Below is an overview of some key seats of contention in 2008. The Democrats have 26 seats that may be vulnerable (including the three seats they picked up in 2008), with 15 seats that are clearly vulnerable, while the Republicans appear to have 42 seats that may be vulnerable, with 29 that are clearly vulnerable. Among the 29 that are clearly vulnerable is Virginia's 11th District, which now leans Democratic. Virginia's 2nd District and Virginia's 10th District are slightly vulnerable for the Republicans at this point. Virginia's 5th District is a race to watch. There are no vulnerable Virginia Democratic Congressman.
Below the flip is a list of key races in 2008.
Highly Vulnerable Republicans (12)
Illinois 11 (Open Seat) - Weller managed a 10 point victory in 2006, but his retirement opens up this key swing district in north-central Illinois big time for the Democrats. Debbie Halvorson, the Majority Leader of the Illinois State Senate will be the Democrat favored to win. Her Republican challenger has far less name recognition and will have little chance to stop this seat from changing Party hands. This race is likely to be a Democratic victory.
Michigan 07 (Walberg) - As a freshman Republican already having trouble with the press in this southern Michigan district, Walberg is now far more vulnerable than when he ran the first time. His likely opponent is State Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer, a much stronger and well-financed Democratic challenger than he had in 2008.
Nevada 03 (Porter) - Every two years this Southern Nevada district seems to have more Democrats move into town. Porter barely won last time, and has to convince a new round of voters that he is their best representative. Now he faces 2006 Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Dana Titus who won this district in her Gubernatorial effort in 2006. This race is a toss-up.
New Jersey 03 (Open Seat) - While this was not the closest race in 2006, NJ-03 remains a swing district in south-central New Jersey. The retirement of Jim Saxton provides a great opportunity for a Democrat pick-up by this year's Democratic candidate, State Senator John Adler. He will face Medford Township Councilman Chris Myers. This race is a toss-up.
New Jersey 07 (Open Seat) - Republican Rep. Mike Ferguson barely won re-election in 2006, and with his retirement, this seat is wide open for the Democrats to take it over. The Democrat is 2006 challenger, State Assemblywoman Linda Stender. The Republican is Leonard Lance, the Fmr. State Senate Minority Leader. This is another toss-up.
New Mexico 01 (Open Seat) - The Democrats have a good chance to take this seat, with Albuquerque Councilor Martin Heinrich facing Republican Bernalillo County Sheriff & Ex-State Secretary of Public Safety, Darren White. This race is a toss-up.
New York 13 (Open Seat) - With a DUI and other issues plaguing him, the only Republican serving a New York City district has retired. Vito Fossella was likely a strong candidate for re-election if he didn't slip, but that is no longer the case. The Democrats mounted a decent challenge in 2006, and are well positioned to take this seat, which has a strong margin of Democratic registration, despite going big for Bush in 2004. A primary will decide the Democratic and Republican challengers in September.
New York 25 (Open Seat) - This was a tight race in 2006 in this Democratic-leaning district. With Republican Jim Walsh retiring it is likely that 2006 challenger Dan Maffei will be a favorite in this district covering Syracuse. The Republican he'll have to beat is now decided with the GOP running Dale Sweetland, a farmer and former county legislature chair
New York 26 (Open Seat) - Tom Reynolds retirement offers a strong pick-up opportunity for the Democrats in Western New York State. Republican State Senator George Maziarz appeared to be a strong candidate to keep this seat in GOP hands, but he decided not to run. The Democrats will have a primary in September to decide whether popular challenger Iraq war veteran, Jon Powers will be take on the Republicans for this seat. Powers first has to win the primary.
Ohio 15 (Open Seat) - Deborah Pryce eked out a 1,000 vote victory in 2006 in this district covering parts of Columbus and its western suburbs. Her retirement leaves the GOP in hot water to defend this seat with Republican State Senator Steve Stivers facing Pryce's 2006 challenger, Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy.
Ohio 16 (Open Seat) - Due to the retirement of Ralph Regula, this northern Ohio seat will be an open race for the first time in over three decades. State Senator and Air Force Reserve Major John Boccieri will be the Democrat facing Republican State Senator Kirk Schuring.
Virginia 11 (Open Seat) - Tom Davis' retirement opens the door for the Democratic takeover many have been waiting for in Fairfax and throughout the DC suburbs that make up Virginia's 11th district. Tim Kaine won big here in 2005 in the Governor's race, and Jim Webb won big here in the Senate race in 2006. The Democrats have a high profile candidate in moderate Democrat Gerry Connolly, who will face Republican businessman, Keith Fimian. Gerry Connolly has strong name recognition in the district that makes him formidable against any Republican. Fimian's strength is his ability to raise money and remain well-financed. However, this race is not a toss-up. It leans Democratic.
