Below is an overview of some key seats of contention in 2008. The Democrats have 30 seats that may be vulnerable (including the three seats they picked up in 2008), with 16 seats that are clearly vulnerable, while the Republicans appear to have 41 seats that may be vulnerable, with 26 that are clearly vulnerable. Among the 26 that are clearly vulnerable is Virginia's 11th District. Virginia's 2nd District and Virginia's 10th District are slightly vulnerable for the Republicans at this point. Virginia's 5th District is a race to watch. There are no vulnerable Virginia Democratic Congressman.
Below the flip is a list of key races in 2008.
Highly Vulnerable Republicans (12)
Illinois 11 (Open Seat) - Weller managed a 10 point victory in 2006, but his retirement opens up this key swing district big time for the Democrats. Debbie Halvorson, the Majority Leader of the Illinois State Senate will be the Democrat favored to win.
Michigan 07 (Walberg) - As a freshman Republican already having trouble with the press in his district, Walberg is now far more vulnerable than when he ran the first time. He faces a much stronger and well-financed Democratic challenger in 2008 in State Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer.
Nevada 03 (Porter) - Every two years this Southern Nevada district seems to have more Democrats move into town. Porter barely won last time, and has to convince a new round of voters that he is their best representative. Now he faces 2006 Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Dana Titus.
New Jersey 03 (Open Seat) - While not the closest race in 2006, this remains a Democratic-leaning district. Saxton's retirement provides a great opportunity for Democrat pick up by Democratic candidate, State Senator John Adler.
New Jersey 07 (Open Seat) - Republican Rep. Mike Ferguson barely won re-election in 2006, and with his retirement, this seat is wide open for the Democrats to take it over. The Democrat is 2006 challenger, State Assemblywoman Linda Stender.
New Mexico 01 (Open Seat) - With Heather Wilson running for Senate after a slim victory to keep this seat in GOP hands in 2006, the Democrats now have an even better shot at taking this swing district. The June primaries are crowded on both sides.
New York 13 (Fossella) - With a DUI and other issues plaguing him, the only Republican serving a New York City district is likely to retire. Fossella was likely a strong candidate for re-election if he didn't slip, but that is no longer the case. The Democrats mounted a decent challenge in 2006, and are well positioned to take this seat, which has a strong margin of Democratic registration, despite going big for Bush in 2004.
New York 25 (Open Seat) - This was a tight race in 2006 in this Democratic-leaning district, and with Walsh retiring and the Republicans unable to put up a strong candidate as Walsh's successor, it is likely that 2006 challenger Dan Maffei will be a strong favorite in this district covering Syracuse.
New York 26 (Open Seat) - Reynolds retirement offers a strong pick-up opportunity for the Democrats, who posed a strong challenge in 2006. Republican State Senator George Maziarz appeared to be a strong candidate to keep this seat in GOP hands, but he decided not to run.
Ohio 15 (Open Seat) - Deborah Pryce eked out a 1,000 vote victory in 2006 in this district covering Columbus and its eastern suburbs. Her retirement leaves the GOP in hot water to defend this seat with Republican State Senator Steve Stivers facing Pryce's 2006 challenger, Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy.
Ohio 16 (Open Seat) - Due to the retirement of Ralph Regula, this seat will be an open race for the first time in over three decades. Early signs indicate that this race is a strong pick-up opportunity for the Democrats. State Senator and Air Force Reserve Major John Boccieri will be the Democrat facing Republican State Senator Kirk Schuring.
Virginia 11 (Open Seat) - Tom Davis' retirement opens the door for the Democratic takeover many have been waiting for in Fairfax and throughout the DC suburbs that make up Virginia's 11th district. Tim Kaine won big here in 2005 in the Governor's race, and Jim Webb won big here in the Senate race in 2006. The Democrats will have a high profile candidate in either Leslie Byrne or Gerry Connolly, who will face off in a June 10th primary. The Republicans do not appear to have a strong candidate at this point.
Vulnerable Republicans (14)
Alaska at large (Young) - Don Young has represented Alaska for a long time, and as such he appears to have been corrupted by it. He faces a strong primary challenge. That leaves an opening for Ethan Berkowitz, former leader of the Democrats in the Alaska legislature and from personal experience he is an all-around nice guy. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich is running for Senate, where he should finally give Ted Stevens a good run.
Arizona 01 (Open Seat) - Rick Renzi's retirement opens up this seat, Arizona's largest geographically, which hosted a worthwhile challenge by Ellen Simon in 2006 against the incumbent Republican. Renzi's indictment makes it even tougher for the Republican candidate, who'll have to distance himself or herself from Renzi. McCain will likely help the GOP candidate a lot, however.
