2009 Tea Leaves

By: The Grey Havens
Published On: 6/17/2008 1:30:30 PM

Cordel Faulk at the RTD, today, shares some early rumblings about 2009.

(1) Del. Brian Moran (D-Alex.) seems to be outpacing Sen. Creigh Deeds (D-Bath) for the 2009 Democratic nomination for governor. (Many, many Democrats were nonchalant about confirming that impression-off the record.)

(2) Deeds should run for attorney general again, just as he did in 2005 when he barely lost to Virginia's current attorney general. Deeds probably could beat anyone currently running or being mentioned for AG in 2009.

(3) The door to the Dem AG nomination may close for Deeds if he's not careful. This is just my gut reaction to watching Del. Steve Shannon around the convention campaigning for the 2009 Democratic nod for attorney general-but he has the whiff of a winner who may be able to outmaneuver Deeds if the Bath County senator comes to his senses too late.

I'm not sure what "(Many, many Democrats were nonchalant about confirming that impression-off the record.)" means, but it's whispers like this that soon grow into buzz.  I'd like to re-state that RK has no preferred candidate, but we all would like to see Democrats find a way to move into the critical 2009 election year united.  The victors will likely control redistricting, which could allow Republicans to deeply gerrymander the commonwealth and stave off for another decade the coming generational shift to an enduring Democratic majority.

As a bit of a qualifier to Mr. Faulk's powers of insight, he continues:

Republicans at the 2008 Virginia GOP convention seemed more enthusiastic about 2009's candidates (McDonnell-Bolling) than those running in this year's election (McCain and Gilmore).

The fact that 2008 has the RPV in a near death spiral seems to be lost on Mr. Faulk, so you have to take everything he says here with more than a grain of salt.

UPDATE:  Photo care of Central Virginia uber-activist Mark Brooks.


Comments



Interesting that the Republican Times Dispatch... (James Martin - 6/17/2008 1:34:48 PM)
That hasn't endorsed a Democrat since the 1950's would be trying to push Creigh out of the Governor's race...

The Dispatch's motives couldn't be clearer- without the stronger Democrat in the race- the Republicans would have an easier time taking back the Governor's mansion in '09.



Yeah (Ron1 - 6/17/2008 1:44:42 PM)
And, more importantly to me, this is the type of terrible horserace coverage that turns our politics into high-school-student-government-type elections.

I'm hoping RK can help provoke and promote a credible, issues-based discussion between Messrs. Deeds and Moran to see which of these two accomplished gentlemen has the vision for Virginia that will carry us to victory in '09.



COMMENT HIDDEN (goVAdems - 6/17/2008 1:46:41 PM)


COMMENT HIDDEN (James Martin - 6/17/2008 1:47:36 PM)


COMMENT HIDDEN (goVAdems - 6/17/2008 1:43:06 PM)


COMMENT HIDDEN (James Martin - 6/17/2008 1:46:03 PM)


RTD Endorsment of George Allen (same people who wrote the above wrote this) (James Martin - 6/17/2008 1:46:57 PM)
    The Times-Dispatch endorsed Allen for governor and senator, and has had no regrets.

   As governor, Allen ranked as one of Virginia's most estimable - and revolutionary - of the 20th century. He persuaded a Democratic legislature to abolish parole, dramatically reform both welfare and the juvenile justice system, approve parental notification, and - to raise academic performance - establish a Standards of Learning program emulated nationwide.
   ...
   [I]n standing with a president whose election The Times-Dispatch has twice endorsed as well, Allen's support of the president in combating the 21st century's most serious threat to America and to liberty throughout the world - speaks persuasively for his Senate re-election.



COMMENT HIDDEN (quietDem - 6/17/2008 1:57:21 PM)


COMMENT HIDDEN (James Martin - 6/17/2008 1:59:41 PM)


With all due respect, you are quite wrong, quietDem (aznew - 6/17/2008 2:44:05 PM)
You write:

You've got to blow the doors off NoVA to win in this state. and Creigh couldn't do that in 05.

Look at the election returns.

8CD - Kaine got 70% of the vote, Deeds got 69%
10CD - Kaine got 50%, Deeds got 49%
11CD - Kaine got 56%, Deeds got 53%

Total vote cast for Kaine in NOVA was 321K. Total vote for Deeds was 306K.