Vulnerable Republicans (17)
Alabama 02 (Open Seat) - Although a red district, the retirement of Terry Everett and emergence of Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright as the Democratic candidate creates a real buzz in this southeastern Alabama district. His challenger will be decided in July.
Alaska at large (Young) - Don Young has represented Alaska for a long time, and as such he appears to have been corrupted by it. He faces a strong primary challenge in August. That leaves an opening for Ethan Berkowitz, former leader of the Democrats in the Alaska legislature and from personal experience he is an all-around nice guy. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich was rumored to be challenging for the house seat, but instead he is running for Senate, where he should finally give Ted Stevens a good run.
Arizona 01 (Open Seat) - Rick Renzi's retirement opens up this seat, Arizona's largest geographically, which hosted a worthwhile challenge by Ellen Simon in 2006 against the incumbent Republican. Renzi's indictment makes it even tougher for the Republican candidate, who'll have to distance himself or herself from Renzi. McCain will likely help the GOP candidate a lot, however. The Democratic primary will take place on September 2nd. The Republican candidate will be Sydney Ann Hay, a policy advocate. The likely Democrat is state legislator Ann Kirkpatrick, a woman who speaks fluent Navajo
Colorado 04 (Musgrave) - Musgrave pulled out a 3-point victory in 2006 and this seat remains up for grabs in a district covering Eastern Colorado and Fort Collins. Betsy Markey, Musgrave's 2008 opponent had a poll come out recently putting her ahead by 7 points. She has been campaigning since the fall of 2007 and has racked up impressive fundraising numbers. Still, the Eastern plains are very conservative and make this a tough district to win for any Democrat.
Connecticut 04 (Shays) - Chris Shays had threatened to retire if not given a ranking committee assignment. At this point, however, it appears that he'll stay in the race. He faces Greenwich Democratic chair Jim Himes from my hometown, who will be the latest in a long-line of Democrats who have tried and failed to knock of this long-time moderate Republican. Still, Shays has faced close races for the last few cycles, and remains endangered.
Florida 13 (Buchanan) - Katherine Harris' old seat became a battleground when she left to run her hilariously terrible Senate race in 2006. Democrat Christine Jennings faced off with Republican Vern Buchanan in what became one of the closest House races ever. Jennings lost by only 369 votes, and afterwards raised questions about accurate vote-counting. Will this coastal district in West Florida be as close this time? That remains to be seen. However, you cannot discount a race that close, and assume Vern Buchanan will have an easier time in 2008, even though indications are that he will hold on to his seat.
Illinois 10 (Kirk) - Moderate Republican Mark Kirk survived in this Democratic majority district in 2006 in the Chicago suburbs, but he remains vulnerable in 2008, and will face Dan Seals, his challenger in 2006. Kirk remains well-liked in his district and has been a strong fundraiser. I remember a conversation with a somewhat liberal friend of mine in 2006 that lived in the 10th District. She said she was voting for Mark Kirk because she knew him and had worked for his office in high school. She didn't care that he was a Republican. Multiply her story by many other constituents, and realize why Kirk keeps getting re-elected.
Louisiana 04 (Open Seat) - With Republican Jim McCrery retiring, this seat may be a compelling pick-up opportunity for Democrats in this emerging swing district in Western Louisiana. Democratic and Republican primaries will take place on September 6th.
Michigan 09 (Knollenberg) - Joe Knollenberg's 6-point victory may be enough to convince Democrats to spend some real money in this southeastern Michigan district in 2008. Former State Lottery Commissioner and Fmr. State Senator Gary Peters will be his Democratic challenger in 2008. This race will probably get a lot of press, not because of either of these two candidates, but because both will face an Independent by the name of Jack Kevorkian; Hopefully you know who that is, because I am not going to bother explaining it if you don't.
Minnesota 03 (Open Seat) - With the retirement of popular GOP incumbent Jim Ramstad, this swing district in the Minneapolis suburbs becomes a potential pick up for the Democrats. Iraq War veteran Ashwin Madia will face off against Republican state representative Erik Paulsen.
