4. Tim Kaine: Kaine's great strengths in this process are who he is and where's he from. A former missionary and a man who openly talks about his faith, Kaine could help Obama bridge the "God gap" that has emerged in recent presidential elections. He is also the highest ranking elected official in an emerging battleground state and his popularity coupled with Obama's appeal to African American voters statewide and white voters in northern Virginia could make the contest for the Commonwealth a barnburner. Kaine's problem is that he has spent just three years as governor (and four years as lieutenant governor before that) and has almost no foreign policy experience.
Also on the list: Sam Nunn (#5), Hillary Clinton (#3), Ted Strickland (#2), and Kathleen Sebelius (#1). Not on the list at all? Jim Webb, Bill Richardson, or Wes Clark -- the top 3 right now tin the RK poll. So, who's right, Chris Cillizza or the readers of Raising Kaine? Should I start a poll on that too? Ha. :)
P.S. A few interesting reader comments about Kaine:
Not Tim Kaine. While he was a very early Obama supporter, he doesn't leave office until 2010. Maybe he'll attract Republican votes in VA to get him out of the governorship so that the Republican Lt. Gov. will take over the office. But I think that the Democratic voters may feel betrayed.
and
...I still think that Jim Webb from Virginia would be more highly considered than Tim Kaine. Webb has the military experience, did very well in rural towns, is Reagan Democrat and can put VA in the Dem column, probably better than Kaine. He will also be more attractive nationally than Kaine (although Kaine will likely get a Cabinet post of some kind, but after the 2009 VA election, since the Lt. Gov is a Republican.
and
Kaine would be interesting, but doesn't do anything to add heft to Obama's relative lack of experience and should isn't about to have to give up his Virginia position. Carrying Virginia would be nice, but carrying Pa. and Ohio are essential.
So, what do you think? Please use this as an open thread to discuss who Barack Obama and John McCain will pick as their running mates. Thanks.
Anyway, my point is that her head is so empty that I would be concerned that speaking to her might result in her sucking the intelligence right out of you, in the way that air rushes into a vacuum, or like those dementors in the Harry Potter movies.
Sam Nunn will not be under consideration. Why? He is anti-choice. The Democratic Party has never had a anti-choice VP and we never will. Period. And thank god. Nunn would be a revolting pick.
Instead of Nunn I would put Webb on that list. I don't think he will be the pick but he brings everything that Nunn does and a lot more.
Also Kaine would give Virgina over to Republican rule for a year. That's not going to happen. I'd give Bill Richardson that slot.
And again. Clinton is not going to happen. That would kill Obama's message and they would be a horrible ticket. Instead put Wes Clark in that spot. He fits the military bill and the Clintonite bill but Obama could work with him and he still fits Obama's message well.
If it's going to be a Clinton supporter my first choice is Strickland but I think the best choice and the most likely choice is Kathleen Sebelius. I think The Line nails it on her.
The second-term Kansas governor earns the top spot on the Line because of her ability to further bolster Obama's strengths while not exacerbating his weaknesses. Picking Sebelius would affirm Obama's core message of change and would give Obama's run even more historic weight. Sebelius' electoral success in ruby red Kansas would also echo Obama's pledge to broaden the playing field in the fall and ensure that the party is competitive in every state. The one knock on Sebelius is the dearth of foreign policy credentials on her resume. But she has six years of strong executive experience and could be the kind of political partner Obama needs in the fall.
Obama/Sebelius 08
Richardson for Secretary of State
Webb for Secretary of Defense
"You're not going to see me leave. I'll be Governor of Virginia through January of 2010. Maybe after I'm governor I'll be able to help him."
Of course, if the call came, he could always wiggle out of that, but that seems pretty unequivocal to me as far as these things go. Perhaps life after Governor for Kaine is a Cabinet post to get some experience at a national level to go along with his executive experience, and a shot as the presidency in 2016, if I had to guess.
