Eight years after the dead tie of 2000.
Eight years of the worst president in history. Eight years of one debacle after another.
War, disaster, recession.
And this is how the electorate is netting out: 45% say they're going to vote for McSame and 44% are voting for Barack "Change" Obama.
What exactly is going to alter this in the next 5 months?
http://www.pollster.com/08-US-...
June 3, 2008, update:
The poll of polls now show the race as a dead tie. Eight years of Bush and it's a tie.
Wisconsin: McCain 45% vs. Obama 45%
Virginia: McCain 46% vs. Obama 45%
Pennsylvania: McCain 41% vs. Obama 46%
Ohio: McCain 43% vs. Obama 44%
Missouri: McCain 49% vs. Obama 42%
Michigan: McCain 43% vs. Obama 39%
Florida: McCain 47% vs. Obama 41%
The general election is all about winner-take-all electoral votes and it's likely to be won -- or lost -- in a few key states. This election cycle it appears to be: Wisconsin, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan.
Unless something changes drastically, McCain will easily take Florida and Missouri.
Go to one of those interactive '08 election maps. Obama has to win Wisconsin and Virginia and take one of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan or he cannot win. It's straight up math.
Folks in this country are, by now, very familiar with Senator Obama. And, after eight years of Bush-Cheney, that the match-up between Obama and McCain is in a dead heat nationally and either tied or with Obama behind in the key swing states is not good, not good at all.
Reverend Wright may have done irreparable damage.
Senator Obama either needs to come up with a game changing antidote to the scary Muslim black man extreme liberal no experience thing or take the stump speech change platitudes to a higher level. Or both.
But it's whistling past the graveyard to think that just moving from primary to general election is enough to change the dynamics of this race.
The fear people fear Obama. It's that simple.
Obama has been dealing with assaults from all sides, what with the Clinton attack ads AND McCain's sniping. In a couple of weeks we'll see the focus go purely to Obama versus McCain and Obama will no longer be dealing with the distraction of covering his flank. With any luck Hillary will stay true to her word to campaign aggressively for Obama and to encourage her supporters to unite with the Obama supporters against the Republicans. Hillary knows if she hopes to retain any real clout within the Democratic party she will have to close ranks around the nominee or be forever marginalized by an irritated constituency. Hillary has a huge chance here to show that she really is about uniting the party and winning the Presidency for the Dems and I think she's likely to take it. Better to have her skill and strength behind Obama's candidacy than against it.
Let's see what the polls say around the middle of July.
Furthermore, Obama has spent the past several months rolling up his sleeves and furiously courting working-class votes. It doesn't seem to be working. Ron Brownstein of the National Journal calculates that Obama did no better among those voters in a late state like Pennsylvania than he did for 26 out of 29 earlier primary states where he lost the working class....
Peter Hart did a focus group for the Annenberg Public Policy Center with independent voters in Virginia that captured reactions you hear all the time. These independent voters were intrigued by Obama's "change" message, but they knew almost nothing about him except that he used to go to the Rev. Jeremiah Wright's church. ...