Connecticut 04 (Shays) - Shays has threatened to retire if not given a ranking committee assignment. If he leaves, this Democratic-leaning seat could be an easy pick up. However, even if he stays, this seat cannot be ruled out because he has only won by two or three points in each of the last two elections.
Florida 13 (Buchanan) - Democrat Christine Jennings fought for months after this very close race (she lost by 369 votes) raised questions about accurate vote-counting. Will this coastal district in West Florida be as close this time?
Illinois 10 (Kirk) - Moderate Republican Mark Kirk survived in this Democratic majority district in 2006 in suburban Chicago, but he remains vulnerable in 2008, and will face Dan Seals, his challenger in 2006.
Louisiana 04 (Open Seat) - With Republican Jim McCrery retiring, this seat may be a compelling pick-up opportunity for Democrats in this emerging swing district in Western Louisiana.
Michigan 09 (Knollenberg) - Joe Knollenberg's 6-point victory may be enough to convince Democrats to spend some real money in this district in 2008. Former State Lottery Commissioner and Fmr. State Senator Gary Peters will face him in 2008.
Minnesota 03 (Open Seat) - With the retirement of popular GOP incumbent Jim Ramstad, this swing district in the Minneapolis suburbs becomes a potential pick up for the Democrats. Iraq War veteran Ashwin Madia will face Republican state representative Erik Paulsen.
New York 29 (Kuhl) - Kuhl has had close races in the last two elections. There is no reason to expect anything different this time, even in this rural southwest corner of New York State.
North Carolina 08 (Hayes) - In 2006, Robin Hayes struggled to keep his seat east of Charlotte, winning by only a few hundred votes against a relatively unknown challenger, Larry Kissell, who he will face again in 2008.
Ohio 01 (Chabot) - Chabot's 6-point victory in 2006 shows that beating him will be tough in this district in Ohio's southwestern corner, but in 2008 he faces a much stronger challenger in minority whip of the Ohio state House, Steve Driehaus.
Ohio 02 (Schmidt) - Jean Schmidt faces Victoria Wulsin once again in 2008. This should be another horse race.
Pennsylvania 06 (Gerlach) - Jim Gerlach pulled out tight victories the last two elections, and will have to face another tight contest this time.
Washington 08 (Reichert) - A tight race in 2006 is likely to be tight in 2008 in this Democratic-leaning district in suburban Seattle.
Slightly Vulnerable Republicans (15)
Alabama 02 (Open Seat) - Although a red district, the retirement of Terry Everett and emergence of Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright as the Democratic candidate creates a real buzz in this southeastern Alabama district.
California 04 (Open Seat) - With an ongoing FBI investigation of he and his wife, John Doolittle retired, fearing a loss in this heavily Republican District in California's Northeastern corner. Challenger Charlie Brown got close in 2006, and may still have a shot if the Republicans aren't able to stray from Doolittle's ethical issues. Still, Republican State Senator Tom McClintock may be a formidable opponent here.
Colorado 04 (Musgrave) - Musgrave pulled out a 3-point victory in 2006 and this seat remains up for grabs in a district covering Eastern Colorado and Fort Collins.
Florida 08 (Keller) - This seat was more competitive in 2006 than many expected, and despite being in Central Florida, has a Cook rating of R+3.
Florida 24 (Feeney) - As an ethically challenged Republican, Tom Feeney may be a target in 2008. He received 58% of the vote in 2006, in a race that was pretty much ignored in Florida's eastern coast. In 2006, Feeney faced a man who accused him of fixing a previous election.
Idaho 01 (Sali) - Sali angered a lot of Republicans in his time in the Idaho legislature, but still won this seat by 5 points despite GOP defects in the State Party. Given his knack for saying the wrong thing, Sali could slip up and give the Democrats another shot.
Michigan 11 (McCotter) - Despite a strong victory 11-point victory in 2006, McCotter remains a potential target. Not to give him advice, but Thaddeus would be wise not to call people "the Devil" just because they disagree with his vote against expanding health care for children. I think that is more like something Jesus would do.
Minnesota 06 (Bachmann) - Bachmann's strong victory in 2006 may scare off some Democrats, but her far right conservatism may also scare off some voters.
Missouri 06 (Graves) - This seat in Missouri's Northwest corner will present a unique pick-up opportunity with the Democrats running former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes.
Missouri 09 (Open Seat) - Another open seat has been created by Kenny Hulshof running for Governor, this district may have some potential with former Missouri Democratic House Speaker Steve Gaw in the race.
