campaign operation to get a handle on why and how people voted.

AGain this is not a ding on the Byrne campaign but I am here to tell you there is enough antidocal evidence that suggest that the Emily List flyers and the War Profiteer meme was a huge slam for her campaign.

That type of literature could have done well against a Republican in GEorgia.  But the 11th district is full of contract and DOD employees that work for various organizations under the idea that what they do - does in fact help the troops and hopefully make any conflict (regardless of the reason) and protection for the service members there top mission.

 It was the wrong message to the wrong voting block in the wrong district.

Emily's list should have stayed out of it.  Plus just to much crap being mailed.  So what ever the last flyer that arrived in the mail box is the one that made the decision for a lot of voters.  

(this is observation from being out a lot of polls on Tuesday - and talking to voters.

1.) Why would Republicans want Connolly to win? They'd rather face Byrne because she's much more liberal, perhaps too liberal for the 11th. Fimian would have an easier time against her than Connolly because face it, while the 11th is turning blue, it ain't San Francisco. So I don't buy that argument.

2.) You barely noticed any negative campaigning/fliers? Really? Then obviously, as you stated, you don't live in the 11th. I 100 percent agree with totallynext's comments: it was a horrendous decision to attack contractors and label them as some evil monster war profiteers. That sunk her. You don't do that when a large number of potential voters either are contractors or know contractors. It was disrespectful of the hard work they do day in and day out supporting the troops.  

Hey Ron1 -
Thanks for starting up this discussion.

First, as we write the history of this race, things are becoming a bit more clear. This is in some ways a very unique case.  Overall, it appears that the "war profiteer" issue solidified support behind Gerry, and drove hoards of contractors and govt employees out in his favor.  

I think that this particular dynamic may have undone the fine work that Leslie did in identifying her progressive credentials. It's an effect unique to the district and not something we can generalize around too much, except to say that you have to know your electorate.  If the same race and same mailers had gone out in the 8th, I think Leslie would have won.  

I think that once that mailer set a tone of negativity, all of the blog negativity just contributed to the perception that Gerry was being unfairly attacked.  If there were valid questions, attacks, or contrasts made, they were lost to most in the overall sense of negativity.  So, I don't think that Gerry's win necessarily discredits opposition blogging per se, we've had very successful efforts.  What it does say is that it's not a cure-all.

As for the larger question of "how do we elect strong progressives?".  I'd begin by understanding the progressive issues that are already very important to voters.  TK overwhelmingly won voters in the 11th because of his (as yet thoroughly and disgracefully unfulfilled) promises about smart growth and urban planning.  

Getting out and working is critical.  Once we identify a winning progressive candidate we have to back up our informed opinion with sweat.

Finally, I'd argue that one of the most important things we do is ensuring "legislative accountability".  We need to keep track of what electeds do while in office. It gives us a chance to sing the praises of some great progressives (can I get a wOOT for David Englin!).  It helps us focus for fights around important votes.  It gives us ammo for primaries.  

I think that the overall thesis of your piece is that it doesn't stop with an election, and you're absolutely right.

In the 11th, Gerry Connolly has made some powerfully progressive promises during this campaign.  Most notably on the Iraq war.  We've got to stay awake here, people.  

Overall, it appears that the "war profiteer" issue solidified support behind Gerry, and drove hoards of contractors and govt employees out in his favor.  

Where's the evidence for such a statement? You've got no polling, no exit poll info, no nothing. there's just no evidence by which to suggest such a thing-- pure speculation.

There's absolutely zero evidence of that.  Maybe it happened, maybe it didn't, but "it appears" is not evidence.

who did her a lot of unsolicated information back to us.

Out of 150 voters - over 10 expressed their deep disappointment in the mailers and the tone of the mailers.

We got the same type of sampling when doing voter outreach and canvanssing.

Was it scientific - no - but there was enought to notice a specific trend and a specific reason why someone made a decision between leslie and Gerry.

