RK ARCHIVE - Update - Obama vs. McCain in the Electoral College

Obama looks pretty good right now based on state by state polls to beat John McCain. However, to assure a Democratic win, he'll need purple states to turn blue and keep a presence in the red states. It is hard to tell how much the candidacy of Bob Barr will affect this race. In 2004, the Libertarian Party was on the ballot in Georgia, Bob Barr's home state. They were also on the ballot in Nevada, another key swing state dominated by Libertarians. Whether Barr will face legal challenges to being on the ballot in those states, remains to be seen. However, if he is on the ballot in those states, he could take at least a couple percentage points away from McCain, and give Obama an advantage.

Obama vs. McCain
For Obama, safe states are: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington State, and Washington DC.
14 States + DC (~38% of U.S. population, 190 electoral votes)

For McCain, safe states are: Arizona, Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming.
17 States (~22% of U.S. population, 125 electoral votes)

States leaning for McCain are: Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina
7 States (~19% of U.S. population, 91 electoral votes)

Toss-up States are: Colorado, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Virginia
8 States (~14% of U.S. population, 84 electoral votes)

States leaning for Obama are: Iowa, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin
4 States (~7% of U.S. population, 48 electoral votes)

Obama: 238 with leaning states
McCain: 216 with leaning states
Toss-ups left: 84 electoral votes

More analysis below the flip
As for toss-up states, Obama looks stronger than McCain in all but Nevada and Virginia.
Even if he lost both of those, he can still easily win the election. Things can change rapidly in a campaign. Vice Presidential choices will almost certainly have some impact. However, at present, Obama looks like he is in better position than John McCain in the electoral vote count.
Obama has an ever better advantage in the popular vote, especially because recent polls show him much closer in red states than Democrats usually are. By reducing the number of large McCain victories, it is possible that Obama could win the popular vote by more than 5 points. It is also possible that Obama could win the popular vote and lose the electoral college. Of course, if we can bring Virginia home for Obama, Senator McCain can look forward to many more quiet days Barbequing for the media.

Comments

Bob Barr . . . (JPTERP - 6/8/2008 6:41:43 PM)

could have an impact in the mid-Atlantic states (Virginia and N.C.) -- Georgia could be a real interesting one too. If Barr gets high single digits in Georgia by poaching off McCain support that could make things real interesting in Georgia (who'd have thunk it 6 months ago?). Barr will probably pull in some of the disaffected Ron Paul support -- may even be able to pull in some social conservatives.

I'm curious to see the newest Texas numbers from Rasmussen which should be out later today. Looks like Obama's national numbers have received a big bump this past week -- his favorability numbers have seen a double-digit swing, which suggests that the party support is starting to come around (e.g. from 28 highly favorable/33 percent highly unfavorable two weeks ago to 36 percent highly favorable/25 percent highly unfavorable this weekend).

The race though is still very dynamic at this stage. External factors like the price of oil could have an impact -- e.g. if there is a substantial drop in the price for prolonged period before the election that might reduce some of the pressure on the incumbent party. On the other hand, if prices inch towards $5 that's going to have a nasty impact on the economy -- and I think a lot of folks are going to start looking at the GOP on that one. An attack against Iran too could be a factor. There are a lot of pluses going for Obama -- but the race is still very dynamic.

VP slot may tip the scales in some places (Alter of Freedom - 6/8/2008 7:04:50 PM)

While I think Romney could deliver Michigan not sure if he could help very much in MA. Crist would certainly deliver FL into Mccains camp and though no one is talking about a potential revival of the Contract of America and Newt Gingrich he could certainly play a factor in Georgia if he wants to even if not a VP selection. Gingrich is the best debator in the GOP if not all of politics and I never bet against History professors.
In the end though I would expect some sort of peace being drawn up with the Ron Paul camp. Mccain will need those voters, probably the only inspired and active in the GOP currently with real fundraising.
Its is still very early, but for the first time as it feels on the ground and based on 06/08 polling I think Virginia today would vote Obama in the area of 2 to 3% points and more if the Republican electorate fails to galvanize itself around McCain. This could also be very true of North Carolina as well, but the military influence may save him there.

