This, of course, would be a major mistake since Gerry is far from the best option - Leslie Byrne is a far better choice to represent the 11th. And she has experience (with it seniority) in that very job. See Lowell's Top 10 Reasons to Vote for Leslie if you need a refresher.
As for Connolly, obviously the Governor needs a good bit of refreshing. See here, here, here, here, here, here, and here for the tip of iceberg on why NOT to endorse Connolly.
And if that's not enough, NLS has over 60 reasons why Gerry sucks.
Anyway, if this is true, it's very disturbing news. Whether it's bad judgment on Kaine's part or merely a political payback, it's doing the people of the 11th a disservice by endorsing the wrong candidate.
UPDATE Wednesday morning: Kaine actually endorsed Gerry Connolly for Congress. We should all now work harder than ever for Leslie Byrne to counterbalance this travesty.
But here's the key: Tim Kaine wouldn't get involved unless he was certain that he is needed to secure the nomination for Gerry. Kaine, as a party leader, would not step in unless he thought it was necessary.
He did write about the physical and moral dilemma posed by women being in close combat (as in Infantry). That was titled "Women Can't Fight" .... appearing in the Washingtonian Magazine circa 1978.
Leslie's support was important to Webb early on in his campaign, no question. Throughout the campaign she was a very visible and helpful local (NOVA) political figure.
Jim Webb's endorsement is as much about loyalty, appreciation or more .... then political calculations of any kind. He simply thinks Leslie is the best candidate and I couldn't agree more.
Connolly is a pure machine party guy who has calculated his next big career move. Unfortunate but true. I'd throw my support to Leslie because she supported Jim Webb against the odds and at the expense of any political calculation she could have been making.
As important as NOVA to electing Democrats in Virginia and nationally, Tim Kaine shouldn't be ignoring the prevailing sentiment at RAISING KAINE.
As for RK and firefighters, perhaps you should ask Bruce Roemmelt how we feel about those brave men and women who risk their lives to keep everyone safe.
And to answer your question "Why wouldn't Kaine want to endorse the best candidate in the 11th District?" - you got me. I have no clue why he's picking Connolly instead of the best candidate.
As an outsider to this race, I think Byrne should simply focus on one thing and thats her vote against NAFTA in Congress. She stood up against her own Party and President I think against it and guess what....she was right. That is judgement friends. makes no matter to me what Party she is in....that takes b**** figuretively anyway.
"She was a drag on the Kaine ticket..." That's lie #3.
Care to go for #4? #5? etc?
So, the governor endorses Connolly. Leslie has Webb. Big deal. Focus on the issues not the personalities endorsing. Endorsements only ever ensure one vote -- that of the endorsee.
And BTW, Gerry is not a gigantic mistake. If he wins the primary, then he wins the seat and we have a Dem in Congress. Dems should support Dems when the time comes to do so. You'd rather have a lousy R in the seat?
He will be an embarrassment to the Democratic Party. Are you glad that William Jefferson (D-LA) is representing the Democratic Party in Congress? Connolly has a brash "I take money from corporate interests and I'm proud of it" attitude. If elected, he will some day rival Jefferson as an embarrassment to our party.
If you want a D in there regardless of who it is, vote for whoever it is. I tend to vote for D's, but if I have a problem with them or a reason I believe it would be strategically better to have an R in the seat, I'll vote for the R.
I will note, as a past example, that while it pained me to vote for a certain state senate candidate last year, I felt the extra push was necessary to gain democratic control (rather than abstain from voting in that race). This is not the case in VA-11 this year, and I'd be happy to wait 2 more years and fight for someone I support in that seat.
It's a moot point anyway because Democrats aren't going to abstain from voting for the nominee. Look at the polling a few posts up. Both candidates are viewed very favorably by the same survey sample of likely primary voters. No matter who walks away from the nomination, Democrats are going to feel perfectly happy voting for the Dem, regardless of how many ways Ben Tribbett finds to say Gerry Connolly sucks (or, for that matter, how many times Robespierre's Ghost or gmu prof says Leslie Byrne's not a winner).
So I'd suggest scaling back the negativity about either candidate. Better yet, quit blogging over Memorial Day weekend and go help your prefered candidate ID voters.
You don't know how he has abused his constituents when they don't agree with him.
You don't know how he has misused the bully pulpit granted to him by virtue of his position as chair.
You don't know how closely he is aligned with Republicans like Tom Davis.
