*Jeff Frederick: No longer the angry teenager yelling from time-out... now's he has real responsibility and we'll see if he uses it to strengthen and unify the GOP or further deepen the moderate/conservative divide.
*Jeff Frederick: No longer the angry teenager yelling from time-out... now's he has real responsibility and we'll see if he uses it to strengthen and unify the GOP or further deepen the moderate/conservative divide.
*Ken Cuccinelli: Bob Marshall came within only a handful of votes of defeating former Governor Jim Gilmore (who should have done very well at a convention)- Cuccinelli's activist profile is very similar and it now appears he is a shoo-in for a spot on the GOP ticket.
*Bob Marshall: Marshall probably won 55% of the total delegates present at the convention, but barely lost the weighted vote. While he lost, he certainly won't be shunned by mainstream Republicans as a joke anymore.
*Mark Warner: Warner finally gets to run the campaign he always wanted- a referendum his record as governor vs. Jim Gilmore's.
LOSERS BELOW THE FOLD.
LOSERS:
*Virginia Republicans: A convention was supposed to turn out scores of activists that would then unite behind one candidate (actually it was meant to guarantee a Gilmore win), but in the end I'm confident that half the room won't even be voting for Jim Gilmore as much as working to guarantee his election.
*Bob McDonnell and Bill Bolling: On Friday night, Bolling came within a hair of being defeated by no one to be the convention chair (he ended up winning by a hair) and then the McDonnell/Bolling unity pre-convention endorsement of Jim Gilmore proved to be meaningless.
*Jim Gilmore: Barely won a convention that he should have dominated after outspending Marshall 12-1 and will now go on as a deeply wounded GOP nominee in a contest that he needed everyone he could get!
*Republican Party of Virginia Staff: Frederick was kind enough to let them keep their jobs for 2 days, but he won on a platform of RPV incompetence so incumbent staffers are all probably updating their resumes.
The moderate arm of the RPV has certainly lost big time, they were not even permitted a primary to show the neo-con factions that they are numerous (not sure they are, but we'll never know).
The radical right wings (both theocrats and anti-tax club) are not really winners either; yes they shut out the moderates, but it will probably cost them several more general election races, and perhaps even the Virginia house in 2009. (though I admit that is a stretch). So winners at all is my assertion.
Frederick is not qualified to do the job of chair, and the party will figure that out in due time and reject him as well.
Marshall may have demonstrated that he can motivate a very radical faction of religious wing-nuts, but it will never be enough to win more offices, and they will continue to isolate themselves and struggle to keep even the offices they have.
Warner was going to win the general anyway, so I am not sure how this changes anything.
With low turnout, it is much easier for radical factions to get a higher percentage of the show-up vote. We are seeing the same thing in nearly every state's Republican primary since McCain became the only candidate able to win. He has been getting less and less of the vote because most reasonable people are staying home. The argument that showing up to the convention has no impact does not hold any water here - these were valid choices for the RPV, but does it really matter wether Gilmore or Marshall won?
Conventional wisdom is that Warner will stomp anyone nominated in the general election, so is it possible most rational, mainstream, moderate Republicans stayed home this time, leaving the convention to the Frederick and Marshall supporters?
I really have no idea on this, it's just an idea... but I am having trouble thinking that 55% of even Virginia's notoriously right wing Republican party is really behind a theocrat like Marshall. I am guessing it was 55% of attendees and that a sizable chunk of the party stayed out as they see this year's prospects as hopeless anyway.
I think Jim Gilmore and his "Let's Pretend It's 1999? -themed campaign is going to get clobbered this fall. He definitely will not have a lot of the people at today's Convention out working for him.