 You may have liked it - you may have thought the argument had merit - however many of the voters didn't.

 Oh and PS - several, serveral people commented on the GOTV calls from the Byrne campaign - on how the told them they had their support and they did not need to call again - and guess what they called them back two and three times.  I know of 3 people who voted for Gerry because of that - when they were on the fence.

about the EMILY's List mailer backfiring.  So maybe they're something to that, but will we ever really know?

Because the candidates could afford big radio and TV buys all they did was mail.  I'm not sure voters are sophisticated enough to know the difference between an Emily's List mailer and a Leslie mailer, especially when they are hitting the same day.  It might have helped if the Emily's List flyers were more clear to NOT being from Leslie.

GoTV is a high-contact, low-feedback operation -- it's just very difficult to filter out the sure votes from the larger database of the universe of voters you want to remind and persuade to get to the polls. I do agree there were inefficiencies in the process.

I got plenty of people that were just sick of hearing from us, but also some that still didn't know there was an election. I personally convinced somewhere between 5-10 people to get out and vote (or at least that's what they told me) that either weren't on our lists (other voters in a household; people in the neighborhoods I was canvassing that I just started conversations with on the fly; etc.) that were not targeted. But the final few days, it does seem like we over-blanketed certain areas.  

that's less than 10 percent of people you spoke with. And what they "appeared" to be telling you was that they didn't like the negativity.

What I was reacting to was this notion that a bunch of "defenders of defense contractors" turned out to vote.

That's complete bullshit.

How many people did you talk to who said I'm voting for Gerry Connolly because I'm mad that Byrne called SAIC a "war profiteering" company?

I spoke to one woman that said she likes Leslie but was voting for Gerry because Leslie went negative first -- a reference I believe to the EMILY's List mailer. There were other comments about people not liking the negativity.

In the end, I don't think this is the decisive factor in what happened.

Anyone have a copy of the mailer that can be scanned in? I'm curious as to how inflammatory it really is. From what I've heard, the same points hitting Gerry for his SAIC connections could have been made in a much less inflammatory manner, i.e. not inferring that all defense contractors are war profiteers, etc.  

here and here.

For me, the real issue for RK is understanding the role of the blogosphere and how it affects these elections.

When I talk to the few people I know in politics, they do not take blogs seriously, IMHO. My sense is that they view blogs and those of us who read and post at them as simply another interest group that they need to placate and not offend.

That, of course, is a gross generalization. there are many who view blogs as a valuable organizing tool and resource that can provide intelligence, serve as a means to debate, hone a message, raise money and organize and fire up supporters.

This same transformation is playing out on a national level as well as on a state level.

While elections may be democratic, political parties are not. Within parties, it is really small numbers of individuals and groups who vie for power and influence, sometimes for venal purposes, more often than not because of sincerely-held altruistic beliefs.

Blogs, however, are quite opposite to this. Blogs open up the party process to numerous people who in years passed may have expressed their opinions over a beer, but had no real effect on the debate beyond their single vote. Now, of course, a blogger digs up an embarrassing video or quote from a long forgotten newspaper article, and it can change a race in an instant.

Now, a small, determined campaign can mobilize resources and fund-raising toward a candidate who may not be the choice of the senior party officials.

So, even as parties see blogs as a powerful interest group, they also have an institutional reason to minimize their power, because influence within the structures of a political party is a zero-sum game.

Far from a debate over whether the ground-game was effective, or the effect of 527s, IMHO the real issue to be debated is the role that blogs, generally, and RK in particular, ought to play in the process and how best to accomplish that.

In many ways, the race in the 11th holds many lessons.

Ok, have to sunscreen the kids now....  