Missouri 06 (Graves) - This seat in Missouri's Northwest corner will present a unique pick-up opportunity with the Democrats running former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes. Graves ran a commercial with Nancy Pelosi, techno music, and what he intended to look like people from the gay community dancing in leather. Barnes countered with a commercial about economic issues claiming that Graves only ran the commercial because had no record to stand on. Will this commercial blowing up in the NRCC's face squelch future Republican attempts to scare voters with gay marriage and the word 'liberal' or will they too have to take on a more populist message?
Missouri 09 (Open Seat) - Another open seat has been created by Kenny Hulshof running for Governor. This district may have some potential with former Missouri Democratic House Speaker Steve Gaw, State Rep Judy Baker, and former State Senator Ken Jacob, and Marion County Commissioner Lyndon Bode in the Democratic primary race. Obama is polling well in Missouri, which may help them down-ticket if he retains his momentum in the Show-Me State. The Democrats aren't the only ones with a crowded primary, as the Republicans also have a large field. The Republican and Democratic primaries will be on August 5th. We'll know more at that time just how competitive this race will be in this relatively conservative district in northeastern Missouri.
New York 29 (Kuhl) - Randy Kuhl has had close races in the last two elections. There is no reason to expect anything different this time, even in rural southwest New York State. He will face his 2006 opponent, Navy Veteran Eric Massa, whom he beat that year by only 6,000 votes.
North Carolina 08 (Hayes) - In 2006, Robin Hayes struggled to keep his seat east of Charlotte, winning by only 329 votes against a relatively unknown challenger, Larry Kissell. He will face Kissell again in 2008.
Ohio 01 (Chabot) - Chabot's 6-point victory in 2006 shows that beating him will be tough in this district in Ohio's southwestern corner, but in 2008 he faces a much stronger challenger in minority whip of the Ohio state House, Steve Driehaus. Chabot also may struggle with his African-American constituents who make up over a quarter of the district's population.
Ohio 02 (Schmidt) - Jean Schmidt faces Victoria Wulsin once again in 2008. This should be another horse race in this conservative southern Ohio district. Jean Schmidt has a serious problem with likeability, which is why she has struggled in a district that Republicans seemingly shouldn't have any trouble with.
Washington 08 (Reichert) - A tight race in 2006 is likely to be tight in 2008 in this Democratic-leaning district in suburban Seattle. 2006 candidate Darcy Burner is likely to be the Democratic nominee once again, and she is likely to mount an even stronger challenge this time, given her strong fundraising and development as a candidate.
Slightly Vulnerable Republicans (13)
California 04 (Open Seat) - With an ongoing FBI investigation of he and his wife, John Doolittle retired, fearing a loss in this heavily Republican District in California's Northeastern corner. Challenger Charlie Brown got close in 2006, and may still have a shot if the Republicans aren't able to stray from Doolittle's ethical issues. Still, Republican State Senator Tom McClintock will be a formidable opponent here.
Florida 08 (Keller) - This seat was more competitive in 2006 than many expected, and despite being in Central Florida, has a Cook rating of R+3. The August 26th primary will determine who will be the Democratic challenger.
Florida 24 (Feeney) - As an ethically challenged Republican, Tom Feeney may be a target in 2008. He received 58% of the vote in 2006, in a race that was pretty much ignored in Florida's eastern coast. In 2006, Feeney faced a man who accused him of fixing his first election. Feeney was one of the characters featured in the HBO movie "Recount" about the 2000 Presidential Election, when he was the incoming Speaker of Florida House. In 2008, the August 26th primary will determine whom Feeney will face this time. He has become a DCCC target, more for his ethics than for his vulnerability. His likely opponent is former State Representative Suzanne Kosmas.
Idaho 01 (Sali) - Sali angered a lot of Republicans in his time in the Idaho legislature, but still won this seat by 5 points despite GOP defects in the State Party. Given his knack for saying the wrong thing, Sali could slip up and give the Democrats another shot. He faces businessman Walt Minnick.
Michigan 11 (McCotter) - Despite a strong victory 11-point victory in 2006, McCotter remains a potential target in this district northwest of Detroit. Not to give him advice, but Thaddeus would be wise not to call people "the Devil" just because they disagree with his vote against expanding health care for children. I think that is more like something Jesus would do. His Democratic challenger will be decided in August 5th.
Minnesota 06 (Bachmann) - Bachmann's strong victory in 2006 in this district northwest of Minneapolis may scare off some Democrats, but her far right conservatism may also scare off some voters. Here Democratic challenger is Elwyn Tinklenberg, a former Mayor of Blaine and the Commissioner of Transportation under Governor Jesse Ventura.
