HERE'S A THOUGHT: Gerald Pomper, professor emeritus of political science at Rutgers University, suggests on realclearpolitics.com that if Barack Obama succeeds in winning the Democratic nomination for president, he should pick Virginia Sen. Jim Webb as his running mate.His thinking is sound. The articulate and urbane Mr. Obama lacks experience and credentials in foreign policy and national security. Those who see defense as this nation's most pressing need would be drawn to the GOP's Sen. John McCain.
But adding Mr. Webb to the Democratic ticket would diffuse some of that enthusiasm [for John McCain]...
If that's not enough, Mr. Webb claims rural roots among the Scots-Irish frontiersmen whose descendants work in the coal mines of Appalachia and fill blue-collar jobs all over America--exactly the constituency most resistant to Mr. Obama.
I couldn't agree more with this analysis. Jim Webb is the perfect complement to Barack Obama, bringing tremendous national security credentials; a strong emphasis on economic fairness and social justice; and an appeal to rural, working-class, sometimes voters (many of whom were "Reagan Democrats" like Webb). The only major downsides, as far as I can tell, are: 1) that Webb isn't big on campaigning; and 2) that we'd lose Webb in the U.S. Senate.
On the first point, I'm not particularly concerned about that. Webb is an excellent public speaker and debater, and that's worth a lot right there. Also, the 2006 campaign proved that Webb could "suck it up," so to speak, and get out on the campaign trail even if he didn't particularly enjoy it. On the second point, it's true that we'd lose Webb in the Senate, but that wouldn't be disastrous as Gov. Kaine would appoint Webb's successor (Chuck Robb?), pending another election. For those who don't believe Democrats could hold that seat, I'd just throw out a few names as possible candidates: Chap Petersen, Donald McEachin, Jody Wagner, Brian Moran, Creigh Deeds. As far as I can tell, any of those would be strong candidates to hold Webb's seat in an election against, let's say, Jim Gilmore. Meanwhile, we'd have Jim Webb in the White House, Mark Warner and the interim Kaine appointee in the U.S. Senate. Not a bad tradeoff, if you ask me.
However, Democrats not winning the White House in November would be a much greater loss for the entire nation, and if Jim Webb would make the difference, then he should run for vice-president.
I'm also in agreement that there are a number of excellent candidates who could take his place - and be re-elected - to the U. S. Senate from Virginia.
As a recent Obama supporter, I'be been increasingly impressed with him and have do doubt that he could be a great President.
To do so, the Obama-Webb combination may just be the unbeatable ticket in November.
Where do we sign up for the "Draft Webb for Vice-President" movement?
Thanks!
Steve
I ask how/where to sign up for a "Draft Webb for Vice-President" movement, and a few minutes later you provide us with the vehicle to do so...
I've signed up, too.
Thanks again!
Steve
I'm campaigning for that slot via direct personal contact, e-mail, snail mail and telephone calls to the delegates as well as using flyers, posters and signs, and the 9th CD Democratic Convention takes place at Auburn High School in Riner this coming Saturday morning, May 17.
Since Raising Kaine was so successful in helping to elect Tim Kaine in 2005 and Jim Webb in 2006, as well as aiding in my re-election as Roanoke County's Circuit Court clerk last year, perhaps this is something that RK can do for me this year.
Any and all help would be greatly appreciated...
Obama-Webb 08!!
Thanks again!
Steve
Come on, Jim; do it for your country - we need you, once again!
Steve
Yeah, I know that we Virginia political bloggers were gung-ho for Vice President Webb all the way back in late 2006 but all sorts of other people in the media and in politics at every level have independently had the same thought since then. Let's allow them to feel clever and look at this thing and think to themselves 'I KNEW it had to be Webb!"
Usually I've found that giving up ownership of an idea makes it easier to get other people on board with it.
Sorry...
If not him, another name I've seen mentioned in the Washington Post is Sam Nunn, former Senator from Georgia. He brings a lot of the same national security and military credentials. And he is hugely respected throughout the South. He could truly put Georgia and Florida into play.
My only hesitation with Nunn is that he is a very conservative Democrat on domestic issues, having voted against a lot of progressive programs while in the Senate back in the 1980s.
Personally, I prefer Webb because he's perfect on both national defense and the social justice issues.
But I've never been as convinced or enthusiastic about some of the other contenders, such as Gov. Sebelius, as good a candidate as she'd be, because she has the same weakness as Obama, which is national security and military experience.
