I agree with much of what you say, but I disagree with the following:

*"If Jim Moran doesn't break 90%, something is very wrong."  I mean, there are going to be people who will vote against Moran simply to make a statement.  I think Moran should win at least 80%-90% tomorrow, but it's not "very wrong" if he gets under 90%.

*I agree that whoever wins the Republican nomination in the 8th will be crushed by Moran this November, especially given Arlington Democrats' goal of 80% turnout, 80% Democratic performance.

*I agree with your analysis of the 10th.

*On the 11th, everything I'm hearing indicates that this has come down to a two-way race between Gerry Connolly and Leslie Byrne, with neither candidate particularly favored to win.  In other words, flip a coin, it's all going to come down to who shows up tomorrow.

Don't quit your day job.  When you provide absolutely nothing to corroborate your calling Connolly a slight favorite, combined with your frequent attempts to balance attacks on Connolly on this blog by saying nice things about Connolly, there is not only no reason to believe you, there's one big reason to disbelieve you.  Discouraging voters is a reprehensible anti-Democratic tactic.  You should leave it to the Republicans where it belongs.

We have a different interpretation, so I must be a 19-year old Robert Mugabe.

I'm sorry for implying you were deliberately discouraging voters.  I admit I'm too biased to make a prediction that anyone should pay attention to.  I wish you could admit that yourself.  Honestly, I didn't read the second part of your post in which you did provide a reason (well, sort of, "Fairfax's top elected Democrat" doesn't give Connolly an edge in my opinion, but as I said I'm too biased).  More importantly to me, you said "I think" in the second part of your post.  I guess my own edginess about the race may betray a little anxiety on my part that people will vote for Connolly for no good reason other than name recognition, and Connolly's pandering to the fear and ignorance of voters by labeling Byrne as less electable in November, because she's lost elections.  I'm biased, I don't find "handicapping" this particular election fun at this time [again, because I'm worried?], and I do think that macho boasting about one's preferred candidate does discourage more voters than it encourages by giving the already too apathetic voters an excuse to not vote, because the conclusion is foregone.

I was wondering where you were coming from with the discourage voters line.

Thanks for fixing that.

How is making a prediction that someone is a "slight favorite" discouraging voters?  If anything, won't people be encouraged to vote if there's perceived to be only a slight margin between the candidates?

I suspect that James is right that Connolly has the edge --Gerry runs the Democratic machinery around these parts, won the JJ Dinner straw poll, has more bucks, etc.  

But in truth, no one can predict what will happen in a primary expected to have a turnout of 5-7%.  Polls are utterly worthless in such a situation.  It's all GOTV.  We won't know who won until they win.

Gerry didn't even get the highest number of votes in a single precinct in his last election-- hardly seems like that's the guy who "runs the Democratic machinery" around these parts.

MORE incentive to get out there today and help Leslie beat Gerry Connolly.  This thing's probably going to be very, very close, so every vote matters.  Call you friends, call your neighbors, GOTV for Leslie!

at my mother's house today.  He was phonebanking for himself.  I laughed and told him that no, my 87 year old mother is not going to the polls tomorrow in this heat, notwithstanding that she's a Republican, and yes, I've actually heard of him and listened to him with Mark Ellmore on Mark Plotkin's show last week.  I told him I'd never vote for him, but was pleased about his stance on Gitmo, civil rights, and torture.  That in turn seemed to please him.  I then said I hoped he does very well tomorrow, if only to tweak the Republican election machine, and he candidly replied that he expects to lose.  Ellmore has all the endorsements of the Republican party faithful while Singh is basically a Ron Paul libertarian.  All in all a very nice discussion.  I hope he does very well tomorrow, if only to show the split among the Republicans and because he seems to be a genuinely nice guy.  At least we agreed that neocons suck and it used to be better when conservatives were actually conservatives.  

Tom Davis, Connolly's mentor, would still control the 11th CD.

And Connolly, the Corporate Democrat (AKA Republican) would still control the Fairfax Board of Supervisors.

It doesn't get any worse than this.

The guy is shilling for the military industrial complex, to say the least, and we don't need that for sound economic development in NoVA.  

but I can tell you that Connolly has been a shill for the developers here in Fairfax County. He has created a "pay to play" environment of exchanging zoning approval for campaign contributions.

If he is rewarded with a seat in Congress, you can bet that he'll take his "pay to play" game to new heights there.

It won't be pretty.

This afternoon in the 8th I got a robocall from kaine (for Jim Moran)

I think robocalls  are passe fer sure

I agree on all the others, so lets just skip to the main event...

Lori Alexander has run an interesting campaign, showing her inexperience and lack of self censorship while at the same time being refreshingly honest.  But unfortunately for her, too honest for politics.  She's made solid improvements from when I first saw her speak to the last time and she certainly has been trying.  Hard to tell, but we may see her again in the future if she tries to build on and improve what she started.  Tomorrow: 3%

Doug Denneny has also had a few rookie mistakes, but overall he's come across as a strong candidate.  Like Lori, he's shown very solid improvements - especially in areas that would not be considered his greatest strength (i.e. outside of Iraq).  He's got what it takes to be a player and has a real shot in the future - should he stay in the game.  Had this race not been a battle between two well established big name candidates, we would likely be talking about a real possibility of Denneny pulling an upset.  Tomorrow: 12%

The Big One is very difficult to call.  Polls from both camps show a tight race and, as we frequently hear, it is going to come down to who can turn out the votes.  

In Gerry Connolly's favor, as James points out, is the fact that Gerry is the leader of the Fairfax political establishment.  He has strong support for those involved locally - he won the straw poll at the JJ dinner and at the Fairfax Townhall debate he had more supporters (at least they were more verbal).   He's got a lot of signs on the roads and a number in yards.  I know, signs don't vote, but he is getting his name out there for those not in-the-know.  He's probably got slightly better name recognition because of his current position.