But I disagree with what I perceive to be your conclusion, that "even as parties see blogs as a powerful interest group, they also have an institutinoal reason to minimize their power."  Honestly, there isn't any sort of greater philosophical question here about why blogs and the "establishment" can't get along.  This isn't about unDemocracy vs. eDemocracy (and the notion that the democratic party isn't as democratic as blogs is ridiculous, by the way--25,000 people voted in the 11th CD primary on Tuesday, and I promise you there aren't 25,000 people from the 11th CD reading this blog on any given day).

I know a few people wanted to frame the Connolly v. Byrne race as an extension of some greater conflict between the netroots and some nebulous establishment, but really now: what conflict?  Much like the Connolly v. Byrne race itself, there really isn't any contest beyond what people here are perceiving.  The blogs were either ineffective at influencing the outcome of the race, or they were counterproductive and ultimately benefited Gerry (which is just a different way of being ineffective).  In either case, the question becomes why the internet was so ineffective at transforming this race into one that Byrne could win--particularly since Obama has demonstrated so resoundingly over the past year how useful the internet can be at transforming a race.

There isn't any sort of deep philosophical question here, just the simple, plain old mechanical questions of how are the blogs effective, and how are they ineffective.

that the issue of the role of the blogs is a practical one, although I think that practical question has to be seen within the framework of the larger, more overarching dynamic.

In asking how blogs affected, or failed to affect, the race in the 11th, a race about which the state's most widely-read Democratic and progressive blogs cared alot about, I think the relationship between edemocracy and the party apparatus needs to be considered.

If I suggested the party was in any way undemocratic, that wasn't my intent. You are absolutely right on the numbers. Rather, the nature of the participation in reading and commenting on a blog is quite different than that of voting. In voting, you are essentially making a choice, but your input into the options are relatively limited.

As a party insider, however, you have a significant amount of input (relative to a voter) in defining the options.

On a blog,  you have probably more influence than the "mere" indivdiual voter (even just a couple of commenters like you and me, Silence :)) -- or alot, like Lowell and Ben, if you end up owning a successful blog. That is a huge difference. Pre-blog, I was a vote. Now, thanks to the forum provided by blogs like RK, I can be a voice.

There is a fundamental change taking place in the participatory nature of our democracy because of the series of tubes we call the Internets. On the one hand, the question is tactical, but those tactical aspects are part of a larger technological and philosophical realignment that is heading someplace. If I knew where, I'd write a book.

This gets to the heart of what I'm hoping we can use this race (and others) to begin thinking about -- how do we integrate blogs and online media and advocacy into our larger organizing structure.

I, personally, am going to start getting more involved with Alexandria Democratic politics and organizing as one lesson of this.

Thanks aznew and Silence. I'll be touching on your thoughts in my next diary or two. Very good stuff.  

You assert that you have a fundamentally different and greater influence in the political process thanks to blogs like Raising Kaine relative to the influence you had before blogs as a voter.

Let's assume the existence of a generic primary voter who participated in Tuesday's election--meaning that there's a 57% chance this generic primary voter voted for Connolly to win.  Between you as a blogger and this generic primary voter as one of the 25,000 people who voted in the 11th CD race, who exercised greater influence over who won and who lost?

I've just been pretty busy.

I can't really answer the question in any kind of quantitative sense capable of a proof. Anyway, the issue is not any particular voter (say me or you, or even a generic voter), but the nature of the involvement to me.

I kind of think of it the way Arlo Guthrie did in his anti-war/draft song Alice Restaurant. If just one person walks into their draft board wherever they are, sings a line from Alice's Restaurant, and walks out, they'd think he's really crazy, and they won't take him. That's the voter.

But if 50 people a day did it, he sings, they'd think it's a movement.

That's the Internet.

It's been one of those weekends. :)

I know you can't quantify the effect you have on the political process via blogs.  That was kind of my point.  Even in the annecdote you offered as a comparison, Arlo Guthrie offers quantifable metrics to compare and contrast "crazy individual" versus "movement."  50 > 1, right?