I think if Obama picks somebody who plugs that hole, he'll be very competitive against McCain even in Florida.
But I think there is a bigger constituency that Barack needs to solidify in his VP choice than socially conservative working-class whites, who are not a dependable Democratic voting constituency anyway -- and that is women. I know of many, many women that supported Hillary for a myriad of reasons (including my sister and many of my close female college friends), and I think there would be a great disappointment, a feeling of women hitting the glass ceiling again if a qualified woman were not put on the ticket. Now, the women in my circle that voted Hillary in the primaries will happily vote for Barack in November, no questions asked. But there's a difference between voting and becoming REALLY engaged in the campaign and deciding to help volunteer, especially for down-ballot races.
Both Sebelius and Webb would strengthen Barack's core appeal, which is a new politics of what is possible versus a conventional politics of what has been going on for the last 10 or 20 years. Both are DC outsiders that strengthen his core theme of 'change'.
I just don't think he needs to add someone to strengthen his foreign policy or military bona fides. I mean, he was RIGHT on Iraq, and his foreign policy ideas and speeches are intelligent and competent and confident. Frankly, going against McCain, all he needs to do is point at McCain's record, tie it to Bush's foreign policy, and say, "Well, you can vote for more of the same, and more wars of occupation ... or you can vote for me." Game over.
Barack can appoint competent advisors to the Pentagon, to Foggy Bottom, and as NSC and at Homeland Security.
Moreover, I think Webb is better suited to the Senate, and has shown he can make waves in that moribund institution in a short time. Imagine what he can do with Republicans not filibustering every damned bill of importance and with a majorly enlarged Democratic majority.
Final points: I also think Sebelius would help Barack shore up his left flank, such that he needs to. She is pro-choice, anti-death penalty, is forward-thinking on energy matters, is pro-labor (she signed a letter backing the card check bill with a number of other populist/progressive Dem governors), and, like Barack, helps make progressive policies seem more palatable to more conservative constituencies that normally would not support them/her. Plus, she is Catholic, and has deep familial ties to 0hio (her father was the governor back in the day) and Michigan, two important swing states this fall.
Most importantly, I really think her selection would be a salve to many Hillary supporters (at least the ones that I know) that feel that there are plenty of qualified women out there that deserve a chance (a point I find hard to argue with).
Still, I prefer Webb. But the Senate really needs him. Thus far, he's been its most compelling leader. I don't know how it will do without him.
1. I don't think Barack needs to shore up his left flank. I mean, he is, after all, rated the most liberal U.S. Senator by his voting record (if that means anything). Regardless, I think Obama's going to win this by putting together a broad coalition of Democrats (from liberals to "Blue Dogs") plus independents and even a few Republicans. Jim Webb would be a great choice in terms of winning independents, Blue Dogs, and a few Republicans.
2. I DO think Obama needs more national security and military experience on his ticket. Yes, Obama was "right" about Iraq, but the vast majority of people were "wrong," including tons of people I respect (e.g., John Edwards, John Kerry, Tom Daschle, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd). Also, some people who were "right" about Iraq are wrong on just about everything else. So, I definitely would look at the entire package, not just whether someone was for or against the Iraq war.
3. Webb brings an emphasis on economic fairness and social justice that Sebelius doesn't bring, at least not with the force that Webb provides.
4. Webb is a former Reagan Democrat and should appeal to white, working-class voters. Sebelius doesn't do that.
5. Having Webb on the ticket makes it much harder for John McCaain and the Republicans to try and denigrate the Democrats as "weak" on defense. Sebelius doesn't help there.
6. Given the huge "gender gap" of recent presidential elections, omen are likely to vote strongly Democratic anyway. I don't believe that adding Sebelius wins over many additional women.
In sum, I think Kathleen Sebelius would be a fine choice, but that Jim Webb would be an even better one. Maybe Sebelius can run for president in 8 years?
I'll stipulate to what you wrote in #3 and #5 -- those are Webb's two greatest assets that he'd bring to the campaign. We'll just have to disagree about #2. I think Barack can easily shore up that flank by putting together his national security team, even without official titles, and campaigning with them. Heck, I hope Senator Webb does a ton of campaigning with Obama regardless, but especially in this capacity. But I don't think Barack's broad vision of foreign policy needs any shoring up. And even IF he puts Jim Webb on the ticket, the Repubs and their 527 groups will attempt to mercilessly smear him on these issues. I think he'll be ready.