In Leslie Byrne's favor... She also has strong name recognition from the elected positions she's held and the recent run for Lt. Governor.  While Gerry may hold a slight edge, it's certainly not significant.  Leslie is backed by the vast majority of the liberal and progressive netroots - which should not be underestimated after their support pushed Webb to an upset victory over the establishment candidate Harris Miller two years ago.  And finally, in recent days Leslie's campaign has been laying down a very strong ground game - they are getting the calls out, knocking on doors, and generally getting their message out.  Much more so than Connolly - as a recipient of these GOTV efforts from both teams, I can say beyond any doubt that the Byrne team's efforts have been far stronger the past week.  Gerry had an early edge in mailers, but his team has been put to GOTV shame recently.

So, what's it going to be?  It's a tight race and calling it either way would stand a decent chance of being right.  But not only do I support Leslie, but I also feel that her final GOTV efforts will give her the slight advantage.

Tomorrow...  

Byrne: 43%  Connolly: 41%

Been on the ground since Thursday, with the big GoTV canvassing since Saturday. Great time for a heat wave (but I'm used to this Texas-summer-style heat)!

Everyone seems cautiously optimistic, and the campaign has done what seems to be a very good job id'ing Leslie supporters and targeting them for GoTV since the weekend. I even managed to talk a handful of people not on our lists to go out to the polls tomorrow for Leslie just from interactions in the neighborhood.

Up early tomorrow for one more day ... am thinking along the same lines as Eric in terms of how this plays out tomorrow night. Hope to meet some RKers at the party tomorrow night.  

I confess to having a big fear that the machine will turn out enough voters who have not been closely following the race, and that Connolly will win.

I also have a hope that the netroots and Byrne have been able to motivate enough irregular primary voters to make a fundamental change in the ground game in the 11th, and that Leslie will crush Connolly by 10-15%...

Then I realize that with no Republican primary, and open primaries in Virginia, many Republican ritual voters will turn out; discover at the polls that there is no Republican primary in the 11th, and vote Democratically just to vote every election.  I see them splitting between business types who respect Connolly (ouch, that eats into any lead Byrne would have) and people who simply want to throw the election (more votes than expected for write-in, Denneny and Alexander).

Turn out means everything today.  Praying/Chanting/Hoping/Dancing/Cheering for Leslie Byrne to win.

I especially like the dancing part, which is her own suggestion (grin).

I can't see Lori even coming close to 1% and I think Doug will be hard pressed to hit 10%.

Doug is at a major financial disadvantage of course. I didn't receive a single mailer from him. And apparently he has few supporters. I also didn't get a single call from him or supporter and no robo call. That last point makes me wonder if his campaign even used the call lists that Leslie and Gerry have been using, which also leads me to think because he is so new to campaigning neither he nor his campaign manager knows how to access the VAN for a call list.

Back to my subject line: If my estimates for Lori and Doug are close to accurate, That would mean Gerry and Leslie are competing for about 90% of the voters, which of course results in 46% Leslie and 44% Gerry if the 2% spread is correct. Or the reverse.

My bet on Leslie is based on a slightly better grassroots "Boots on the Ground" Byrne Brigade, with Jim Webb's "Brigades" name clinching the win. Or maybe she will follow Jim's 2006 example and win by less than 1%.

I'm not giving any odds on this bet. I'll only take two bets with the stakes limited to two beers for the two winners if I lose my bet.

BTW, I was the first voter at my Bull Run precinct in Gainesville. I'll be back at the poll soon to see how many voted on the way to work this morning.

                          T.C.

...but which way?

My thought is that LB has a more passionate following.  I have to think that the lower the turnout, the better it is for Byrne.

I also disagree with the 90% assessment above.  With rare exception-like a national emergency-any elected official at any time is going to have up to 20% of the voters unhappy with them about something.  I suggest that 80% is the threshold, and for Moran it may be 75% due to his well publicized out bursts that may leave a permanent bad impression with some voters.

80% would be a fine showing for Jim Moran.  Getting 90% of the vote is almost impossible in an election with more than one name on the ballot.

I'm going to go with..

Connolly - 49
Byrne - 42
Denneny - 7
Alexander - 2

I think Byrne has more enemies than one would think if you just read the blogs.  Could be ballot fatigue also, she has run for essentially every office in Virginia.

It sucks that it is between Byrne and Connolly... sigh.  

I was #33 at 8 am.

N/T

is the larger fight really going on in the 11th between the establishment and the netroots. I understand that at the end of the day it is a campaign between candidates, but as an observer from outside this particular arena, this has always been the key subtext to this race.

In that sense, it represents a larger transition occurring in the Democratic Party at the national level.

I was speaking with a political frind of mine -- not a netroots person, more old school -- about this in the 11th. He was quite surprised when I predicted a Byrne victory. He was aware of the hostility between the two campaigns, but was quite unaware of the amount of online organizing that has been going on outside of the common political structures within which he operates.

It was, and will be, very interesting.

It will be very, very interesting.

I am curious if the Connolly "brand" name is as pervasive as he and others seem to think it is.  I respect Gerry Connolly, don't get me wrong.  But I think when you put him up against a tried and true, tested, progressive like Leslie Byrne, Leslie is going to win among the typical Democratic primary voter.  I really think so....

We shall see....where is the Byrne party?  I want to attend....

Off of 50 and Gallows.

"If Leslie Byrne pulls off a victory, it will obviously be a huge upset to the establishment and a boost for the netroots" So a former Congresswoman who already ran for statewide office is the anti-establishment candidate? Get real