Also, 25,000 > 1, so I can't help but wonder if your analogy isn't backwards.  Why is the unquantifiable consequence of some people blogging qualified as a movement, while 25,000 people all going to the polls one crazy guy singing a line from Alice's Restaurant?  That's 500 times what Guthrie had hoped for!

If Alice's Restaurant is going to offer metrics to quantify its success--even arbitrary ones--why should blogging get away with not being empirically challenged?

The numbers in this race didn't move from day one.  Gerry Connolly's first poll in January showed him with a 20 point lead.  

http://gerryconnolly.com/node/36

Every poll he took after that gave him a 20-point lead.  He won the FCDC JJ Dinner Straw Poll by 20 points.

I don't think there was any more Republican crossover than usual (I remember in '04 in the 8th we saw about 5% GOP crossover).  

The Fairfax County turnout numbers were about the same as Webb-Miller.  Neither candidate really broadened the universe much.

Gerry started with a lead and the undecideds pretty much came down the same as everyone else as the race developed.  

Gerry is a very aggressive and effective campaigner.  He beat Devolites to win his first Board Chair race, and in his '03 Board Chairman race he effectively neutralized Michelle Brickner by effectively tagging her as a book-banner.  He will steamroll Fimian in this race and represent us well in Congress.  

And he should know better than anyone.

are pretty much worthless when you only get 3%, 4%, 5% turnout.  Good luck figuring out who will show up on election day.  

He beat Devolites to win his first Supervisor's race and Bricker in his first Board Chair race....

After reading all the fine responses in this diary, I think this macro-level analysis explains most of the result -- Gerry is just well-known and popular in Fairfax.

[And, the fact that FCDJ JJ Straw Poll also favored Gerry tells me that the results probably do reflect the will of the majority of FC Democrats.]

I went back and re-read the polling memo linked, and the interesting thing is that Gerry led Leslie in all types of Dems, with his largest lead amongst the most liberal voters. This is the disconnect that I think needs to be thought about in terms of how we learn from this and learn as a community to create space for progressive candidates and then effectively organize to promote and elect them.

Thanks again.

1. I don't think this was a Republican effort.  Either way they'd be facing a strong candidate - Leslie would pull a lot of votes from the progressive/liberal side and Gerry would pull a lot of votes from the moderate/Tom Davis side.  And Gerry has a lot of options since he can play up his Dem credentials and play up his similarities to Tom Davis - therefore pulling from the left, middle, and even some right.  Now if we saw Lori pull over 50% of the vote then I'd suspect something was up.

2. Gerry's type of leadership is fairly well positioned for Fairfax.  We've got a lot of moderate left right now - not hard core left.  So his pro-business, pro-development approach has a lot of fans in the district.  That's not to say that we'll never elect someone who is more progressive, but in hindsight I don't think Leslie was the candidate we needed to take down Gerry in this district.  Perhaps we should have seen it coming.

3. No signs.  We did get blasted with calls, door knockers, and mail from both Leslie and Gerry.  But Leslie had no signs on the streets.  Signs might not vote, but they do help reinforce a candidates presence - especially for people who don't follow the details but are still loyal primary voters.  Signs aren't going to win it, but lack of signs probably cost Leslie some votes.

4. I agree with others above that the direct attack on SAIC as a war profiteer was a bad idea.  If you're going to do that you must first prove that SAIC is a war profiteer, then go after Gerry.  And even then, as has been pointed out, defense contractors are popular in this area so even if they are profiteering it's still probably a bad idea to go after them.  Going after Gerry's relationship with SAIC was/is fair game - but the angle they needed to take was a conflict of interest and that Gerry was moonlighting when he should have plenty of work to do to run a county of 1 million people.  

5. Negativity in general?  I don't think that did much.  The turn out, relative to the past few primaries, was up in the 11th.  It can be argued that had this been a feel good friendly primary that it'd be even higher.  Perhaps - but we can't tell based on a few stats alone.  But by the same tolken, it's even more ridiculous to argue that the negativity hurt the turn out because the turn is clearly up.    