Just briefly on #1, I don't think he has a large weakness on his left flank, but there are concerns out there because his record in the Senate just isn't dispositive either way. I think she'd be a nice reinforcing 'wink' because of her stances on these types of issues (anti-dog-whistle politics, if you will). [Although, caveat: any time both Lowell and Kathy think I'm wrong, I'm probably wrong.]
As for #4, I'm unconvinced. We can say all day long that Senator Webb SHOULD appeal to those voters, but has he? Did he win the 9th against George Allen in 2006? My point isn't that he won't or can't, but I'm much less concerned about appealing to these voters than some are. They lean to the right because they are socially conservative, and many because they are not comfortable with multi-cultural America. A decent number probably will not ever vote for a black man for President. To the extent that they are called 'Reagan Democrats', it's because the realignment of the parties that began during and after the Civil Rights Era wasn't completed yet. If they are white working class and not unionized, they are very difficult to get into our tent.
So, going into #6, I think there is a much better chance to vigorously target women, especially married women, and I think Governor Sebelius really helps in that regard. Single women are definitely already a Democratic base constituency. But married women, especially in the suburbs and exurbs, are winnable. I think they will be the swing group in this election, along with independents. Sebelius won re-election convincingly in a very Republican state, in part by winning women and independents going away (see the crosstabs from SUSA's final poll of that race here, which almost perfectly nailed the final 58-41 margin. She also won nearly 30% of the Republican vote in KANSAS). I think that that's the appeal that she has, and that can really reinforce Barack's core appeal of reaching out to indy's and convincable Republicans.
Again, I think Webb is a winner of a choice. No doubt, and you have deftly explained the positives. I just think Sebelius is a better pick that reinforces his core message, strengthens his appeal among women and moderates and independents, and would make this historic candidacy an unbelievably historic ticket. AND, I just like having Jim Webb in the Senate, it seems to fit him intellectually.
I want to see Virginia flip this election, but I suspect that the mid-west and the west are probably the first priorities in terms of swing-states. Sebelius helps more than Webb in the heartland and the west. She is a known quantity in bordering states, so the GOP won't have as much fun "introducing" her to voters in the mid-west either.
As far as Webb goes, I wouldn't have any problem with him as the pick. I think he'd probably be a net positive -- there are actually quite a few good VP choices that I can think of -- including Webb.
I would be happy with either Webb or Sebelius as the pick -- my sense though is that Obama probably will pick Sebelius in part for the reasons that Ron has outlined. It's also hard not to see all of the work the two have done this election cycle as a kind of audition for the general election. The two seem to work very well as a team.
I realize she is also a progressive and a very popular governor in the midwest (and wasn't her dad Governor of Ohio?), so she brings more to the table than simply her gender. But the central idea around her choice sounds to me like that as a woman she would help bring disaffected Hillary supporters into the Obama fold.
These are kind of one-dimensional identity politics that will spell disaster in November for the Democrats. Hey folks, the GOP incumbent has a negative ratiing af a gajillion percent -- we're winning this one on the issues.
I wish I had time to research this a bit, since having made a fool of myself here numerous times in trying to write from memory rather than researching facts, I've just gotten things wrong. And I understand that many women identified with Clinton's run. But this is a reliable voting bloc and will support Obama in the Fall.
Also, Clinton coming close to winnng the nomination, but getting beat in a hard-fought campaign, is not a case of a woman reaching a glass ceiling. There was nothing artificial or gender-based about her loss. She got beat.
Finally, with Obama at the head of the ticket, there is plenty of historical significance already vested in this election.
If Sebelius brings enough to the ticket independent of her gender, then lets have her. But to me, her gender is irrelevant and would not be very meaningful from an electoral perspective.
That all said, a woman would be a smart choice for McCain, for all of the reasons it just wouldn't make a difference for Obama. I suspect we'll start hearing more about Kay Baily Hutchinson pretty soon. We'll see if it goes anywhere.
Sure, Obama can appoint good advisors to State and Defense and deal with his lack of experience in those areas that way. He can hear good advice from the Pentagon just as surely as from his VP. But it's hard to make that work in a political campaign. There are a whole lot of voters who want to see a ticket with someone who knows one end of a tank from the other rather than make any assumptions about who may or many not be nominated for Defense next year. This is McCain's great strength and we need to negate it. We have an opportunity to do so through our choice of a running mate and it would be folly to pass that chance up.