I think Obama can go round and round on this, but in the end, he will come back to Webb.
As for McCain, I don't know much about the GOP, but I think from his perspective Charlie Crist would be a great choice, helping cement Florida, which is a must win for the GOP, and appealing to independents. Also, Crist's popularity in Florida makes him a credible symbol for working with Democrats.
I don't think it will be Webb beacuse of the risk of losing the seat but I do think he will be on the short list.
Crist would probably be electorally the best canidate but he is gay (closeted but everyone knows he's gay) and the base HATES him beacuse he is a pretty decent, common sense kind of guy.
It will be Pawlenty if McCain goes with his gut or Romney if he goes with the big donors.
But I respectfully disagree with your Tim Kaine logic there. Barack Obama is going to be choosing a running mate based on whom he thinks can do a good job of being President in an emergency and based on whom he thinks can help him win more votes in November. Both of those considerations will far, far outweigh any concern for the fact that Virginia would have a Republican Governor subbing for Kaine for a year or so. In fact, I doubt that Obama would allow that fact to affect his judgment in the slightest.
As for Tim Kaine, c'mon. Nobody in their right mind turns down an opportunity to be Vice President of the United States just because the Governorship of a state would flip to the other team for a year (to a guy who has already ceded the '09 GOP gubernatorial nomination to the current AG anyhow). Seriously. Imagine yourself in that position. You'd spend the rest of your life kicking yourself for passing that up. Especially when there is no particular place for Kaine to go after being term-limited out as Governor. Both Senate seats will be held by Democrats when Tim Kaine leaves office. Hopefully there will be a Democrat in the White House with the 2012 nomination automatically locked up. Of COURSE Tim Kaine would jump on an opportunity like this. Literally, he's got nothing else in politics to look forward to.
While all that may make sense for the Rs, I think a McCain/Romney ticket would make for a landslaide Obama/whoever win.
Few (if any) issues are more important than the climate security of our country and the world. I think Tim Kaine would be more comfortable and expressive of his real environmental views in Washington but his cowardice in Richmond has shown that he is not a good leader. If I got a polling call today asking if I approve of Kaine as a governor, I would say no. If I had a choice between making Kaine the next governor somehow or leaving it to Moran or Deeds, I'd pick one of the latter two. Mr. Kaine has just about overstayed his welcome amongst the Democratic party in my view. I look forward to the day where he is either a private citizen or a member of the Obama cabinet in a post so far removed from the environment (there are few, if any) that he can no longer wreak havoc on our planet.
Kathleen Sebelius personally shut down the creation of a new coal plant. Her state is home to Greensburg - where hope and environmentalism joined forces to create a miracle. She is eloquent, and, in all honesty - a black man/white woman ticket would rock the politics of this nation like no event since the assassination of Bobby Kennedy, and it would amaze the world. And they would win. I voted for Ms. Sebelius in the RK poll, I'm glad she's at the top of Mr. Cillizza's list, and I dearly hope we're both right on this one.
(That having been said - two (relative) political newcomers, both from Plains states, isn't exactly the smartest move, geopolitically)
I'm still annoyed with him for vetoing certain firearms bills a few months ago. But it's not like he's rabidly anti-gun, so I still support him. And while I disagree with him on the coal plant, he's still with us on other environmental issues.
This really bums me out to say so, but I think that the next administration is going to have to do a lot of things that are not very environmentally friendly in order to prevent a total collapse of the American economy and an end to our way of life and our position in the world. I guarantee you that we're going to end up with an omnibus energy bill next year that involves not only increased CAFTA standards for all classes of vehicles and heavy funding for development of electric cars but also drilling in ANWAR, construction of new oil refineries, off-shore drilling in Florida and a number of new nuclear power plants.
There will be something in there for everyone to hate. The next Administration will need to ensure both the short and long term energy security of America. It's going to be the dominant issue as food prices continue to climb and the old 'guns or butter' question hits us square in the nose.
