...I see little to be happy about, little that pleases my jaundiced eye. Yes, voter participation is way up and in the end, the Democrats will choose a woman or an African American and, to invoke that tiresome phrase, history will be made. But this messy nominating process has eroded the standing of both candidates. It has highlighted the reality that racism still runs deep and that misogyny, although more imagined than real, is not yet a wholly spent force. This is an ugly porridge that has been placed before us, turned rancid since the cold, pristine days of Iowa only five months ago. We were, with apologies to Bob Dylan, so much younger then.
Please use this as an open thread to discuss the primary season that began back in...I dunno, sometime last century I think. Also, please feel free to comment on what you think will happen next (e.g., will the Democrats come together or fall apart?), the latest superdelegate news, the Montana and South Dakota primaries, Bill Clinton's latest meltdown, etc. Thanks.
UPDATE: For what they're worth, here are some 5 pm exit poll #s.
Obama 55-39 in Montana
Clinton 54.7-45.3 in SD
I'm also not particularly a fan of his assertion that misogyny is "imagined." But that's a different kind of ignorance that we shall leave aside for the moment.
So, what do I think will happen next? I think it will take Hillary a couple of days to do the math, but by now there aren't really any "undecided" superdelegates left, they're all simply uncommitted, and nobody knows better than Hillary and Obama who the uncommitteds are pulling for. If Obama has enough superdelegates to seal the deal, she'll roll up the tent and call it a day. I expect this to be the case.
A couple weeks from now, the Republicans won't be able to help themselves and will start digging in on Obama, and the general election will begin in earnest. McCain will once again paint himself as a maverick by disagreeing with, well, himself. Democrats will run millions of dollars of ads asking which John McCain we're supposed to be voting for this week. He'll try and take credit for limited progress made in Iraq. We point out that McCain doesn't know anything about economics and ask why millions of consumers are taking second jobs and pawning their valuables so they can pay the rising costs of corn and gas if things are supposed to be going so great.
Then we knock doors.
Then we make phone calls.
Then we win.
Just sayin'....
Voter registration is up, and not just in late voting/caucusing states, but even in early states. I have four friends and co-workers who have recently become new citizens of the United States after processing through length legal immigration paperwork; and all four of them tell me that people helped them register to vote as soon as they became citizens (technically not part of the process, but volunteers were present from both parties in all four cases).
Americans have had a chance to learn far more about the inner workings of party elections, and some concerns have come up - but people are trying to address them now, rather than during the general election.
It is likely that Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee, a real voice for change. John McCain is as good a voice for change as the Republicans had this time around. I find it interesting that the majority of both parties wanted real change (though they differ on how much and what to change). There is even real interest in third party candidates this time, and I am very grateful for that; for as much as I have been working for Democratic candidates, I'd like to see the political scene in America open to several parties and for coalition governments to become the norm. Coalitions of environmentally focused, popular focused, and civics focused groups working together instead of an uninteresting bi-partisan split.
I am a little disappointed that more attention has not been paid to verified voting and transparent and open election processes in every state, for I fear that elections can and have been skewed by a few percentage points in some states, and that it will continue to happen until we nationalize the procedures.
I am enormously grateful that Huckabee and the puritanical theocrats did not make it to the finals in either party (as a non-Christian, they make me very nervous). I am hoping we can re-separate church and state, allow religious freedom for people of all faiths and philosophies and learn from each other by talking openly about our faiths and philosophies.
I am even more grateful that candidates from all parties are starting to talk about climate change and take the environment seriously. This is one issue that brings us all together on this small blue planet. We as a species could be in real trouble if we don't work together and solve some problems fast. I am convinced we can solve them, we just need to get started.
It's also given me a chance to blog again, reconnect with my community, and even learn a little spreadsheet technology as I tracked delegate counts from different news sources. 2008 has been a very good year so far.
2) instead of 4-6 toss-up/battleground/purple states like the last two elections, a face-off between McCain and Obama is likely to give us ~21 toss-up states!!! That is a huge difference and involves vastly more people, which is a good thing.
Check out Kos's excellent maps:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/6/3/1102/08063/782/527059
It will be very nice to see Virginia involved in the campaigns instead of ignored as very one sided.
Right now though, and this is not a slap at either candidate, but to say one is "inspired by the process" I could not disagree more. In fact, I after Saturday I think we have found that the leadership (given the leaders of the rules are same as credential) are in fact an elitist bunch of bueracratic powercrats.
Independent of whether one supports Obama or Clinton because that is not the issue in terms of the process, these people mocked the entire process and in my view mocked the very principles that underpin the Party.
