I posted the same thing about an hour ago!

sigh.  

Thanks.

Over at WaPo there's a great interactive electoral map that shows how constrained McW's electoral options are for winning the general. He's got to win states like Ohio, Florida and Virginia to stand a chance. As McW's problems with Lobbygate are reflected in public opinion, his numbers are likely to get even worse (before they get better, if they ever). And more potential battleground states like Virginia, (I'm thinking Nevada, Texas, Missouri, New Mexico, Iowa, N.C.) will come into play. Then McW's going to be in deep kim-she. You realize that if the perfect storm holds, if Obama's grass roots organization is effective, McW will be left winning states only in the South and West.  

...it would be great for Obama to get him in his corner. I can not claim this one, but I can see Colin endorsing a democrat this time.

The local news and radio down here has been reporting a Virginia Commonwealth University statewide poll that is quite different with results than SurveyUSA.
Does anyone know what the specifics were on these polls and concentrations or areas of the State that may have been covered.
Since the two polls basically have the two flipped it begs the question if NVA was morely focused in Survey/USA and maybe VCU stuck mostly to Central and Western portions. Just thoughts. It is quite weird that the polling % would basically be the same but have them flipped for the same polling period.

I've heard of the VCU one, and given that it has like what - 20% undecided? - that kindof discredits it for me.

NLS has the crosstabs for the SurveyUSA poll - 27% of the results came from NoVA, so it's rightly represented.  Meanwhile Tidewater, which goes 53-34 for Obama is underrepresented at 17% and the Hills, which go 64-28 for McCain are WAY overrepresented at 29%.

If anything this poll geography slightly favors McCain, but overall it seems pretty solid to me.

Turnouts rates for the Virginia Primary based on both Dem and Rep and you look at the votes cast say for Hillary and Huckabee (the losers in the Primary) and just go with the winners Obama/McCain based on % the polling demographic certainly favored Obama.
Thats is probably not so telling given Obama;s vote count and turnout in the Primary, though McCain did do well in down in Norfolk given the hotbed of the Robertson crowd down there supporting Huckabee. Those folks may or may not support McCain in the general, but I just do not see them voting Obama.

then great news.

Adding a total unknown (Sebelius) obviously polls worse beacuse people don't have opinions of her. But the fact that a Obama/Sebelius ticket still ties a ticket of two well known Republicans is pretty amazing.

I know we shouldn't trust the polls but I'm starting to think that Edwards would the best pick. He brings Webb's populist appeal but is a better speaker, more vetted and more progressive on a lot of stuff. Webb's great but for example his position on immigration would hurt Obama among Latinos who will be another very important voting block.

 

I think that far too few voters in far too many states actually know what Obama and his campaign are all about.  The more exposure he gets, the better, but that means we can't afford an unknown VP choice... need to have a big name up there with him.

Webb, Edwards, Clark, Richardson are all pretty well known.

the big take away from several of the SurveyUSA polls is that Edwards is providing Obama with anywhere from a 4 to 7 point boost.  I don't know if those numbers will hold, but based on the numbers Edwards is the one that I'm thinking we may need.  I'd definitely be curious to see how Webb stacks up too.

Getting a 4 to 7 point boost across the board is huge --  it starts moving this election from a close one to a landslide in favor of the Dems.

Edwards. If Webb's not on the ticket, Edwards would be an excellent choice!