Connolly and Nye Added to "Red-to-Blue" Program

By: James Martin
Published On: 6/18/2008 12:47:47 AM

The DCCC just added 20 candidates to their "Red to Blue" fundraising program. I'm not surprised to see Gerry Connolly get a spot on the list considering the enormous potential of the 11th district to provide a Democratic pickup, but the addition of Glenn Nye is certainly a pleasant surprise. This is a huge creditability bump for Glenn Nye, who lacks the name ID that Phil Kellam had running in 2006. The DCCC must have a poll or financial commitment that would suggest Nye running competitively against incumbent Thelma Drake in this R+6 district.

My Personal Feelings on VA Congressional Races:
Likely Democratic Pickup: Mark Warner (VA- SEN), Gerry Connolly (VA-11)
Leans Republican Retention (but highly competitive): Glenn Nye (VA-2), Judy Feder (VA-10)
Race to Watch: Tom Perriello (VA-5)

Current Virginia Congressional Delegation: 9 Republicans and 4 Democrats
Likely Delegation after '08: 7 Republicans and 6 Democrats
Possible (but unlikely) Delegation after '08: 8 Democrats and 5 Republicans


Comments



When I graduated College in 1993 (Scott Surovell - 6/18/2008 1:04:33 AM)
It was 7 Dems & 4 Repubs in Congress (8-5 if you count the Senate):
1st - Bateman
6th - Goodlatte (Olin recently retired)
7th - Bliley
10th - Wolf

2nd - Pickett
3rd - Scott
4th - Sisisky
5th - Payne
8th - Moran
9th - Boucher
11th - Byrne

If we could draw the lines we could pick up 3-4 easy.  In 1992, we had just lost the 6th with Olin's retirement....

Only if.......



When I graduated High School in 2006 :P (James Martin - 6/18/2008 1:25:29 AM)
It was 10 Republicans and 3 Democrats... There will probobly be 7 Republicans and 6 Democrats when I graduate College... a very nice improvement :)


Huge opportunity in the 2nd District (Silence Dogood - 6/18/2008 1:34:38 AM)
It really can't be iterated enough that the 2nd District of Virginia is the ONLY district in Virginia where the 2006 Dem Congressional challenger ran ahead of our Senatorial candidate, Jim Webb, and nearly pulled off an upset in a very tight race.  Our other challengers--including Feder--ran well behind.

We have a lot of great candidates this cycle--we did last cycle, too--but election day isn't decided by the candidates, but by the voters.  The voters in this district have demonstrated that they're dissatisfied with their current Member of the US House to a greater degree than any other Congressional District in Virginia.  We need to recognize this seat as uniquely competitive and do everything we can to make sure Glenn Nye has the resources he needs to run a top-tier campaign.



Absolutely correct (Susan Mariner - 6/18/2008 9:55:39 AM)
Thelma Drake was vulnerable in 2006, but she's much more so today, as she has voted consistently in support of Bush and against the interests of the 2nd district.

In a district with a very large veteran and active duty population, her vote against Webb's GI bill was stunning.  Everybody here understands the huge sacrifice that our troops have been asked to make since the invasion of Iraq.  Many are like me and have family members who have served multiple tours in Iraq and/or Afghanistan.  

Glenn Nye is a very strong, hard working candidate with a compelling resume.  He's also running in a district that's 20% African American.  Those voters have traditionally not shown up in large numbers, but they will this year.

Democrats will be unified and passionate in their support of Glenn Nye against Thelma Drake, and Glenn will run strong with Independents.  Providing he has the resources to get the word out on who he is, he'll also pick up Republican votes.  

This race is really a toss up at this point, and the DCCC knows it.  That's a very good thing.  



I Agree (Elaine in Roanoke - 6/18/2008 9:07:32 AM)
Yes...Glenn Nye and Gerry Connolly, are the best chances for Democratic Pick-ups.

Judy Feder's chances, to me at least, depend on just how badly McSame does in the District and how closely Wolf can be tied to McCain/Bush.

I really like Perriello's chances in the 5th to give Virgil Goode fits.  



Go Tom Go!! (Susan Mariner - 6/18/2008 10:00:34 AM)
Tom Perriello is a great candidate for the 5th district.  I'm very excited about what he's doing out there.  No doubt Virgil Goode is going to be wake up grumpy quite a lot over the next 4+ months.  Go Tom Go!!  You're making us proud.


Connolly Makes Me Sick (Lee Diamond - 6/19/2008 12:54:27 PM)
Front paged and highlighting today is an extensive post about the deeds of George Burke.  Well, George Burke and Connolly are best buds.  So lets stop acting like this is the Soviet Union.  Lets drop the George Orwell's worst nightmare routine.

Burke is a henchman for Connolly.  Burke torched Charles Hall in the Supervisor's race last year for Connolly.  One of the things they did was suggest that Mr. Hall is connected to Tom Davis.  In fact, Connolly has been doing a tap dance with Davis for a long time.  Burke spent Party money in the primary to promote the incumbent.  Why would FCDC or the 11th Distict Committee get involved in a primary?  I lived in Providence District for 15 years.  Connolly and Linda Smyth have not served Providence District.  They have served the real estate developers and other rich *&%$#* who bankroll their careers.  Connolly is a Political Boss.

I respectfully submit that it is quite difficult to criticize George Burke and ignore The Boss of Fairfax.



OK, but (Red Sox - 6/19/2008 1:00:49 PM)
by tarring Connolly with Burke, you've just validated Burke's tactic of smearing Raising Kaine with Ben Tribbett.

You can't have it both ways.



RK & Ben Tribbett (Lee Diamond - 6/19/2008 3:02:35 PM)
Ben Tribbett has his own blog.

He has no role, NO role in the management of RK.

Connolly and Burke OTOH are a tag team.

How can you draw such an analogy?