Nevada 02 (Heller) - Heller's 6 point victory in 2006 was strong, but it does not change the fact that growth in Northern Nevada will keep this a swing seat in 2008.
Ohio 14 (LaTourette) - LaTourette won with 58% of the vote in 2006 in this district covering Ohio's northeastern corner, yet this is still a swing district for 2008. Cook rating is R+2. LaTourette will face Appeals Court Judge William O'Neill, as his Democratic challenger.
Virginia 02 (Drake) - Despite losing in the polls with only a few weeks remaining until election day, Drake was able to keep her seat in southeastern Virginia by pulling out a decades old scandal on Democratic challenger Phil Kellam. Now the Democrats have a new candidate who may be formidable, in former diplomat Glenn Nye.
Virginia 10 (Wolf) - Despite a strong victory in 2006, Wolf faces a district in Northern Virginia that is trending more and more Democratic.
Wyoming at-large (Open Seat) - The Republicans are clearly better off without Barbara Cubin running, since she only won by 1,000 votes in 2006 in this very conservative state. However, Gary Trauner ran a strong campaign in 2006, and could still be a tough challenge for whoever the Republican is that runs for this seat.
10 Other Republican races to watch
Arizona 03 (Shadegg), Florida 15 (Open Seat), Illinois 06 (Roskam), Illinois 18 (Open Seat), Maryland 01 (Open Seat), Minnesota 02 (Kline), New Mexico 02 (Open Seat), Pennsylvania 03 (English), Pennsylvania 18 (Murphy), Virginia 05 (Goode)
Highly Vulnerable Democrats (9)
Alabama 05 (Open) - The retirement of Bud Cramer in this very "red" district encompassing the northern part of Alabama is a strong pick up opportunity for the GOP.
California 11 (McNerney) - Pombo's defeat in 2006 appeared to be a great step for this district, but its conservative voters may still change their minds. McNerney's best hope is that his strong clean energy stance will help validate him with the high costs of oil. He faces a reasonably strong challenger in 2008.
Florida 16 (Mahoney) - Mahoney may be fortunate that he probably won't face a big name Republican in 2008, but this remains a tough district for Democrats.
Georgia 08 (Marshall) - Jim Marshall faced a tough contest in this conservative district in 2006. He may face an even tougher challenge in 2008.
Kansas 02 (Boyda) - Was Boyda's victory in 2006 a fling for moderate-conservative voters, or will it be a lasting relationship? Jim Ryun appears to be up for a rematch. Too bad for him they aren't competing in the Mile run.
Oregon 05 (Open Seat) - Darlene Hooley's retirements opens up this seat for the Republicans. This seat covers the relatively-conservative state capital of Salem and Hooley won over 55% of the vote only once during her tenure. Democrats will need a strong candidate to keep this seat.
Pennsylvania 10 (Carney) - This year, Chris Carney doesn't have the luxury of running against a man embroiled in a sex scandal involving choking. This seat in Pennsylvania's northeastern corner is strong Republican-leaning, and Carney faces a much tougher challenger this time out.
Texas 22 (Lampson) - Lampson had a lot on his side in 2006 in Tom Delay's old seat south of Houston. Now he faces a real challenge. This would be a great victory if the Democrats can somehow hang on here.
Wisconsin 08 (Kagen) - Steve Kagen is a freshman Democrat in a Republican-leaning district in northeastern Wisconsin. He will likely face John Gard, Republican Speaker of the State Assembly and his challenger in 2006.
Vulnerable Democrats (7)
Arizona 08 (Giffords) - Although she had a strong victory to gain her seat in 2006, Giffords now faces the President of the Arizona state Senate, Tim Bee. This should be an interesting race to see if she can still mount a big win in 2008.
Illinois 08 (Bean) - Melissa Bean survived a strong challenge in 2006 owed in part to the Democratic wave, but she will have her work cut out for her to retain her seat again. She faces wealthy businessman Steve Greenberg in 2008.
Indiana 09 (Hill) - Former and current Congressman Baron Hill won back his seat in 2006, but it was the closest of the three Democratic victories in Indiana.
Kentucky 03 (Yarmuth) - This race will likely be a rematch between freshman John Yarmuth and Anne Northrup, the former Congresswoman he defeated in 2006. Although he defeated her soundly in 2006, that doesn't mean facing this well-known candidate is an easy victory.
New Hampshire 01 (Shea-Porter) - Shea-Porter pulled off a surprising victory in 2006 against heavily favored Jeb Bradley. If he wins the primary in September, Bradley will likely challenge her again to get his seat back.