To count delegates as half votes is absurd to me and should be to every American regardless of Party. Our Founding Fathers counted African-Amercians as 3/5 th in order to keep the representation of southern states artificially lower. Now the Democratic leadership has sought to lower it to even less than that for the purposes of representation favoring one side over the other.
Florida is a travesty. Michigan? Fact is people removed their names from ballots voluntarily and all those were inlcuded in the "uncommitted" slate so how do we discern anything from that? Half votes. Are you kidding me?
I may not like it and may want Obama to come out on top in the end regardless but it should be fair and just in terms of the voters will and not the leaderships will.
The arguement made by many that this would have never gone down the way it has if Obama was on the other side of that coin goes to prove just how unjust we truly are and how much the fear of the "racial" tag still echoes the halls of our Party regardless of how much we would like to think its only a Republican issue. You can bet had Obama needed these full votes for his bid, they certainly would have been granted and there in lies the injustice that the leadership has determined to follow.
I do not support Hillary, but would like those in a position to lead the Party to actually lead by example and mirror our core values and principles and not make it hope as they see fit simply because we need to get on with the General.
For Pete's sake.
Clinton supporters have stuck with their candidate, and that is to be admired--I admire it having been a Dean supporter even past the scream...
She fought for the people she believed she needed to fight for, and we ought to invite that spirit and that energy into the fold to make sure evil is triumphed by good in this election....sorry to cast it in such Reaganist light, but it seems to fit, doesn't it?
The Republicans love order and they love to follow orders. We all know where that eventually leads. Let's celebrate the fact that we can differ in our opinions and make our case without being thrown in jail (most of the time). Was it Winston Churchill who said Democracy is a very bad system, but its much better than all the rest?
In fact, I would love it if we had a question and answer session for the president like the British have for their prime minister. I just love all the yelling, but that's just me.
Racism, sexism, ageism have bubbled up from "whisper campaigns" into front and center issues and concerns. Clinton and Obama had to openly face these issues head on, and the Democrats will come out stronger as a result. No doubt the RNC "scare machine" will pour it on for November.
I watched some of the DNC By-laws/Rules Committee meeting on Saturday. Despite the arguments and tempers, I was impressed by the diversity of members seated at the table.
Diversity is the Democrat's strength.
Agree that the process is messy and flawed..but Mr. Rogers said it best: "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat! "
The Obama campaign is also organizing a Thursday-night rally in Northern Virginia. For the moment it has been billed as a typical event, but it could turn into a major spectacle featuring numerous party luminaries, depending on the events of the next few days.
Rally with Barack Obama
Nissan Pavilion
7800 Cellar Door Drive
Bristow, VA
Thursday, June 5th
Doors Open: 3:00 p.m.
Program Starts: 6:00 p.m.
You know, for years I'd always thought 'boy it would be really cool to have the kind of primary schedule some day where it went all the way to the last state and into the convention.' The idea of it seemed like a political junkie's dream.
I take it all back. This sucks. Lets never do this again. Iowa and New Hampshire, it's all yours as far as I'm concerned.
This has been the longest, stupidest primary campaign of any kind that I have ever witnessed. And even now, after having seen so many moments where we all said 'oh she HAS to drop out now,' I still don't quite believe that this is it today. I just don't believe that Clinton will ever be a good sport and leave the race and let us get on with the general election.
Maybe on Wednesday afternoon, she's going to start saying that Obama hasn't REALLY clinched the nomination, since he depends on super delegates who have the right to change their minds. And she'll take it all the way to a floor fight at the convention. I just don't believe that it's really over. I'm too shell-shocked.
Clinton says she's open to being Obama's VPWASHINGTON - Hillary Rodham Clinton has told congressional colleagues she would be open to becoming Barack Obama's vice presidential nominee, saying she would consider it if it would help Democrats win the White House. ...
Just imagine the intra-campaign fighting. Clinton's people constantly at odds with Obama's. Competing messages, themes, styles and ideas about how politics should be practiced. It would be a horrible mess.
Jim Webb is actually a year older than Hillary Clinton, but exudes new, fresh, young.
We want to, need to, turn the page. Whoops, speaking of old, let's rephrase that. We need to restart.
But if Clinton is interested in becoming the VP, I think Obama should extend that olive branch. It would unite an INCREDIBLY strong ticket and I do believe it would be invincible.
I also believe that Clinton still has the interests of this country at heart, and would make one hell of a replacement (or a Cheney-like VP who just rides it out) once Obama is done with his 8 years.....
I honestly think it could only make the party stronger and unite us in an amazing way...
Obama/Clark, Obama/Richardson, Obama/Webb - I think they all stand to win by 15-20% over McCain and anyone but Huckabee, McCain/Huckabee buys an additional 5-10% theocrat support from the nut-jobs.