Obviously, Kaine at the top of the ticket did better, but are you saying that Kaine blew the doors off in NOVA and Deeds did not on the basis of 15K votes out of a total of almost 2 million cast statewide.

The idea that Sen. Deeds did not carry NOVA on par with other Democratic candidates in 2005 is simply false.

Second, you could even take the 10CD out of that mix. Much more important to Democratic statewide chances would be the 3CD, where Kaine took 70% in 2005, and Deeds 67%.

Perhaps you could explain how Moran being from NOVA helps in the 3CD?

In fact, if you look at the results from 2005, what really jumps out is that the difference between Kaine's victory, Deeds close loss, and Byrnes clear loss, was the way each of them performed in the areas of the state that are Republican, the precise parts of the state where Sen. Deeds is likely to perform better than Brian Moran, if it is geographic identity politics you wish to look at.  



Nice takedown (Ron1 - 6/17/2008 3:13:06 PM)
More importantly in this thread, we're going to have to be cognizant of these George-Burke-style astroturfers going forward. Nature of the beast, I suppose.  


Thanks (aznew - 6/17/2008 5:01:10 PM)
I have to admit that the astroturfing bothers me a bit. One of the things I like about this community is the ability to discuss differences respectfully. I learn a lot here.

But since the astroturfers do not care about the quality of their comments, merely the number of them, their goal is obviously not informed discussion, and their presence is corrosive.

I gave, and am giving, quietDem the benefit of the doubt by responding to his/her post seriously. I'm curious what his/her response, if anything, will be.



Hate to say it, but the RTD may be right. (JCC_Dem - 6/17/2008 2:03:00 PM)
It's not often that I agree with the RTD -- although I agree with goVAdems that the RTD's ed board has shifted more moderate lately.  It seems that the buzz about Brian has been significantly greater than the buzz around Creigh.  I think Creigh still has more name recognition among regular voters.  But whenever I go to an event with dem regulars, and when the topic of the '09 gov race comes up, people seem to be more excited about Brian.  He's put a great team in place, and they've done a great job of working the money and the media.  

I spent time in 2005 helping Tim Kaine and Creigh.  I probably spent more time helping Creigh and enjoyed the times I met him.  He was a great AG candidate, and would have made a great AG.  But I don't know if that qualifies him to be our gubernatorial candidate.  He was wishywashy about gay marriage.  At the time I didn't let it bother me because Taliban Bob was a terrible alternative.  But I'm not sure if that's who I want at the head of our ticket.  

I also don't know how he's going to connect with Hampton Roads voters when he starts talking about his Donkey.  It's a great little story, and I'm sure it plays well southside and the western parts of our state.  But as Kaine and Webb showed us, VA dems win in NOVA and HR, not in Bath and Highland County.  

Brian's been great to our candidates down here.  There's a reason he won the straw poll.  The more we get to know Brian, the more we realize he's the right candidate for '09.  



Brian- Get your staff off the blogs! (James Martin - 6/17/2008 2:04:48 PM)
Yet another user that has only commented to attack Creigh and prop up Brian, JCC_Dem's comments:

1)   Hate to say it, but the RTD may be right.  [0.00 / 0] Replies:  0
posted by: JCC_Dem on Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 2:03:00 PM EDT
attached to: 2009 Tea Leaves
2) Great Speech [0.00 / 0] Replies: 1
posted by: JCC_Dem on Mon Jun 16, 2008 at 12:40:50 PM EDT
attached to: Thank You, Mr. Moran
3) What's your position now, Creigh? [0.00 / 0] Replies: 1
posted by: JCC_Dem on Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 6:01:33 PM EDT
attached to: Sen. Deeds: "Green Globes" not a "credible alternative to LEED"
4) Great Catch [0.00 / 0] Replies: 0
posted by: JCC_Dem on Fri Jan 04, 2008 at 9:12:42 AM EST
attached to: Brian Moran Goes for the Mark Warner Connection
5) Deeds -- friend of the gay community? [0.00 / 0] Replies: 1
posted by: JCC_Dem on Sun Dec 23, 2007 at 7:27:09 PM EST
attached to: Looking ahead to 2009 - (with a silly poll)



Ditto here... (SWVA.Observer - 6/18/2008 9:01:14 AM)
I know JCC_Dem in real life... and his democratic committee runs like a well-oiled machine, thanks in large part to his efforts.


this is stupid (quietDem - 6/17/2008 2:14:43 PM)
not everyone is on the moran staff, JM. And accusing people of being so is pretty childish. I actually know JCC_Dem in real life and can guarantee you that he doesn't work for Moran. lets get real and discuss the actual point of the post.  