Nevada 02 (Heller) - Heller's 6 point victory in 2006 was strong, but it does not change the fact that growth in Northern Nevada will keep this a swing seat in 2008. Heller will again face his 2006 opponent, Jill Derby, the former head of the Nevada Democratic Party.
Ohio 14 (LaTourette) - LaTourette won with 58% of the vote in 2006 in this district covering Ohio's northeastern corner, yet this is still a swing district for 2008. Cook rating is R+2. LaTourette will face Appeals Court Judge William O'Neill, as his Democratic challenger.
Pennsylvania 06 (Gerlach) - Jim Gerlach pulled out tight victories the last two elections in this swing district northwest of Philadelphia, and he may face another tight contest this time. His Democratic opponent is Bob Roggio, retired businessman and Democratic Activist. Gerlach is probably in a better position in 2008 than he was in 2006, but he still isn't out of the woods yet.
Virginia 02 (Drake) - Despite losing in the polls with only a few weeks remaining until election day, Drake was able to keep her seat in southeastern Virginia by pulling out a decades old scandal on Democratic challenger Phil Kellam. The Democrats have another strong candidate to face her in 2008 in former diplomat Glenn Nye. Glenn Nye presently lacks name recognition, which is not a problem for Thelma Drake; however Drake was exposed during the tough 2006 contest and is still polling below 50% against Nye in the latest polls.
Virginia 10 (Wolf) - Despite a strong victory in 2006, Wolf faces a district in Northern Virginia that is trending more and more Democratic. He will face his 2006 opponent, Georgetown Professor, Judy Feder, who has proved herself a strong fundraiser. From personal experience, she is a very sweet lady with a lot of energy and knowledge.
West Virginia 02 (Capito) - Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito won 57% to 43% in 2006, yet this race still remains a target for the Democratic Party. In 2008, Capito will face Former State Director for US Senator Byrd, Anne Barth. Although Barth is a strong candidate, Capito is the only Republican Congressional representative of West Virginia, and will benefit from Obama's weakness in the state.
Wyoming at-large (Open Seat) - The Republicans are clearly better off without Barbara Cubin running, since she only won by 1,000 votes in 2006 in this very conservative state. However, Gary Trauner ran a strong campaign in 2006, and could still be a tough challenge for whoever the Republican is that runs for this seat. The Republican primary will take place on August 19th.
10 Other Republican races to watch
Arizona 03 (Shadegg), Florida 21 (Diaz-Balart), Illinois 06 (Roskam), Illinois 18 (Open Seat), Maryland 01 (Open Seat), Minnesota 02 (Kline), New Mexico 02 (Open Seat), Pennsylvania 03 (English), Pennsylvania 18 (Murphy), Virginia 05 (Goode)
Highly Vulnerable Democrats (9)
Alabama 05 (Open) - The retirement of Bud Cramer in this very "red" district encompassing the northern part of Alabama created a strong pick up opportunity for the GOP. The Democrats are running state senator Parker Griffith to be Cramer's successor. For the Republicans, businessman Wayne Parker will have a run-off against Republican attorney Cheryl Baswell Guthrie on July 15 to determine who will face Griffith in November.
California 11 (McNerney) - Pombo's defeat in 2006 appeared to be a great step for this district east of San Francisco, but its conservative voters may still change their minds. McNerney's best hope is that his strong clean energy stance will help validate him with the high costs of oil. He faces a reasonably strong challenger in 2008 in Fmr. State Assemblyman Dean Andal. This race leans slightly Democratic at this point.
Florida 16 (Mahoney) - Tim Mahoney may be fortunate that he probably won't face a big name Republican in 2008, but this remains a tough district for Democrats. The August 26th primary will determine who will be his Republican challenger. This race remains a toss-up.
Georgia 08 (Marshall) - Jim Marshall faced a tough contest in this conservative central Georgia district in 2006. He may face an even tougher challenge in 2008 against his likely opponent, Retired Air Force Major General Rick Goddard. Marshall will be challenged in the July 15th primary before he can face Goddard in November.
Kansas 02 (Boyda) - Was Boyda's victory in 2006 a fling for moderate-conservative voters, or will it be a lasting relationship? Jim Ryun appears to be up for a rematch, but faces a nasty primary challenge which could do some damage to his candidacy. Too bad for him they aren't competing in the Mile run. This district covers most of the Eastern Kansas border with Missouri, with the exception of Kansas City, Kansas and part of the college town of Lawrence.
