Ret. Gen. James Jones, Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, John Edwards, Evan Bayh, Kathleen Sebelius, Ted Strickland, Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, Jim Webb, Bill Nelson, Jack Reed, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Tom Daschle, and Sam Nunn
Looks like all 3 Virginians will be on the long "short list." I don't see John Kerry (New England Liberal), Jack Reed (New England Liberal), or Chris Dodd (guess what?) as serious contenders... So all three major VA Democrats are at least in the top dozen being considered.
Webb would be the best choice of the three Virginians--though Warner is equally appealing, taking him out of the Senate race would be, in my opinion, a big mistake.
I agree with you that he's not the best suited to deliver Virginia, it doesn't get any better than Mark Warner, but I think he's about equally as capable of pushing us into the blue column as Webb. The reason I support Webb is because I think he helps us much more in OTHER states, but here in VA I think their strengths are pretty equal.
Webb brings other strengths--most notably his resume, his "roots," and his relative success as a freshman Senator--that will be helpful outside Virginia.
Sadly, at least in his home state, these positive attributes have not as yet overcome his personality deficits (his unfortunate popularity rating has been the subject of more than a few posts on this site).
He'd be a fine choice nationwide--but Warner would be better.
You're correct that Kaine, while a fine fellow, brings very little that Obama doesn't already have. Webb and Warner would both bring something new to the table.
Not by a long shot.
Again, it's all about the winner-take-all electoral votes. It's not the 'not by a long shot' major victory that's necessarily the goal in Virginia, but the eminently doable 51% of the vote we're after. Coincidentally (or not), that's the exact number of Webb's latest approval rating. 51% of the VA vote for Obama Webb would be more than fine if it also guarantees the ticket 51% in some other states as well.
As an aside, though it's only got 3 electoral votes, if Webb does get picked for VP, a couple of days of Jim Webb campaigning in Montana would decisively turn that state of independent thinkers blue. Though it's currently polling in the McSame column, Webb is exactly the kind of guy who would appeal to Montanans who, though somewhat leery of the urbane Obama, have elected New Democrats like Webb's friend and ally Senator Jon Tester and its most excellent Governor Brian Schweitzer.
And, though, again, it's only got 3 electoral votes, Montana would join Colorado and New Mexico in the blueing of the Rocky Mountain West. And that would help in future election cycles.
Judging from what I've learned from my in-laws about So. Dak. politics, I think it's fair to say that those who are registered Republicans are generally quite moderate Republicans and don't pay much attention to the national GOP "leaders" when it's time to vote in general elections.
This is the state that sent both George McGovern and Tom Daschle to the U.S. Senate, and I've yet to meet one So. Dak. Republican who has anything good to say about George the Lesser of Crawford. All of those I know really want us out of Iraq ASAP and think McCain is too old and too much like Bush.
I have no doubt at all that Daschle would help Obama win South Dakota by a landslide. Which is why I think South Dakota this year is D-leaning, certainly not R-leaning. A state that likes Tim Johnson (D) enough to elect him to the Senate and likes Tom Daschle so much is not at all likely to vote for a Republican, especially McCain for reasons I've mentioned above.
Going back a few years, if the Democrats had not lost the Senate majority and Daschle had remained as Senate majority leader he most likely would have been a top Dem. Pres. candidate possibility.
In the Senate Tom was exceptionally good at working with the Republican Senators, in large part becuase he was (and still is) highly respected by many GOP Senators because of his bi-partisan approach. I think that relationship plus his extensive experience and broad knowledge of many critical areas would be a tremendous asset, both in the general election campaign and as VP. His calm personality, pragmatic approach and national/international respect would be a strong plus to the ticket and to post election contributions he could make.
I really hope Obama puts Daschle on his very short list (he may have already done that). That would be a very strong ticket, with Daschle bringing no negative baggage at all so far as I can determine.
Thanks for the Daschle reminder. I also hope the DNC will encourage Obama to give very serious consideration to Daschle as his VP choice.
T.C.
Understandably, a lot of people like Hillary Clinton to head HHS. I have a better idea though. Make her Chair of the Health, Education, Labor, & Pensions Committee. There is precedent for this; the GOP made Fred Thompson Chairman of the Governmental Reform Committee after he'd been in the Senate for only 2 years(!).
Fact of the matter is that Tom Daschle, as majority leader, front and center, the most important man in the Senate, couldn't win re-election. In my mind, fair or not, that takes him out of the running for VP. Yes, SD is the state that sent Tom Daschle to the Senate, but it is also the state that sent him back home.
On a more practical front, South Dakota is only 3 electoral votes. Even if putting Daschle on the ticket would guarantee SD goes blue (and I don't think that's a given), it's just three electoral votes for the price of putting someone on the ticket the Republicans can portray as a loser who couldn't win re-election even though he held the top party position in the Senate.
I called it in January. I have always thought Biden would be the selection because of the foriegn policy experience but am not as confident now as then but would still think the pick the most appropraite save the change criticism I guess.
I'm loathe to get into this prediction game. Some of the people mentioned here would not be good. I hope he chooses someone with solid foreign policy credentials as that person has to be prepared to step into the presidency. I also hope Sen. Obama chooses someone who shares his ideals and is able to communicate with the public effectively.
My prediction in no order:
-a foreign policy maven such as Joe Biden
-Jim Webb
-Bill Richardson
I see Webb as someone (running with Obama) who brings a compelling symbolism to the role. As a Hispanic American, Richardson also brings some symbolic pull, but not quite as much as Webb. Personally, I like Richardson a lot and think he'd be a great addition. It depends on what Obama needs/wants in mid-late August.
Perhaps this has already been discussed.... Someone mentioned on another blog the possibility of Warner running for the Senate, as well as Obama's VP, at the same time (ala Joe Lieberman in 2000). Is that allowable in Virginia? If Obama/Warner won, would we have a special election for the Senate seat?
The former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO and Commandant of the Marine Corps is to some degree a product of Jim Webb's decisions back in the Reagan administration (SecNav Webb). Then Webb found and fought for a Warrior Commandant in Al Gray to be in charge ... and Col Jim Jones was his chief of staff.
The Marine Corps is not a static institution. It ebbs and flows like the tide with an ever present feeling it could just go away in the minds of Washington Politicians .... http://www.antiwar.com/lind/?a...
But in the final analysis I think that Jim Jones would be best as a Secretary of Defense ... even though that's never been done (having a former General run the Department of Defense).
He said he has heard his name being mentioned as a VP possibility but he wants to be the NEXT SENATOR FROM VIRGINIA.
Lets all let Mark Run his campaign for Senate and Focus on the Campaign so we can be a landslide winner in NOVEMBER with the name WARNER being in WASHINGTON... I know that is what I want.