this is a big pick-up for Democrats in Mississippi.  Sweeping these three special elections is likely to create a nasty hit to NRCC fundraising.  

Not sure what the GOP will do in the Fall -- my guess is that they're going to have to rely heavily on 527 where a handful of billionaires and multi-millionaires foot the bill.  Fortunately, the two million or so dropped in MS-01 and in Louisiana doesn't appear to have been enough to tilt the balance.

MS-01 is R + 10.

VA-01: R + 9;
VA-02: R + 6;
VA-04: R + 5;
VA-05: R + 6;
VA-06: R + 11;
VA-07: R + 11;
VA-10: R + 5;
VA-11: R + 1.

Jes' sayin'. [And, yes, I do realize there's a large difference between an open seat and running against an incumbent. But, still ...]

And the final margin is approx 7.4%.

So, to get to 50/50 this district would effectively be R + 13.7, give or take.

That would put the entire VA delegation in play. And Virginia ain't Mississippi. Even if we attribute, say, 15 points to incumbency, that still puts everything up to R + 6 fully into play. If we say that incumbency this year is only worth a net 10 points, well, that about puts the 1st District in play, as well. VA-06 and VA-07 are still tough, but not out of the question, in this environment. With 0bama and Warner at the top of the ticket, who knows ...

for state-wide volunteers and donors to prioritize their giving and working where it will have an impact.  The easy pick up is the 11th, which I think trends Democrat (or possibly even left of Democrat) now.

This makes me think to focus on the 10th, the 4th, the 5th and the 2nd next.

Of course everyone should focus a little on their own district; which for me is the 10th, and we should not forget to support the existing Democrats we do have in the 3rd and the 8th; but we can change Virginia's delegation of Congress-critters from 2 Democrats, 7 Republicans, and two outright loons (Drake and Cantor) to 7 Democrats, 2 Republicans, and freakin' Cantor... sigh.  Why can't the 7th be in reach?

I totally forgot to mention that we should also remember to support Rick Boucher in the 9th as well.

Which means the math should read:
3 Democrats, 6 Republicans, and two outright loons (Drake and Cantor) to 8 Democrats, 1 Republicans, and freakin' Cantor.

So now I am a little scared, started doing district by district research at the State Board of Elections website (which is painful to use), and I can't find any Democratic candidates for the following districts!

VA-01, VA-04, VA-07

While I understand about the 7th; but I sure hope I am missing some good candidates for the 1st and 4th.

It is nice that no one appears to be challenging Bobby Scott or Rick Boucher.

The only primary challenges are in the 8th, 10th, and 11th (on June 10th).
Looks like no Democrat wanted to wrestle with Mark Warner for Senate, and the Republicans are doing a convention/caucus to avoid cross-over Dems messing with the process...

What is a little scary for us Byrne supporters is that they Republicans in the 11th have no Primary either, so Republicans in the 11th are free to mess with the 4 way Democratic Primary there.  Egads!  Very shrewd move for Keith Fimian (the presumptive Republican nominee who has very good funding).

VA-01:  Robert J. Wittman (R) unchallenged?  (May 17th convention?)
VA-02:  Thelma Drake (crazy-lady) challenged by Glenn Nye (D), go Glenn!
VA-03:  Bobby Scott (D) unchallenged?
VA-04:  Randy Forbes (R) unchallenged?
VA-05:  Virgil Goode (R) challenged by Tom Perriello (D), go Tom!
VA-06:  Bob Goodlatte (R) challenged by Sam Rasoul (D?) and Janice Lee Allen (I)
VA-07:  Eric Cantor (R) unchallenged?
VA-08:  Jim Moran (D) challenged in primary by Matt Famiglietti and in the General by the winner of a primary between Mark Ellmore and Amit Sing
VA-09:  Rick Boucher (D) unchallenged?
VA-10:  Frank Wolf (R) challenged in primary by Vern McKinley and in the general by the winner of a primary between Judy Feder and Mike Turner
VA-11:  open seat, four way Democratic primary, only one Republian, Keith Fimian, and one Independent Green, Joe Oddo.

Please help me fill in the blanks here - this was just some quick searching via wikipedia and google since both votesmart.org and Virginia's SBE site failed me.

And I found the information right here on RK, thanks to TruBlue!

Lowell, how about a sidebar focusing on VA Congressional races, district by district in the sidebar?  At least through the November election...

Might help inform voters and keep us on target...

I'll talk to our tech/graphics guru Eric about it...

You have created something incredibly powerful here in RK.  A way the community can organize itself into electing progressive leadership and make change happen.  Thank you very much.

If I were a billionaire owner of say, the Sands Corporation that owns the Venetian, I'd be thinking, why waste my money when I could be building another multi-million dollar casino in Macau.  And if were a billionaire, I would be hedging my bets.  If I were say the CEO of a large natual gas company (and former Swift Boat Veterans for Truth supporter), I'd want to ensure that I had still had some say in Washington even if my choice didn't win.  It's all about return on investment.