NM and CO are not toss-ups (j_wyatt - 6/8/2008 9:40:22 PM)

Not sure who will be riding whose coat tails, but local Democrats are way out in front in state contests in New Mexico and Colorado. Obama is just icing on the cake.

Unless something horrible happens between now and November to majorly change the trend, these two states are not purple, but blue.

It's smart to be conservative ... (j_wyatt - 6/8/2008 10:16:02 PM)

not ideologically, but in assuming, at this point, that November will be a decisive Obama victory.

Winning the electoral college is a whole new ball game. The 50 state strategy sounds wonderful, and, if the resources are there, offense being the best defense, it's smart to attack in some deep red or leaning red states, but the winner-takes-all rule can make for some very nerveracking moments in the bigger states with electoral votes in the teens and on up.

As someone who lives in a deep blue state, if I had five minutes with David Axelrod, I'd advise him that it would be just fine with us if Senator Obama stopped in here only occasionally to pick up some money. He should go spend it in the battleground states with the electoral votes that will tip the election: Pennsylvania (21), Ohio (20), Michigan (17), Virginia (13) and Wisconsin (10). By my count, Obama must take three of those five. And that should also be taken into account when selecting the VP.

If the election were held today, it would be very, very tight:

I Think Obama Will Take... (BP - 6/9/2008 10:55:50 AM)

...all the blue States on your map, together with Michigan, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Missouri. I don't think Obama will choose a Virginian for V.P. but, even so, I think he'll win Virginia by a Webb-style, skin-of-his-teeth type margin.

Total popular vote: Obama 53%; McCain 45%.

Michigan and New Hampshire depend on other factors (Alter of Freedom - 6/9/2008 3:04:09 PM)

Your betting BP on something really changing. Romney will help McCain win Michigan and he will stress that the last two years the Congress has done nothing to help them and New Hampshire will be one of those places where Obama would have to committ resources to, I just am not seeing that really being a toss-up right now. They have always seem to embrace McCain up there even when other regions have not in years past. You must be betting on alot of theose Clinton folks coming into the Obama camp there b/c thats the only way it will happen. Alot of independents there IMHO as well. I think it more of a chance to focus on NC by Obama and take those 15 off the board and then Virginia's 13.

Sure (BP - 6/9/2008 3:29:30 PM)

You're right. Romney may be able to win Michigan for McCain and McCain may win New Hampshire.

However, what I believe will change over the next five months is that the electorate will come to know the real John McCain, as opposed to the mythical, moderate-maverick, straight-talkin' and reformin' John McCain. If they get to know him really well, Obama could win in a landslide.

In any event, my prediction is based on 50% semi-informed analysis and 50% men's intuition and I'm sticking to it. :)

The biggest issue I am seeing (Alter of Freedom - 6/9/2008 4:18:06 PM)

and it could be a positive or a negative depending upon perspective over the next five motnhs is people are not really "listening" to McCain---they feel they already know him and know what he stands for. I have had many independents tell me they do not even tune into to his speeches b/c they want to see what Obama is all about. McCain in my view has a base of folks people are ignoring but the base are those who have voted on the other side of the fence as well in the past so they can be swayed.
In short, people know McCain and feel fixed in the position but are open to "listening" to Obama and thats the opportunity. The know what he is all about but Obama is interesting. Bring on the debates and town halls they say.
Personally, I have said all along none of it matters until the debates start. The general electorate is different that the primary faithful so the show is about to start. Right now, the debate in the household has begun so I get to see both sides. Right now we cancel each others vote, but am learning that as much as Appalachia is getting the rap for not really wanting Obama, I am finding out that its not just that area---there is a bunch of New Yorkers in my extended family that will not support him either no matter what and also some in Baltimore that will not even discuss the matter openly. Fortunately, for Obama those States he has in the bag.

50-48 (Dan - 6/9/2008 11:33:54 PM)

Obama may win by a couple points. This should be a close election. Obama is African-American, and that will count against him a little, whether we like it or not. Hillary did a good job at exploiting his weaknesses. He definitely has some. This race will be close in the end. I think Obama will take it. However, the American populace is quite stupid at times, and give in to the Republican b.s. that the Democrats just can't lead. Plus, the Americans have a short memory of the good ol' days of Bill Clinton.