6. Negativity hurting Leslie?  Total unknown.  Gerry's supporters were quick to come after us, Emily's list, and anyone who said anything bad about Gerry after they won - citing that it's all our fault because of the negativity.  First off, there are too many factors (see above in my comments and others) to come to this conclusion.  Second, and more important, if Gerry's supporters really truly believe that, why are they calling us and begging that we support Fimian in the same manner we supported Leslie?  If our efforts destroyed Leslie, why wouldn't the same efforts similarly destroy Fimian and guarantee a victory for Gerry?

7. Gerry is the face of the Democratic party in Fairfax, and for both insiders and casual viewers that position had a lot of pull.  He isn't the incumbent in Congress, but his current position provided him with some of the benefit of running as an incumbent.  

Ultimately I don't think there is any one reason for what happened.  If I had to pick, I'd say the large margin is mostly due to #2 and #7.  We thought it'd be close - we were wrong.  But if you took out #2 and #7, we'd probably be back to neck and neck - or perhaps even looking at Leslie pulling away.

#6, the second point, should have a "aren't" instead of "are".  As far as I know, NO Gerry supporter has called on any of us to support Fimian and continue to go after Gerry.

This seat is a prime Democratic pickup opportunity, no way are we going to hand it to a friend of right-wingnut Tom Monaghan's.

I agree with most of what you write here Eric, thanks for the thoughtful analysis.

Just to be clear, I am not saying by bringing up the Republican card that I think this election was in any way a result of dirty tricks or shenanigans, what have you.

But, I do think we need to think about which electoral mechanisms are best for both ascertaining the desires of Democratic voters in primaries; reducing the number of elections to reduce voter fatigue; and enhance the legitimacy of elections.  

I'm a very liberal Dem who voted for Connolly - I voted for the person who I felt would represent Fairfax the best.  Plus don't discount the fact that he has been county chairman for a number of years now - his name recognition is much better than Byrne.  Fairfax County is a huge county that has many issues confronting it everyday and I feel that he has done a good job to make sure that this county continues to be one of the top counties in the U.S.  I've been happy with his performance and I don't think that Connolly's beliefs can be compromised by who he works for or who supports him financially.  I felt this experience would make him a great congressman to represent us.

I wonder how either of these nominees for the 11th would vote or what their view is on the subsidy of Amtrak with some proosed 15 billion tax payer dollars to support just 1.5 percent of the US population.

Dont get me wrong but without demanding some levels of service or addtional accountability requirements why should we as taxpayers pay for this subsidy. If it gets to Bush I hope he has the sense? to veto this pork and prevent Congress from this giveaway.

15 billion? How much of that I wonder could help with real transportation changes and advancements. Maybe support the Tysons project or other more promising endeavors than Amtrak who can't seem to run their business effectively anyway.

You do realize that $15 billion is less than .5 percent of the federal budget?

This anti-tax, anti-government idiocy does nobody any good.

You do realize that people died in Minneapolis because anti-tax zelots short changed critical infrastructure investments and a bridge collapsed.

You do realize that that's only one of thousands of projects in roadways across the country that are underfunded.  

America needs responsible government, which is hard enough to deliver without greedy corporatist power-mongers fighting the effort to educate our children, pave our roads, balance our budgets and basically make the country work right.

get over yourself!  

incredibly smart investment, unlike the tens of billions we waste in stupid corporate subsidies every year to ExxonMobil,  ADM, etc.

the country's investment in rail -- Metro, Amtrak, high-speed rail, street cars/trolleys -- should be cranked up enormously.   At at time of $130 per barrel oil, global warming and dangerous dependency on countries that aren't our friends, we should be moving rapidly away from sprawl/cars and towards smart growth/rail.