I dont think everyone is on Moran's staff... (James Martin - 6/17/2008 2:16:57 PM)
I think someone on Brian's staff creating 5 fake user accounts (including yours) that are being used to shill for Brian is downright outrageous.

My real name is James Elliott Martin- whats yours?



Here we go again (legacyofmarshall - 6/17/2008 2:33:49 PM)
James - I know your support of Senator Deeds goes WAY beyond your employment with him, but isn't it still a bit hypocritical to say that a Moran supporter's posts on RK are invalidated simply because he/she works for Moran?  When you make comments against Moran/for Deeds and work for the guy?

James, it is commendable that Senator Deeds is able to attract politically savvy and (as far as this blog goes) important people such as you, and it's good he has you as his blog attack dog, if Moran doesn't have a big name, what's wrong with that?

As for you quietDem/goVAdems - I also am aware of JCC_Dem's status here and (I believe) at NLS, but James' question was directed towards you.  Why don't you just come out and say that you do or do not work for Mr. Moran?  James works for Creigh Deeds and everyone knows that.  When a Democratic primary is at stake, employment should and must be disclosed on any civilized forum.  and YES, RK is a civilized forum.  So whether you're a paid staffer or just an avid volunteer - do you work for Delegate Brian Moran?



i don't work for brian (JCC_Dem - 6/17/2008 3:20:59 PM)
James,
While I wish I had the time to get into a pissing match with you, I have other things to do.  BUT, I just want to clear up one thing.  
Just because I wrote 5 comments in support of Brian Moran doesn't mean that I work for him.  I'm a supporter.  I met him a few times.  I think he's the right guy for our party in '09.  I don't need a pay check from a campaign to influence my views and my posts.  
You're right though, I only post when there's a debate about RCD and Moran.  Why?  

I read RK regularly.  I agree with many of the posts here.  I didn't comment on the Obama-Hillary stuff b/c there were enough other people making my point.  I don't comment on the environmental stuff because I'm not as knowledgeable about the subject as others.  
I do post about the gov race because I think this race is important and has a fundamental impact on the direction of our state.  
I think I've also posted on NLS a few times about other topics.  I think on local HR or RIC races.  I don't remember.  

Also, some of us have either jobs or organizational connections that make it prohibitive to make public our identities.  



I just love (Mark - 6/17/2008 3:26:48 PM)
that photo, and I have never been sad that I put a (C) on it in 2006, since it was used so many times with no attribution.

Some things never change!

Mark Brooks



you'd think (Sui Juris - 6/17/2008 3:33:47 PM)
people would be decent enough to ask, no?


Sorry about that Mark (The Grey Havens - 6/17/2008 3:42:49 PM)
of course you deserve attribution at the very least.

Thanks



Ah the memories Mark's photo brought out (Shawn - 6/17/2008 5:26:10 PM)
SV400242

Andy Hurst and I were almost pushed off the temporary stage minutes before Mark's picture was taken ... as Brian and Creigh moved in to get pictured with Webb ...

webbmorandeeds

...and that was Al Weed (VA-05) raising hands with Moran and Deeds ... stuck in the middle ... and yes that is Harris Miller extending a salute to now Senator Webb ... good times!  



Deeds for AG! (thorn - 6/17/2008 4:02:30 PM)
Creigh Deeds has been running around Virginia saying he's the more electable candidate. But now, we have the editor of the editorial pages, the type of moderate Republican that Virginia Democrats have to win, calling for Deeds to run for Attorney General.

The only thing that Creigh does by running for Governor is help put Bob McDonnell in the Governors mansion.



Yes, by all means (aznew - 6/17/2008 5:04:34 PM)
We should let Republicans tell us who we should run for office. That makes sense.