New Hampshire 01 (Shea-Porter) - Carol Shea-Porter pulled off a surprising 51-49 victory in 2006 against the heavily favored incumbent Jeb Bradley. Bradley is running again, and if he wins the primary in September, which is expected, he will give her a strong challenge to get his seat back.
Pennsylvania 10 (Carney) - This year, Chris Carney doesn't have the luxury of running against a man embroiled in a sex scandal involving choking. This seat in Pennsylvania's northeastern corner is strong Republican-leaning, and Carney faces a much tougher challenger this time out.
Texas 22 (Lampson) - Lampson had a lot on his side in 2006 in Tom Delay's old seat south of Houston. Former aide to Senator Phil Gramm & US Navy Reserve Officer Pete Olson will be the Republican challenger. This would be a great victory if the Democrats can somehow hang on here.
Wisconsin 08 (Kagen) - Steve Kagen is a freshman Democrat in a Republican-leaning district in northeastern Wisconsin. He will face John Gard, Republican Speaker of the State Assembly and his challenger in 2006. This race is a toss-up at this point.
Vulnerable Democrats (6)
Indiana 09 (Hill) - Former and current Congressman Baron Hill won back his seat in southeastern Indiana in 2006, but it was the closest of the three Democratic victories in Indiana that year. He will again face former Congressman Mike Sodrel.
Louisiana 06 (Open) - Although this seat adds to the list of slightly vulnerable Democrats, do not fret. It was a Republican seat until May 3rd! That was until Democratic State Representative Don Cazayoux won the Special Election and took this seat from the Republicans. He will have to run again in November. The question is will he still take on former State Representative Woody Jenkins? Will his primary opponent run as an Independent? The district covers Baton Rouge and remains a swing district. However, the status of this race is up in the air at this time.
Mississippi 01 (Childers) -Travis Childers victory over Greg Davis on May 13th made this the 3rd Republican Congressional loss in 2008. This remains a heavily GOP district, but after two successful victories, the 2nd by 8 points, Childers chances to retain his seat in Northern Mississippi may be better than previously thought.
New York 20 (Gillibrand) - In 2008, Kirsten Gillibrand will face some decent GOP opposition in likely GOP candidate Sandy Treadwell, former chairman of the New York State Republican Party. She managed a 6-point upset victory over ethically challenged John Sweeney in 2006 in this swing district in upstate New York.
Pennsylvania 04 (Altmire) - As a freshman, Altmire is likely to face a tough challenge for re-election against former Congresswoman Melissa Hart, who he beat in 2006 in this swing district northwest of Pittsburgh.
Oregon 05 (Open Seat) - Darlene Hooley's retirements opens up this seat for the Republicans. This seat covers the relatively-conservative state capital of Salem and Hooley won over 55% of the vote only once during her tenure. Democrats are running State Senator Kurt Schrader against the 2006 GOP nominee Mike Erickson. Erickson is currently struggling due to an abortion scandal that has scarred him with the GOP faithful.
Slightly Vulnerable Democrats (11)
Arizona 05 (Mitchell) - While his victory was strong in 2006, the GOP could still mount a strong candidate against Harry Mitchell in 2008. This district in the Phoenix suburbs remains a swing district. In fact, there is presently a crowded Republican field vying for the opportunity. The Republican primary will be on September 2nd.
Arizona 08 (Giffords) - Although she had a strong victory to gain her seat in southeastern Arizona in 2006, Giffords now faces the President of the Arizona state Senate, Tim Bee. This should be an interesting race to see if she can still mount a big win in 2008.
Georgia 12 (Barrow) - John Barrow remains a vulnerable Democratic incumbent, who may have kept his seat in 2006 only due to the Democratic wave. However, he does not appear to have as strong a Republican challenger in 2008 in this district in Eastern Georgia. Still, he faces a primary challenge from his own Party. Georgia Congressional primaries take place on July 15th.
Illinois 08 (Bean) - Melissa Bean survived a strong challenge in 2006 owed in part to the Democratic wave in this district covering the northeast corner of Illinois. She will have her work cut out for her to retain her seat again. She faces wealthy businessman Steve Greenberg in 2008.
Illinois 14 (Foster) - After Denny Hastert left office early, Democrat Bill Foster won the district's special election 53-47 over Republican dairyman Jim Oberweis. This seat will remain slightly vulnerable for Foster as he enters Congress, but he stands a good chance of holding on in this Republican-leaning seat in northern Illinois.
Kentucky 03 (Yarmuth) - We have a rematch in the battle for Louisville between freshman John Yarmuth and Anne Northrup, the former Congresswoman he defeated in 2006. Although he defeated her soundly in 2006, that doesn't mean facing this well-known candidate is an easy victory.
