I just received the results of a new 2nd CD poll by Bennett, Petts & Normington. The bottom line of it is that Rep. Thelma Drake is in big, big trouble. Check out some of these findings:
*Drake has 95% name recognition, but only 40% would vote to re-elect her. In short, almost all 2nd CD voters know Thelma Drake, yet they want to get rid of her. That's not what you want to hear when you're an incumbent, that's for sure.
*Glenn Nye, her Democratic opponent, has only 9% name recognition yet trails Drake by just 48%-32%.
*All that's not bad, but THIS is stunning!
After voters are presented with a profile of Nye as a Foreign Service Officer who rescued American hostages with a message of commonsense economics and bipartisanship and one of Drake that highlights her local roots with a message of being pro-military and anti-taxes, Nye pulls into a statistical tie (45% to 47%). After a positive exchange, Drake fails to gain even a single vote. Her growth potential is severely limited.
*But wait, it gets even WORSE for Thelma Drake: "After an exchange of negative statements about both candidates, Nye pulls into the lead, 49%
to 40%, against Drake." Whoops!
Finally, as if all that isn't bad enough news for Thelma, check out these bullet points from the poll:
This poll sampled African Americans at 10% of the electorate-typical for VA-02. With
Barack Obama at the top of the ticket, turnout among this core group is likely to increase, benefiting Glenn Nye.GÇó This poll sampled voters under age 45 at 33% of the electorate-again, typical for VA-02. These voters have much lower ratings of Drake and move more quickly to Nye. With Barack Obama at the top of the ticket, turnout among this core group is likely to increase, benefiting Glenn Nye.
GÇó The National Republican Campaign Committee independent expenditure spent over $1.3M to defeat Phil Kellam. As of the end of March, the NRCC had just $7.2 million cash on hand. They are simply in no position to repeat that kind of spending.
GÇó In three special elections in the last few months (IL-14, LA-06 and MS-01), Democrats have picked up seats in heavily Republican congressional districts. The wave from 2006 is accelerating in 2008 and VA-02 is a top target.
In sum, Thelma Drake is in big, big trouble. Please support Glenn Nye in any way you can, and let's turn the 2nd CD "blue" this year. It's long past time.
Glenn Nye is an awesome candidate and will make a superb congressman - if anyone knows any way to get money going in his direction - do it!
I will send more when I can afford it.
I also blogged, livejournaled, and dairied about it here; asking for people give give in small amounts to mirror Obama's campaign. Lots of people each giving a little money. It makes a statement I think...
Go Glenn Nye!
We've got a great chance to win this seat. My sense from being all over the 2nd district has been that Thelma is even less popular than she was in 2006, and this poll appears to confirm that. I don't think there's much Thelma can do now to change people's impression of her. People are on to the fact that she's a rubber stamp and that she's weak and ineffective. Now voters just need to get to know Glenn. When they do, he'll win over voters.
I'm looking forward to having Glenn Nye as my Congressman. He's going to do a fantastic job.
Having said that, 2008 could be a make-or-break year for Democrats and Republicans in the 2nd; if Virginia is indeed a swing state, McCain is going to try and find a lot of his voters in this part of Hampton Roads. It is imperative that Virginia Democrats cut McCain's margin in this part of the state so the Democratic engine in NOVA and the 3rd District can carry Obama over the finish line, and that starts by giving local boy Glenn Nye the resources he needs to win this race.
I encourage everyone to give generously; I'm donating now.
http://www.glennnye.com/home/