Connolly will eventually be an embarrassment to the Democratic Party. He should not win the nomination.
I'm convinced that if "likely primary voters", or any voters for that matter, knew what a vindictive, in-the-pocket-of-developers bully Connolly is, they wouldn't vote for him for dog catcher.
I'm not comparing the A or B section to see who wins because this leads to the falacious conclusion that people voting for Leslie are voting against Gerry. Rather, I'm looking at the favorable unfavorables in the poll that don't pit candidates against each other. Among the most likely primary voters, 64% responded favorable to Leslie. 62% responded favorably towards Gerry. In the same sample. That means that even if you push both candidates to the fringes and assume that as many voters as possible only feel favorably towards one candidate or the other, somewhere around 20-25% respondents like both Leslie and Gerry. That's the bare minimum of overlap; it's probably much higher. But even if we do assume it's only 25%, that's still pretty high--Gerry's unfavorables in the same group is only about 20%.
So how do you break down the statistics on that? If we assume that every anti-Gerry respondent was pro Leslie, then of the 64% who like Leslie Byrne, less than a third dislike Gerry. At least one third of people who like Byrne also like Gerry. And the remainder (less than a third) don't have a positive or negative impression of him. And this works both ways, incidentally. The overwhelming bulk of people who are pro-Gerry are also either pro-Leslie or don't have a positive or negative impression of her.
Conclusion: this primary is not nearly as polarizing in the real world as it is on the blogs. The blogs are out of touch with how the public at large is going to be voting on Gerry v. Leslie.
2. Kaine & Connolly are in agreement about the tunnel. For some reason, Kaine is very angry about this whole tunnel thing. This slap at Leslie is for her position on the tunnel.
3. I bet that Kaine's people are convinced that Leslie's not a team player and won't work well with Frank Wolf or others.
There's several layers to this, but that's what's going on.
Here's what this is:
The pragmatic/moderate/poll-based/"results" wing of the Party v. the Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party.
If you believe in estate tax cuts, working with the Chamber of Commerce, and governing by polls, Kaine & Connolly are your boys.
We'll do our part in the 10th and replace Frank "Bush's lapdog" Wolf.
Kaine took advantage of Leslie Byrne's true progressive Democratic credentials to help him win in 2005. His campaign failed the party on both the left (Byrne) and right (Deeds) . For him to endorse Connolly would be further proof he's only interested in himself and not in building the Democratic party in Virginia.
Perhaps it is time for Raising Kaine to change it's name to something like Raising Democrats.
Is a change in the site URL to www.rk.com in the near future?
If it's Connelly, count me out. And I won't donate to him either. He's not right (though he is "right" in another sense) for the party, his district, or Virginians in general.
I hope Tim doesn't do this. If he does, I'd have to think about further implications. But with respect to his future aspirations, if any, my confidence in Tim would be shaken.
However, Kaine supporting Connolly would be sad if true, sad enough that I'd have to consider support for some other candidate than Kaine.
Am I fickle? No, I am true to my own self.
I'm with Kathy and tx2vadem -- this makes me drastically re-think my opinion of the governor, on top of the Dominion power plant lack of leadership and the rail to Dulles non-leadership.
Heading into '09, I am going to be keeping my eyes and ears wide open and want to hear EXACTLY what Creigh and Brian have to say about energy, transportation, and funding these priorities before I commit -- and then I want to hear how they're going to be held true to their words.
I think I read a very interesting comment from you on the blog a bit ago, we disagreed I think - but you have good points. Thank you for commenting if that was you.
I'm not sure I'm going to believe Kaine endorsing anyone unless I see it with my own eyes. In all the Democratic primaries that took place during 2007, Kaine only endorsed two candidates, which would make this endorsement highly unusual. Both of them, incidentally, won by wide enough margins that I have to disagree with Dan that Kaine only would endorse if he thought Gerry couldn't win without the endorsment. Kaine's endorsed primary competitors would have won with or without his endorsement.
Finally I want to say this to everyone who is knee-jerking towards hating Kaine or calling him a "DLC type." Please get real. Kaine was the first Governor in America to endorse in the Presidential primary and he endorsed Obama. He delivered the Commonwealth for Obama through his own political organization. Raking him over the coals because he might make an endorsement you don't like when he was the most vocal and active supporter of the presidential candidate you support is beyond fickle.
Just ponder that for a moment...
Ponder that.
So we are all glad you didn't type up a longer response.