New Hampshire 02 (Hodes) - Freshman Democrat Paul Hodes may face a strong challenge for the seat he picked up in 2006. There is a crowded primary on the Republican side to be decided in September. Hodes is likely to be dropped from this list if the Republican candidates can't get their fundraising together.
New York 19 (Hall) - Perhaps catapulted by his appearance on the Colbert Report singing songs from his days in the rock-band Orleans, John Hall's surprise victory in 2006 had many in the GOP scratching their heads. He may be able to skirt trouble in 2008 if the GOP can't get it together to mount a decent challenge in this district. The Republicans have already decided on their candidate, Iraq War Veteran, Kieran Michael Lalor.
Ohio 18 (Space) - This conservative-leaning district east of Columbus was ripe for a
GOP comeback against the fortunate freshman Democrat who rode the Bob Ney corruption/resignation wave to his seat in 2006. Yet the GOP has not been able to secure a strong challenger for this contest and Zack Space has a strong fundraising advantage.
Pennsylvania 11 (Kanjorski) - While not competitive in the last few elections, the decision by Hazelton Mayor Lou Barletta to run for this seat may result in a close race in northeastern Pennsylvania. At present Paul Kanjorski enjoys a huge fundraising advantage, as Barletta may be done in by the cash-strapped NRCC's inability to give him the backing he really needs.
Texas 23 (Rodriguez) - Democrats had to wait until December before Ciro Rodriguez could claim victory in this recently rearranged district in West Texas. He is likely to defend his seat this time, but remains somewhat vulnerable. He will face Republican Bexar County Commissioner Lyle Larson in the general election.
5 Other Democratic races to watch
Connecticut 02 (Courtney), Iowa 03 (Boswell), New York 24 (Arcuri), North Carolina 11 (Shuler), Pennsylvania 08 (Murphy)
Conclusion
As you can see, this is a very exciting year. The era of the entrenched incumbent is over. A Presidential year only ups the stakes. This year, the GOP is not only a minority party, they are on the ropes and struggling to prevent a Democratic super-majority. Democrats could theoretically have a 100 seat advantage if they gained 32 net seats, which is in the realm of possibility. Although a 50 seat advantage is more likely. To accomplish this, we need to read up and get educated about our candidates and their opponents and we need to support all of our candidates to give them a shot to win.
Key campaign resources
Cook Political Report
Politics1
Electoral Vote.com
Race Tracker
Daily Kos blogs on House districts
Larry Sabato House race analysis
Nick had previously represented part of the district before the Delay 2004 cycle redistricting
Nick has a strong track record with NASA, which is quite important in the district
he has strong support from lobbyists representing interests in the District - and some of them are at least nominally Republican, which means they think he may well hold the seat
he expects to benefit from the strong Dem turnouts that will be from African-Americans for Obama and Hispanics for Rick Noriega for the Senate
all of this was in on the record comments at a recent luncheon
and I call him Nick because we are personal friends - I was the only one there as an individual, all else were lobbyists, and one other Congressman (John Hall of NY) came by to tout Nick.
If this turns out to be like the 1980 election, then maybe he wins. But chances are he will lose. Texas didn't change much in the 2006 election. It has been two years, but I don't expect much. I expect Cornyn will keep his seat and the state delegation to the House will remain much the same with the pickup of the 22nd.
I tend to agree with you on TX-22.
I think Noriega has a better chance than you are giving him, but his fundraising sucks. Still, if his campaign can learn how to work with Barack's org to register hundreds of thousands of Latinos in south Texas, coupled with inner city voter drives in Houston and Dallas, demographics could win out.
TX-10, I can't say I am familiar with the area or the politicians who represent it. Well, I am familiar with Brenham, home to Blue Bell Ice Cream, which makes the best vanilla ice cream in the country. =) And looking at the map of the district, the only thing that really helps a Democrat is the inclusion of portions of Travis county. A Democratic win would seem predicated on Houston's suburbs switching sides. What indication is there of that happening?
As far as the Senate race goes, Rick Perry is still the governor of Texas. And I think that speaks volumes about the power of the Republican Party and the electorate in Texas. Democrats have not won a statewide race since 1994. Not that the state hasn't changed in 14 years, but I still don't think the climate has changed enough to allow for a statewide win. Unfortunately, chances are that Senator Cornyn keeps his job and the state hands its 34 electoral votes over to John McCain. Unless, again, this turns out to be like the 1980 election.