My Personal Feelings on VA Congressional Races:
Likely Democratic Pickup: Mark Warner (VA- SEN), Gerry Connolly (VA-11)
Leans Republican Retention (but highly competitive): Glenn Nye (VA-2), Judy Feder (VA-10)
Race to Watch: Tom Perriello (VA-5)
Current Virginia Congressional Delegation: 9 Republicans and 4 Democrats
Likely Delegation after '08: 7 Republicans and 6 Democrats
Possible (but unlikely) Delegation after '08: 8 Democrats and 5 Republicans
2nd - Pickett
3rd - Scott
4th - Sisisky
5th - Payne
8th - Moran
9th - Boucher
11th - Byrne
If we could draw the lines we could pick up 3-4 easy. In 1992, we had just lost the 6th with Olin's retirement....
Only if.......
We have a lot of great candidates this cycle--we did last cycle, too--but election day isn't decided by the candidates, but by the voters. The voters in this district have demonstrated that they're dissatisfied with their current Member of the US House to a greater degree than any other Congressional District in Virginia. We need to recognize this seat as uniquely competitive and do everything we can to make sure Glenn Nye has the resources he needs to run a top-tier campaign.
In a district with a very large veteran and active duty population, her vote against Webb's GI bill was stunning. Everybody here understands the huge sacrifice that our troops have been asked to make since the invasion of Iraq. Many are like me and have family members who have served multiple tours in Iraq and/or Afghanistan.
Glenn Nye is a very strong, hard working candidate with a compelling resume. He's also running in a district that's 20% African American. Those voters have traditionally not shown up in large numbers, but they will this year.
Democrats will be unified and passionate in their support of Glenn Nye against Thelma Drake, and Glenn will run strong with Independents. Providing he has the resources to get the word out on who he is, he'll also pick up Republican votes.
This race is really a toss up at this point, and the DCCC knows it. That's a very good thing.
Judy Feder's chances, to me at least, depend on just how badly McSame does in the District and how closely Wolf can be tied to McCain/Bush.
I really like Perriello's chances in the 5th to give Virgil Goode fits.
Burke is a henchman for Connolly. Burke torched Charles Hall in the Supervisor's race last year for Connolly. One of the things they did was suggest that Mr. Hall is connected to Tom Davis. In fact, Connolly has been doing a tap dance with Davis for a long time. Burke spent Party money in the primary to promote the incumbent. Why would FCDC or the 11th Distict Committee get involved in a primary? I lived in Providence District for 15 years. Connolly and Linda Smyth have not served Providence District. They have served the real estate developers and other rich *&%$#* who bankroll their careers. Connolly is a Political Boss.
I respectfully submit that it is quite difficult to criticize George Burke and ignore The Boss of Fairfax.
You can't have it both ways.
He has no role, NO role in the management of RK.
Connolly and Burke OTOH are a tag team.
How can you draw such an analogy?