As has already been pointed out....Kaine endorsed Lieberman for president in 2004.
That's right, just think about that, Kaine endorsed Lieberman over Edwards, Kerry, Dean, Clark....hello? You get the point?
He's been a complete disappointment to progressives who helped him get where he is today....it's a complete slap in the face.
Now, in a future primary, say for Senate or another statewide office, I certainly will be voting for a progressive who is squaring off against Kaine!
You know on being Governor, I am probably being too hard on him. But I really am disappointed that every time Dominion wants something Democrats roll over and play dead. And that every solution has to include taxes that affect the fewest because no one will notice or complain. And I am super happy that Abusive Driver Fees that are the ultimate representation of that theory of revenue collection blew up in their faces.
Kaine Endorses Connolly for Congress
Fairfax Supervisor Called a 'Standout'
By Amy Gardner
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, May 21, 2008; B08
Gov. Timothy M. Kaine has endorsed Democratic congressional candidate Gerald E. Connolly in Northern Virginia's 11th District, an increasingly blue-leaning territory where Democrats are betting heavily on gaining a seat now that Republican Rep. Tom Davis is retiring.
In a statement released yesterday, Kaine said that Connolly, who is chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, is the strongest candidate among the four competing in the June 10 primary. Kaine said Connolly has been a "partner" on a range of issues, including strengthening the economy, toughening environmental standards, fully funding schools and fighting for a Metrorail extension to Dulles International Airport.
"As a former elected local official, I appreciate Gerry's practical approach to problem-solving," said Kaine, a former mayor of Richmond.
Support from a popular sitting governor is seen as an advantage for Connolly against former representative Leslie L. Byrne, former Navy pilot Douglas J. Denneny and physical therapist Lori P. Alexander. Such an endorsement, although not unprecedented in a primary, also speaks to Kaine's assertive style as a party leader who is willing to take sides in Democratic contests. Kaine endorsed U.S. Sen. Barack Obama for president more than a year ago.
"Gerry brings passion and integrity to public service and a deep sense of commitment to all he undertakes," Kaine said in the statement. "I believe that this race has attracted four worthy and capable candidates, but for me, Gerry Connolly is the standout. He will serve the 11th Congressional District with honor and distinction. I fully endorse and will actively work for his election, and I encourage voters in the 11th Congressional District to do the same."
Connolly and Byrne lead the primary field in name recognition, contributions and endorsements, but Connolly holds an advantage in those categories over Byrne. Byrne has received endorsements from a long list of progressive organizations, including Emily's List, the National Organization for Women and more than a dozen union groups. Byrne also has the support of seven state lawmakers. And she has the backing of U.S. Sen. James Webb, whom Byrne supported long before many other Democrats did when he first ran for office two years ago.
Connolly has the support of several unions, too. He has also been endorsed by a dozen state lawmakers, including several senators who worked alongside Byrne when she served in the Virginia Senate several years ago.
"I don't dislike Leslie," said Senate Majority Leader Richard L. Saslaw (D-Fairfax), adding that he committed to Connolly when Byrne was still running for lieutenant governor three years ago. "I've worked with people who are a lot harder to work with. But Gerry's never lost an election, and there may be an apprehension there. Leslie had a congressional office and didn't hold it. I think some people don't want to gamble again. The loss to [Lt. Gov.] Bill Bolling probably didn't help."
Kaine has a history with Byrne, too: She was his running mate when he ran for governor in 2005. But his "pragmatic" approach to running government and building consensus is more aligned with Connolly, both said.
"I'm very honored," Connolly said. "The governor and I have been comrades in arms in a lot of battles in the General Assembly. It's a common-sense, results-oriented coalition that we've always put together."
Byrne was not available for comment yesterday, but her campaign manager, Joe Fox, said in a statement: "There's one statewide officeholder who understands what the war in Iraq is costing us in lives lost and dollars spent, and that's Sen. Jim Webb, and Leslie is proud to have his support. Leslie Byrne looks forward to a unified Democratic effort to help reclaim this seat in November."
Denneny dismissed news of Kaine's endorsement. "The only endorsement that matters is the one from voters on June 10," he said.
In Connolly's own polls...he doesn't even have 50% of the vote and he just ran for Supervisor last year. His support is weak, weak, weak.
It's not a question of R vs D, it's a question of which D would be better representing us in Congress.
At least there is real competition this time.