Sebelius would have made a good running mate for, say, Al Gore, who has plenty of defense and foreign policy chops. Or for John Kerry. She would actually be great at the top of the ticket with a Jim Webb or a Wesley Clark beneath her. But I don't think that she gets us any swing votes or picks up any independents like Webb can. She doesn't get us much of anything that Obama doesn't already have.
Moreover, Nunn has been out of action for 12 years. He left the Senate in 1996. He's certainly got far less of a name for himself in modern politics than Jim Webb has at this point. Policy wonks know him, but the teeming millions have forgotten his name.
Where was Sam Nunn during our long, tough fight against the disgusting excesses of the Bush Administration? Out of the picture. Now that most of the work has been done and people like us in the grassroots and Jim Webb have done the heavy lifting in the trenches, Sam Nunn can just walk back in as if nothing happened and take a seat of power. Huh. No thanks.
Also note that Nunn has been off the reservation and publicly flirted with an independent run for President with Michael Bloomberg. I certainly value Nunn's experience and advice on foreign policy issues, but I don't see a good case for handing this guy the keys to the city after he ran off in our darkest hour.
From Wikipedia, which I realize isn't the greatest source for controversial topics, but is decent on basic biographical information:
Samuel Augustus Nunn, Jr.(born September 8, 1938) is an American businessman and politician. Currently the co-chairman and Chief Executive Officer of the NTI (Nuclear Threat Initiative), a charitable organization working to reduce the global threats from nuclear, biological and chemical weapons, Nunn served for twenty-four years as a United States Senator from Georgia (1972 until 1997) as a member of the Democratic Party. His political experience and strong credentials on national defense reportedly put him into consideration as a potential running mate for Democratic candidate John Kerry in the 2004 Presidential election, and have fueled rumors that he could be the running mate of Democratic frontrunner Barack Obama in 2008.
Sam Nunn has been out of electoral politics for about 12 years but he has stayed current on national defense and national security issues.
Even though the public is deeply dissatisfied with the war in Iraq and, I think, the economy is going to be the major issue by November 2008, don't ever underestimate the concern of the average citizen for natiional security.
And he puts parts of the South in to play that just wouldn't be without him or Webb.
Again, I worry about his conservatism too. He's not my favorite choice. Far from it. But he'd be a good, pragmatic one.
Obama and Clinton no dream team, but there is oneBy Elmer Smith
Philadelphia Daily NewsDaily News Opinion Columnist
Now that the race for the Democratic nomination is all but over, we're starting to hear a renewed drumbeat for the so-called Obama/Clinton "dream team."
That's the sort of dream you get when you go to bed with a stomach full of tainted pork. ...
What he needs is someone to help him attract white working-class males. What Hillary Clinton has tried to characterize as an Obama problem is really a Democratic Party problem. None of the party's nominees has fared very well with white working-class males in the last four presidential races.
Some say Obama should choose a female running mate to keep disaffected Hillary voters from abandoning the ticket. But the women aren't going anywhere.
Women have not been voting against Obama. They have been voting for Clinton. In a race against McCain, the anti-war candidate will win the female vote.
My choice would be Sen. Jim Webb, the Virginia Democrat. Webb could help Obama cut his losses in the South, where Bill Clinton and Al Gore lost, despite Clinton being a former governor and Gore a former senator of Southern states.
They still would lose the South. But they can win Virginia and narrow the margin in the Deep South.
And Webb would help to insulate Obama from the armchair patriots who believe that being anti-war is the same as being anti-troops.
A highly decorated Marine Vietnam veteran and former Navy secretary, Webb is one of the very few congressmen with a son who has served in combat. He introduced a bill yesterday that would provide enhanced educational benefits for combat veterans from Iraq and Afghanistan.
It would guarantee a full-ride scholarship and a monthly housing stipend for veterans to attend any public university in their home state.
Democrats and nervous Republicans running for re-election may have enough votes for a veto-proof majority when the measure comes up later this month.
But a Bush veto would improve the Democratic Party's chances in the fall.
Webb, 62, is everything that Obama is not. That makes him a perfect complement for an Obama candidacy.
That's what I would call a dream team.
Apart from General Clark, from the short list of Sebelius, Richardson and the other estimable names being raised for the VP slot, no one fits this bill better than Jim Webb.
While I've remarked earlier that I don't think Jim Webb has lain awake at night dreaming about an office in the West Wing, and I suspect the May 19 publication date of A Time to Fight: Reclaiming a Fair and Just America is purely coincidental to where we're at in the nominating process, sometimes there's a wonderful thing called synchronicity. Here's hoping the planets are aligned.