the free markets and privitalization. And I am the one who gets called "ignorant". Why about the airlines? You guys want the government to subsidize what you guys hold value in and then slam others for giving oil companies a break on a revenue generation of 7%. Good luck. Exposing the hypocricy of the elitists is amusing here at RK. Lets get some of Apples , Microsofts, Costcos, Walmarts profits that are much greater on return on investment than the oil companies. Oh lets subsidize the coffee industry b/c my latte is now 4 bucks the same price as gas. Subsidize the auto industry to make electric cars, hydrogen cars, and hybrids. Oh yeah then we will do universal healthcare as well. We will raise the capital gains tax, raise the tax on small business that file as individuals I guess in order to pay for some of this as well right in the middle of declining economy.
I am not against investment in rail, but how many post have you done about the Tysons line? Who is going to pay for that? Should people out west be paying for Amtrak? We have bailed out banks, oil companies, airlines in the past , now if you want some government money just make sure you manage to run an unsuccessful operation and the government will reward you and susidize your endeavor.
How about competition? This is where the center leaves you folks in the dust and why you will not win the center each cycle. Are Amtraks passenger counts declining? Are they not sharing the rail lines with CSX, NS and others that already compensating for much of the expenses for rail infrastructure?
If Amtrak was a publically traded company I guess it would be included in your list of "power-mongers" but then if they were public they would have filed bankruptcy yeasr ago my friends.
15 billion may seem like piddles in the bucket of the budget but it simply is just the beginning. We need to start somewhere and if people are serious about earmarks and projects that should not be funded....via our US Constitution unless you can tell us what you are going to cut in spending to pay for it.
You jokers are the same who will never support a balanced budget amendment and speaks volumes about your integrity in terms of the budgetary process.

Which of the statistics in your last comment were made up?  Because as evidenced above, you're always making up at least one.

Because their really wasn't that much difference between Byrne and Connolly on the issues, my decision came down to a gut feeling:

1. I despise our BOCS chair Corey Stewart. Connolly gets under Stewart's skin on a regular basis. Score one point for Gerry Connolly.

2. As long as I've lived in PWC (20 years), Leslie Byrne has been lurking in the political background. The impression I (and others) have is that she runs, but rarely wins. Even if that's not an accurate assumption, her name has been suggested as a possible candidate for so many different races that it's as if she's a candidate in search of something to run for. What can she bring to the table that's new? Not much, from my perspective. Score another point for Connolly.

3. I was disgusted by her nasty mailers that seemed to arrive in my mail box daily -- sometimes two or three on the same day. I don't care if they were from her or generated by Emily's List. They were nasty and manipulative, and I didn't appreciate the deluge. That's tree points for Connolly.

4. I thought it was stupid, yes, stupid, to attempt to paint Connolly as a hypocrite in his opposition to the Iraq War because he work at SAIC in their community relations department. He said he's against the war, and I have no reason to believe otherwise. Four points for Connolly.

5. I have a hard time forgiving her efforts to stem residential overcrowding in Fairfax when she was a VA State Senator. I thought it was political opportunism at best, and I didn't care for how she approached the issue.
Five points for Connolly.

So I voted for Connolly.  

I pretty much agree with themom59 on this one.

The one thing I'll add is about the low turnout: I didn't see a single sign or ad or anything out where I live. It's almost like the 11th doesn't carry into PWC at all. If it wasn't for the mailers, many people wouldn't have known there was an election at all.

Some for Connolly and Dennedy. None for Byrne.

...is that, this time around, I didn't feel like Leslie's heart was really in it.  She used to be such a firebrand, but this time, she didn't seem to have much fire left.  Whenever I saw her speak, she sounded worn out and a little dull.  

Gerry by contrast was energetic and enthusiastic, throwing out the applause lines and lighting up the crowds.  

I like Leslie, but the voters can tell if your heart isn't in it anymore, and the one who wants the job more is usually the one that wins.