As far as Gov. Kaine is concerned, we here at RK have disagreed with him vehemently on a long list of issues -- Dominion Power reregulation, Metro to Dulles, the Wise County plant, abuser fees, the estate tax repeal, the transportation "monstrosity," stem cell research, offshore drilling, his endorsement of Linda Smyth, his endorsement of Gerry Connolly -- but we have overwhelmingly restrained ourselves from attacking him. To the contrary, we have supported 99% of Democrats (including raising thousands of dollars, working our butts off, etc.), with the exceptions of people like "Benedict" Lambert (who endorsed George Allen) and corporat-o-crat Gerry Connolly. Yet that makes us "Dumping on Democrats." OK. Even today, as unhappy as we are, all we've done is take down the "Raising Kaine" banner in protest and have posted nothing else. What do we get in response from you? Attacks, including accusations that I'm lying. So, you'd prefer that we just fall into line with Democrats no matter what we do? Of course, then we'd be accused of being hacks, etc.
As the saying goes, we "can't win for losing" with people like you.
Jim Webb is a __________
Mark Warner is a _________
Leslie Byrne is a _________
Ok, I'm bored already and your assertion is about as idiotic as they come.
Yeah, beside Connolly there are a few other Democrats we've had not-so-nice things to say about during the past three and half years. But as Lowell points out, those politicians are NOT STANDING UP FOR THE VALUES WE BELIEVE IN.
So let's try another one to help you understand this concept...
When Tim Kaine stands side by side with House Republicans vowing support of the Abuser Fees, Kaine is acting like a _______. Hint: If you fill in the correct answer all this will make sense.
You told me you would deliver land use reform, but you caved to the developers instead. You could have been our first environmental governor, but you caved to Dominion instead. You could have vetoed the transportation compromise last year and made the Republicans eat that disaster, but you caved instead. You could have been a real force for progressive values in Virginia, but you repealed the estate tax, made compromises with the Republicans on 2 budgets and have nothing to show for a legacy regarding the environment or education.
Since 2005, it's been enough for progressives that Tim Kaine was not Jerry Kilgore. We sucked it up through the estate tax capitulation, transportation monstrosities, and the environmental degradation of the commonwealth.
Now we're getting slapped in the face with this endorsement.
There's only so much you can suck it up. We don't just need MORE Democrats, we need BETTER Democrats. Tim Kaine simply doesn't understand.
First of all, how quickly we forget all that Tim Kaine has done for Barack Obama. We jump and call him a DLC Democrat, and I know Ben is now referring to him as "Governor Bloody Hands." But Kaine was the first Governor, and one of the first elected officials to endorse the only candidate for President who was against the War from the start. Do I disagree with Governor Kaine's endorsement? Absolutely. But I think no less of him because of it, and admit that I can disagree with his preference in the 11th without deciding he's now a traitor.
Second, Democrats cannot allow ourselves to be divided in the fall. I support Leslie, and have given money to her. And I still hope she'll be the nominee. But if Gerry is the nominee in the fall, i'll support him. Is he perfect? No. But I'm gonna support the Democratic Nominee.
I say stay the hell out of the race. Let the candidates campaign and win on their own accord.
Show them what grassroots can do instead of corporate roots.
At the Fairfax JJ Dinner, voters made their voices heard and voted for Connolly in the straw poll because they knew he represented a winner. Across Fairfax, his name is symbolic with change in politics. I hate how Democrats have sucked up to him to win because they know he can and now are dumping him in the water.
GO TIM KAINE! He realizes that Leslie is not a winner and Gerry is. I'm assured that Gerry will win by at least 10 points on primary day. There was a poll back in March by Lee Research Group that had him with a commanding lead.
CONNOLLY FOR CONGRESS!
We need a fighter representing us in Congress, someone who is not afraid to take on a tough fight. That candidate is Leslie Byrne.
Since her record is so good, I am willing to giver her another chance.
The funny thing is that the 11th, even after redistricting, has trended more Democratic over the years... partially due to more and more educated liberal voters moving into the district, partially because the Republican party has done such a crappy job while in power.
It is Democratic leaning enough that Davis will not run again.
It is Democratic leaning enough that four candidates are in the race as Democrats because the smart money says the winner of the June 10th primary is likely the winner of the general in November.
So this claim that Byrne is not a winner is pure Bullfeathers. If you like Connolly, by all means, vote for him and tell us why you like him. But please drop the tired old saw that Byrne can't win, she clearly can and has won over and over again.