I just got back from a long evening, starting with a Chap Petersen fundraiser and ending with an 11th CD debate in Fairfax City. Chap's event was notable for its straw poll results:
Leslie Byrne 63% (38)
Doug Denneny 18% (12)
Gerry Connolly 16% (10)
Other 2% (2)
I wasn't surprised that Leslie won the straw poll in a crowd of Chap supporters, but I was a bit surprised at the margin and also that Connolly finished third, behind Doug Denneny. Of course, Doug and Leslie attended Chap's event and spoke. As Chap points out, "The personal touch always makes the difference."
With regard to the 11th CD debate, I thought it was well organized overall and also very well attended. I didn't think any candidate particularly won or lost the debate, and I didn't take extensive notes because Eric was videotaping. A few things jumped out at me, though, with regard to Gerry Connolly's comments:
*He seemed to imply, once again, that he had always opposed the Iraq war. Again, where's the evidence of that?
*He argued once again that he was the most electable Democrat, even though the 11th CD is probably a 90%+ probability Democratic pickup this year no matter who gets the nomination, and even though Leslie won the 11th CD in 2005.
*Connolly and Denneny got into a fairly heated exchange over whether the Biden plan for Iraq was appropriate or not (Connolly likes it, Denneny hates it). I was a bit surprised how intense that one got.
*Finally, Connolly made a confusing comment about how replacing Saddam Husssein led to "another theocratic Shi'a regime" in Iraq. Huh? First of all, Saddam Hussein was a secular Ba'athist of Sunni origins, NOT a theocratic Shi'a. Second, I've never really hard anyone argue that the current regime in Iraq is "theocratic Shi'a." In fact, the current president of Iraq is a Sunni Kurd named Jalal Talabani. The current prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, has cracked down on militias led by (arguably) theocratic Shi'a Moqtada al-Sadr.
P.S. Also, LG candidate Jon Bowerbank spoke to the crowd at Chap's event for a few minutes and was well received.
We held the 11th CD Democratic straw poll. The results are unscientific as less than half the people voted (voter apathy can even extend to straw polls). The others were more interested in Buffalo Wings or dollar beers -- or aren't voting on June 10th in the Dem primary.
And Chap said there were people there who aren't voting in the Democratic primary - were there Republicans there? OMG!
And based on all the pictures, you would have thought this was a rally for John Bowerbank!
This link will also be a "Button" which will also be on the 11th CD website and the FCDC website at http://fairfaxdemocrats.org/....
Since the show is only an hour long and with 4 candidates it will limit the amount audience questions that can be taken, but questions can be submitted by email to JimS@NoVa.org (anytime in advance of the end of the show) or by voice telephone to 571-749-1166 (during the show).
Several MSM outlets like the Washington Post will be there covering the debate as well. At the completion the show the video will be processed and posted on Google overnight and I'll make sure the URL gets out to all the normal blogs and websites you would expect to find it on.....
Last week's 10th CD debate with Judy Feder and Mike Turner at the Loudoun NVCC campus is already up there on Google now at URL:
Debate_10th_CD_05-22-2008_NVCC_Loudoun.mpg
http://video.google.com/videop...
* Doug Denneny also gets an improved award. He's been fairly solid but this time he showed greater depth outside the Iraq war issue and, most importantly, it was not All-About-Doug. Previously there was far too much "why I'm great" talk whereas this time we saw much more "what I'm going to do for you". If Doug decides to stay in this game I think we could easily be seeing him win elections sometime in the future. But not this time. He'll handily beat Lori but still finish a distant third to the two contenders.
* Total Idiot award goes to that woman in the red who decided she was so important that she had the right to jump into the debate with the candidates. Earth to Moron in Red: Just about everyone in that room has strong feelings on many of these issues and would've loved to argue back - but no one did because they all had the respect and maturity to keep their mouths shut. Next time - STFU.
* Our two front runners, Leslie and Gerry, both gave solid performances but neither scored a significant blow against the other. Leslie focused on her extensive record in many areas and Gerry focused on a) How great Fairfax County is (he can take some credit but he is far from a singular driving force that turned Fairfax into what it is) b) that this election is all about Bush (nice way to distract everyone) and c) he is the electable one (Total BS - even Lori would stand a chance of winning in November).
That said, I agree the debate was well done and showed good points from all the candidates. Doug has really improved and has become a compelling candidate (plus he has the hottest staff, sorry James). Leslie was vintage Leslie, though I thought just a tad off her game. Lori actually made some clear, good points and provided some much needed humor to the process. Especially her back and forth with the Red Lady.
To me the highlight of the night was the exchange over Prince William County and illegals. I think Gerry won that one based on the crowd response and showed he will be able to stand up to the Republican lie machine in the fall campaign. Like it or not, Gerry is just on a different, professional level as a politician and will be very effective in Congress. I was glad to see him defend public service and government workers as a point of pride in this country.
Eric, to suggest that he has not set the agenda and driven the results on the BOS these past 5 years shows a lack of appreciation about how the county or any government operates.
Lowell, just a thought. Were you in a bad mood last night or is that your normal out of the blog world face?? ;-) As they used to say at the DC Eagle back in the day..."So Severe!"
The main thing I've noticed since Connolly was elected to the Board of Supervisors 12 years ago is the crippling increase in traffic and decrease in quality of life.
As far as I'm concerned, Connolly is practicing politics-as-usual in trying to take credit for everything and blame for nothing.
http://www.swingstateproject.c...
Scroll down to the bottom of that. Gerry has still outraised her total but she has held her own lately and will have more to spend in the final days. This race is really going down to the wire.