New York 20 (Gillibrand) - In conversation with a reliable source in the summer of 2006, I was told that Sweeney was in real trouble. Few believed my source was accurate, but alas they were wrong and I was right. In 2008, however, Gillibrand will face some decent GOP opposition in Sandy Treadwell, former chairman of the New York State Republican Party.
Pennsylvania 04 (Altmire) - As a freshman, Altmire is likely to face a tough challenge for re-election against former Congresswoman Melissa Hart, who he beat in 2006 in this swing district northwest of Pittsburgh.
Slightly Vulnerable Democrats (14)
Arizona 05 (Mitchell) - While his victory was strong in 2006, the GOP could still mount a strong candidate against Harry Mitchell in 2008. This district in the Phoenix suburbs remains a swing district.
Georgia 12 (Barrow) - Barrow remains a vulnerable Democratic incumbent, who may have kept his seat in 2006 only due to the Democratic wave. However, he does not appear to have as strong a Republican challenger in 2008.
Illinois 14 (Foster) - After Denny Hastert left office early, Democrat Bill Foster won the district's special election 53-47 over Republican dairyman Jim Oberweis. This seat will remain slightly vulnerable for him as he enters Congress at a crazy time in this Republican-leaning seat.
Indiana 07 (Open Seat) - The victory of Andre Carson in the March special election may secure this seat for the Democrats in Indianapolis. The race was still relatively close, and shows a divide remains in the district, that could still leave this political newcomer vulnerable in November.
Kansas 03 (Moore) - While he didn't face a tough challenge in 2006, he may have a tougher contest this time. He remains slightly vulnerable in this urban, suburban Kansas City district Bush won by 12 in 2004.
Louisiana 06 (Open) - Although this seat adds to the list of slightly vulnerable Democrats, do not fret. It was a Republican seat until May 3rd! That was until Democratic State Representative Don Cazayoux won the Special Election and took this seat from the Republicans. He will have to run again in November. The question is will he still take on former State Representative Woody Jenkins? The district covers Baton Rouge and remains a swing district.
Minnesota 01 (Walz) - Walz pulled out a surprising victory in 2006, but will likely face tough opposition in 2008.
Mississippi 01 (Childers) -Travis Childers victory over Greg Davis on May 13th made this the 3rd Republican Congressional loss in 2008. This remains a heavily GOP district, but after two successful victories, the 2nd by 8 points, Childers chances to retain his seat may be better than previously thought.
New Hampshire 02 (Hodes) - Freshman Democrat Paul Hodes may face a strong challenge for the seat he picked up in 2006. There is a crowded primary on the Republican side.
New York 19 (Hall) - Perhaps catapulted by his appearance on the Colbert Report, Hall's surprise victory in 2006 had many in the GOP scratching their heads. He may be able to skirt trouble in 2008 if the GOP can't get it together to mount a decent challenge in this district.
New York 24 (Arcuri) - I hesitate to say this is vulnerable at all, but the GOP screwed up big time with their phone sex ad in 2006, and maybe if they learn from their mistake they may actually mount a decent challenge against the freshman incumbent.
Ohio 18 (Space) - This conservative-leaning district east of Columbus was ripe for a GOP comeback against the fortunate freshman Democrat who rode the Bob Ney corruption/resignation wave to his seat in 2006. Yet the GOP has not been able to secure a strong challenger for this contest.
Pennsylvania 11 (Kanjorski) - While not competitive in the last few elections, the decision by Hazelton Mayor Lou Barletta to run for this seat may result in a close race.
Texas 23 (Rodriguez) - Democrats had to wait until December before Ciro Rodriguez could claim victory in this recently rearranged district in West Texas. He is likely to defend his seat this time, but remains somewhat vulnerable.
5 Other Democratic races to watch
Connecticut 02 (Courtney), Indiana 02 (Donnelly), Iowa 03 (Boswell), North Carolina 11 (Shuler), Pennsylvania 08 (Murphy)
Conclusion
As you can see, this is a very exciting year. The era of the entrenched incumbent is over. A Presidential year only ups the stakes. This year, the GOP is not only a strong minority party, they are on the ropes and struggling to prevent a Democratic super majority. Democrats could theoretically have a 100 seat advantage if they gained 32 net seats, which is in the realm of possibility. Although a 50 seat advantage would be more likely. To accomplish this, we need to read up and get educated about our candidates and their opponents and we need to support our candidates no matter what district.
Key campaign resources
Cook Political Report
Politics1
Electoral Vote.com
Race Tracker
Daily Kos blogs on House districts
Seems like odds would favor a bigger margin. They spent a good deal on these special elections, that they lost. It seems public sentiment and financial position put Republicans in a bad place.