While I don't think that more coal burning plants are the answer, I do want a Democrat in office who will give me the finger now and then over some of my pet conservation issues in order to prevent an actual depression. I think I'm ok with Tim Kaine being part of that team.
[ducks under desk and covers face from inevitable flaming]
Realistically, I think we need to deal with getting less expensive oil into the American market during the next 10 years. That means quickly building new refineries to eliminate that as a bottleneck and probably drilling in new domestic crude oil sources. I would like to see a federal requirement that bonds be posted or something similar to guarantee funds for decommissioning those refineries and drilling sites in an environmentally responsible manner once we have moved over to better energy sources.
Look, I favor a major increase of CAFE standards ASAP. But that will only affect new vehicles and like most Americans, I can't afford to buy any new car right now. Or even one made 2 or 3 years ago. It will be years before newly made vehicles with greater fuel efficiency get out there into the market in high enough numbers to significantly affect oil consumption and energy costs in general. We've got to cross that bridge and I just don't see how to do it any other way (but I'm all ears).
As to an economic disaster, I strongly doubt there will be one, but if there is, it certainly won't be the result of the United States moving as rapidly as possible off our oil addiction. To the contrary (180 degrees, actually), it's our oil addiction itself that is exacerbating our economic problems, not to mention all the national security and environmental issues that go along with dependence on oil from Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Iraq, etc.
Finally, there are tons of good ideas out there for how we transition to a new energy economy, the problem is a lack of political will, combined with ignorance and vested interests resisting change. See here for some ideas on how we can slash our oil consumption while INCREASING the number of jobs in this country AND solving our enviro problems AND stopping the flow of money to countries that don't like us and to terrorists.
The root of problem is that the American economy has become a giant "paper-for-oil" deal. We buy energy, both directly as energy, and indirectly by importing goods made more cheaply in other nations where people command a smaller bundle of energy.[8] Goods from China cost less, not because Chinese factories are more efficient, but because Chinese workers have a smaller claim on resources than American workers. America prints paper - in the form of Treasury debt and US assets such as stocks - to buy energy from abroad.Because America runs an energy deficit, and must import it, and we cannot export other goods to others to pay for it, we run a trade deficit. It is a problem because there is one scarce commodity which all others are denominated in: oil. Oil is scarce, not because there is not enough energy in the world, but because it is so much cheaper to extract energy from oil than from other sources, and oil can be used to transport goods and people.
The competition is not over scarce energy in itself, but over a particular form of energy which can be used to substitute for everything else. There is nothing in this world that one cannot get more cheaply by using more oil to get it - whether by importing it, mechanizing its production, or using more energy to extract it. This is not only true of industry, but of people as well: Americans moved to the suburbs because it was cheaper to drive farther than to work through the problems of urbanization, and one could get a larger house with a larger yard in the bargain. As long as it was cheaper to pay rent to Saudi Arabia for the oil, because that is what we are doing, than to pay rent to the government for a working city, people chose to pay rent to OPEC rather than taxes to the government. This ability of oil to be used in place of almost everything else, and not whether there is "enough" oil, is the special property that makes it the basic scarcity of the world economy.
We can do a lot to reduce our transportation demand. It just means Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, LA and the Washington Metro cannot exist as they do today.
It's going to cost a lot. There will be a huge capital requirement. So economic activity is something we need not worry about. And people will still be consuming.
"As the price of oil goes up, there's got to be a green revolution. I think of what will be the next driver of the American economy, and it's green energy. That's a huge growth opportunity. It's not about the pollution. It's about the energy. Gas will go to $10 a gallon," he said.
Also, I love this:
Note: "The politicians' response should be, 'Get used to it,'" said Novogratz of the emerging energy crisis now fuelled by rising oil costs. He was particularly scathing of Hillary Clinton's gas tax holiday, which he called "the stupidest idea I ever heard."
