama sitting in the White House?  If so, I guess we can say convincingly that Virginia will have turned blue.      



Spinnitis (Kindler - 6/19/2008 6:33:36 PM)
Folks, let's get real:

Creigh has 27%, Moran has 27%.  Isn't that normally known as a "tie"?

James, you do some great work, but if you spin any harder, dude, you're going to get whiplash!