Obama/Clinton corrupts the whole idea of Obama for change. Shows him to be part of the machine we are trying to change. He loses 25% of his support instantly, perhaps even more over time as the Republican smear machine attacks both Clintons. That combo would cost us the election that is pretty close to guaranteed without her.
By the way, Clinton/Clark or Clinton/Vilsack appeals to a totally different Democratic drive, and I think she'd win against McCain/anyone-but-Huckabee.
How disgruntled are the clinton supporters going to be??
When Hillary comes out and says (just hours ago) She'd be open for the VP slot, I think that's ClintonSpeak for, you better give me the VP slot or else.
I don't know. I really do not know. Does Obama really need her to carry the Clinton supporters or would it just drag him down?
This worrys me.
If McCain is to be beaten, ruthless electoral math trumps every other possible consideration.
If Clinton is not the VP, are her women supporters in the big electoral states really going to vote for McCain? It's all about Roe v Wade.
The election hinges on white males in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Whoever wins that demographic in three of those five states takes the presidency.
Jim Webb vs. Hillary Clinton as Obama's running mate? Who best will appeal to those key voters?
I don't think he was implying it was all about Roe for most Americans.
I am not sure - just a thought.
Despite their outrage at losing the Democratic nomination to Obama, feminist Clintonistas know that electing McCain would mean that Roe v Wade is toast. With that signature issue at stake, they are not going to vote for McCain or sit on their hands on election day.
It's conservative Democrats, independents and moderate Republicans who hold the key to this election.
From here on out, it's all about winning -- and that's winning within the rules and parameters of the electoral college game.
I can't believe the number of people who claim he has no policies... I point out his web site has them all for anyone to read. Amazing.
Get some rest; hope you feel better after a few days away from the news.
McCain 45% vs. Obama 45%
Each campaign had the great opportunity to sharpen their skills. And all this attention we got is attention that was deprived of the Republicans.
There may be a minority of Obama supporters and a minority of Clinton supporters who cannot build a bridge and get over it. But on the whole this has been for good.
I hope that he acknowledges the sacrifice of those in our armed forces and identifies the most recent Medal of Honor winner has being a great American. This will help him with the independents where the military issue is of great significance. I was saddened by the lack of coverage regarding the presentation of this medal to the serviceman parents, especially by those who claim to be so unbiased in the media. I hope Obama acknowledges leadership and sacrifice in a very distinct way...the way in which people live their lives and not simply from a politico reality.
I have never doubted Obama cares for the troops in the field, but tonight would be great start for him to recognize the sacrfice and bravery and also announce his intent to visit Iraq. Screw the idea that he would look inferior to McCain if he goes. If he wants to be President and be a real Commander-in-Chief he must. He needs tonight to put this thing to bed and raise the bar tonight.
If he does not he will simply be bundled in with those like Keith O. who fail to acknowledge a single positive accomplishment or act of bravery in an unbiased and American way. Forget the politics, that would be a great change result in supporting Obama we would hope, and acknowledge that the acts of people like Olbermann are shameful when the choice not to recognize a Medal of Honor winner because it was earned in a conflict or war that he fails to support.
Whether we support the War or not, the mena and women dererve the utmost respect and it is my hope that Obama takes a momment tonight to honor the sacrifices being made even if the policy under the current President is flawed. A veteran respectfully.
Maybe Obama will get stuck as well and send us transportation help after he becomes the next POTUS.
It's been a long fight. Now that it's over, I somehow find myself feeling symathetic towards Clinton. Do I like her? No. Do I want her as VP? Part of me thinks she's earned it, and it might be beneficial to party unity, but in the end i think Edwards, Webb, or Biden might be a better choice.
and encourage others to go listen
I won't link to it, because I refuse to traffic in this garbage, but if they are threatening a bomb shell video, that might be what Fox has.
I guess we'll see if it's the same BS soon.
They obviousy think that all Wright is the only chance
Le Sigh.
The only TV network listed is BBC. There is a reason for that. TV tends to thrill us... the 4th estate no longer includes the US television networks... they bailed out years ago and went for entertainment and infotainment.
MSNBC is a little better than Fox, but not much. Frankly DW (German) is better than both, though that is not saying much.
CBS clings to a vestige of it's former glory; but they've caved to thrills too - though at least they still scan the headlines
And while I often watch Mathews and Olbermann on MSNBC, I tire of Mathews' narcissism and talking over his guests, and Olbermann's polemics can be histrionic, though I understand that Keith is the sole token progressive island in a vast swamp of corporatist diversionary "prolefeed."
If one follows the Middle East at all, Juan Cole's Informed Comment is essential daily reading.
Juan Cole is consistently excellent and one of the best sources of military news on the Middle East. I really miss Steve Gilliard though.
Anybody familiar with it?