Am I allowed to like both Brian Moran and Creigh Deeds? (snolan - 6/17/2008 4:12:23 PM)
This thread is getting a bit silly.

We have a lot of races to win in 2008, why should I waste my time debating the merits of two excellent candidates for a 2009 race?

I happen to like both candidates.  So Pbfbfbfbfbfbtbtbtbt!



I love both these guys (The Grey Havens - 6/17/2008 5:10:06 PM)
Being a Democrat these days means a surfeit of riches.


I wonder (corinthian - 6/17/2008 4:18:50 PM)
Is there talk of anybody running for Lieutenant Governor? Granted it's not a big job, but it's a good springboard in four years


Besides Jon Bowerbank, who is already in, (Randy Klear - 6/17/2008 4:53:56 PM)
it's a pretty good bet that Secretary of Finance Jody Wagner will run. Secretary of Technology Aneesh Chopra also set off a buzz by hosting a hospitality suite in Hampton, but I don't think his plans are all that definite right now.


I wonder (corinthian - 6/17/2008 4:18:50 PM)
Is there talk of anybody running for Lieutenant Governor? Granted it's not a big job, but it's a good springboard in four years


Jon Bowerbank (legacyofmarshall - 6/17/2008 4:31:34 PM)
In fact, he may be doing a better job running for lt. gov. than either Moran or Deeds is doing running for Governor.  Granted, a bit easier when you don't have an announced challenger, but he's going around befriending folks like Leslie Byrne, Judy Feder, members of the Senate and House of Delegates, and our very own Lowell Feld.

I had the privilege to meet him last week when he was campaigning in NoVA for his friends.  My fears about him - that he was an out-of-touch, anti-institution troublemaker who thought himself better than the Democratic party (I just got that idea because he came from the blue (SWVA) and simultaneously endorsed Leslie Byrne and announced his candidacy) instantly vanished.

He is a smart, friendly, and humble guy.  He listens to politicians and activists alike and understands that the role of the candidate for Lt. Governor is to support other Democrats.

I look forward to hearing more from the Bowerbank for Lt. Governor campaign.



Jon Bowerbank (Mark - 6/17/2008 4:42:43 PM)

At the convention Saturday.



Deeds should not just give the candidacy to moran (notwaltertejada - 6/17/2008 5:20:21 PM)
The idea that "the door may close" for deeds in june of 2008 is ludicrous. Who's to say that Deeds should run for a.g. when it could just as easily be the other way around.
I think Deeds would be a stronger statewide candidate  for governor but it's way too soon to tell.  


Has only gotten stronger statewide (DanKalbacher - 6/17/2008 7:58:58 PM)
Deeds has only gotten stronger since the last time he ran for Attorney General.  He's been supporting candidates throughout the state who hopefully will return the favor this up coming primary cycle.  The Republicans are going to have a very strong ticket in all three races and I agree with "notwaltertejada" that Deeds will be a stronger "statewide" candidate than Moran who according to other blogs is having trouble making any good headway in the rural areas.  Deeds ran a good race and knows what to do different against McDonnell this time around. I also think the Republicans will have a more difficult time going after Deeds on certain issues as compared to when they go after Moran who they are going to pain as an ultra left Northern Virginia liberal.  Just a thought, let me know if I'm way off in my thinking.

And I do agree with Scott, there are a lot of important races in the coming months especially in the 10th and 11th CD which I'll be pounding a lot of signs for both Connelly and Feder as well as Mark Warner of course, sort of goes without saying  :)



RTD comments (bamboo - 6/17/2008 8:14:04 PM)
For what it's worth, I know Cordel Faulk slightly and suspect that he's not taking a partisan view much less the RTD's considered position, but merely free-lancing with his observations because he enjoys being in the scene. Whether he's an astute observer is another question.


Another scoop (Kindler - 6/17/2008 9:21:20 PM)
Many, many Republicans have admitted to me, nonchalantly, that they are flesh-eating zombies -- off-the-record.  

But unfortunately, Mr. Faulk gets paid to say stuff like this and I don't.  8-(



Admit it (Pru - 6/17/2008 10:58:21 PM)
Kindler, it is patently obvious that you are an Obama staffer and are just posting things like that to further your candidate's position.  You aren't fooling anyone.