I don't think big money is going to throw their money away.  If they have good odds and it is enough to tip the scales (say in Ohio), then I expect them to go in big.  But if it is a losing proposition, I doubt they are going to waste their money.  These people are not where they are today because they made lousy decisions.

in theory.  

Of course the names Skilling and Lay come to mind -- some billionaires seem to have wealth formed on a high-risk high-reward strategy; others tend to build wealth more gradually.

Not exactly sure where William Weidner fits into that spectrum -- although my sense is that he doesn't approach issues with the same degree of ideological distance as a Warren Buffett or a Bill Gates.  

like they did in the LA special election. It didn't work.

As much as this election pleases us, we can't put too much into it for national meanings...  The GOP failed to tie Childers to Obama, and Childers did not run from the association; but he did not have to.  This district knows him.  This one was all about local politics, nothing to do with Obama.

I still think it is a bad sign for the GOP in general, but any other Democratic candidate would not have been able to win here, at least not by this margin.

for him to be such a large part of the "negative" mail in this race and for Childers to increase his margin like that. A great night.  

Childers will have won despite Obama and not because of him.

probably a slight boost for Childers.  

Childers distanced himself from the national party and Obama in his public comments.  He effectively neutralized the issue in the center and gave voters sufficient reassurance that he would be act independently.

On his left flank though his public comments didn't shake his base support.  In fact it looks like the GOP attacks may have motivated the Democratic base and increased Childers margins over the previous contest.  

That's what this spells for Republicans in the fall.  10 seats in the Senate would be manna from heaven.  Oh, RNC, how will you fund both McCain's campaign and all these congressional candidates?

Autumn will be lovely this year.

I mean it, it's possible.

If Greg Fischer can win in Kentucky next Tuesday, three of the absolute worst Bush-enablers and obstructionists in John Cornyn (TX), Elizabeth Dole (NC), and Mitch McConnell (KY) can be given the heave-ho this fall. Even Georgia isn't out of the question, as good ole' Saxby also has pretty miserable job performance numbers for an incumbent.

About the only seats out of bounds right about now are the two in Wyoming, the second Mississippi seat (Thad Cochran's, although after tonight ... who knows?), the Alabama seat (unless Ron Sparks can be convinced to run), the South Carolina seat (unless/until a credible Dem decides to run; Graham is also not very popular back home), and probably the Tennessee seat. Every single other Senate race is potentially winnable in these national conditions.

We're gonna pick up a minimum of 30 seats in the House, to boot, and probably 50. Hopefully here in VA we can toss at least three, but hopefully four or five or more, into the kitty to go with Senator Warner, Mark.

Heady times!

Since when did vademocrats.org become useful?  Pleasantly surprised!

http://vademocrats.org/pages/2...

Anita Hartke - www.hartkeforcongress.com - is challenging Cantor in the 7th.

And the party has no one listed as challenging Wittman in the 1st.  Probably because of the recent special election there?

Dr. Keith Hummel is the Democrat in the 1st

and while I'm at it...

Glenn Nye in 2
Bobby Scott in 3 (no Republican)
Andrea Miller in 4
Tom Perriello in 5
Anita Hartke in 6
Sam Rasoul in 7
Jim Moran and Mike Famiglietti in 8
Rick Boucher in 9 (no Republican)
Judy Feder and Mike Turner in 10
Doug Denneny, Lori Alexander, Leslie Byrne, and Gerry Connolly in 11

We have a candidate in 11/11 districts, Republicans have candidates in 9/11 districts.  That in and of itself is an accomplishment, and I thought the same last night - no district in Virginia is as Republican as Mississippi 1.  Things are looking good.

is that MS-01 didn't involve an incumbent, so it's a little tough to measure just how big the impact will be in November.  No question though that the GOP right now is facing a headwind in 2008 -- the special election outcomes suggest that it may be even stronger than the national party faced last election cycle.

The other side of this is that the Republican incumbents are likely going to be entirely on their own this election cycle in terms of fundraising.  

The RNC money likely will be directed primarily to the presidential race; and the NRCC has to defend something like 20 open seats with the $7 million or so that it still has left in the bank.  Some 527 may fill the void -- but the GOP is likely going to be playing defense in several seats across the country this election cycle.

On the other hand, there's a very good chance that some the new Democratic challengers will get financial assistance from the DCCC.  

Great run-down though on the challenger list.  It'll be interesting to see how things play out in November.

So - I wonder why he is not listed on http://vademocrats.org/pages/2...
Perhaps they are a little behind?

So I am sending a note to the contact for that website, and it might be Amy Reger (or might have been).  We'll see if it gets fixed.