The only two legitimate candidates up there are Hillary and Sebelius. Judging by Obama's responses when the "unity ticket" is brought up, it's quite clear he doesn't like the idea.
I think Mr. C was off by a long shot on this one. If he'd merely pay attention to what these people have said about running, he'd be a lot closer.
It's fun to think about, but there are so many obstacles, and Ted Kennedy isn't buying, he said on Bloomberg Television's "Political Capital With Al Hunt," which airs this weekend."I don't think it's possible," he told Hunt of the joint ticket, continuing that:
Obama should choose a running mate who "is in tune with his appeal for the nobler aspirations of the American people," Kennedy said. "If we had real leadership - as we do with Barack Obama - in the No. 2 spot as well, it'd be enormously helpful."
Ouch.
Kennedy, 76, without naming names, said Obama should pick someone who ``is in tune with his appeal for the nobler aspirations of the American people.''``If we had real leadership -- as we do with Barack Obama -- in the No. 2 spot as well, it'd be enormously helpful,'' Kennedy said.
A vice presidential candidate with national security credentials would be ``useful'' though not necessary because Obama, an Illinois senator, has a good understanding of foreign policy, Kennedy said. ``I think he's been eloquent; I think he's been incisive; and I think he's been right,'' he said.
As to a sympatico VP candidate with useful national security credentials who has also been eloquent, incisive and right:
Heading for Trouble
Do we really want to occupy Iraq for the next 30 years?
Washington Post
September 4, 2002
Think about it - what other choice is there? The vast majority of people whom we could think of who would be serious, credible picks for VP are Democrats who currently hold elected office. Practically ANYONE we suggest for VP would have to 'betray' the voters who elected them to whatever position they hold at the moment. The only exception is Wesley Clarke, who also provides a perfect example of how someone who has been out of office (or out of the service, in his case) for a while becomes a less compelling choice.
Just about nobody turns down an offer to become Vice President. No matter what the other considerations are, when you get offered that spot on the ticket, you take it. The notion of any politician saying 'no thanks' because they don't want to 'betray' their current constituents is hogwash.
John Kerry, Joe Lieberman, Al Gore, George W. Bush, Bob Dole, Jack Kemp, Bill Clinton, Dan Quayle, Michael Dukakis, Lloyd Bentson, Ronald Reagan and Geraldine Ferraro. All people who accepted their party's nomination for President or Vice President while they held some other elected office. Since 1980, George H. W. Bush, Walter Mondale and Dick Cheney are the only people to appear on a major party's ticket who did not hold some other office at that moment whose constituents they were 'betraying.'
Now, consider what the Democratic gubernatorial race for Governor would look like in 2009: Imagine our candidate, either Moran or Deeds, and standing behind them are President Obama, Vice President Kaine, Senator Webb, and Senator Mark Warner. It would be the ultimate political "flying wedge."
What would the Republicans respond with? A podium with Bob McDonnell, George Allen and Jerry Kilgore just wouldn't have the same visual "oomph," now would it?
Kaine is a strong and enthusiastic campaigner. He's someone who loves to campaign positively, but who isn't afraid to roll up his sleeves and duke it out if he needs to. Jerry Kilgore ran the typical Republican negative campaign and Kaine completely outfoxed him.
I think Obama could do really well with Kaine as his running mate and then just appoint a strong cabinet to ensure his administration can get the job done.
Jim Webb
Webb is the closest thing to a frontrunner for Obama's VP these days. A former Republican, he served as Secretary of the Navy for Ronald Regan. Webb defeated George "Macaca" Allen to become a junior senator in Virginia.
Pros: Webb is a good foil for Obama's post-partisan message, and he's the military credentials to go match up with John McCain. He's good at playing the attack dog, which will let Obama keep the high road. And he's from trending-blue Virginia, which would be a great pickup in November for Democrats. He's also pro-guns.
Cons: Webb can be a little out-of-control as attack dogs go.
;-)
That's how you respond to swift-boating.
Possibly my favorite moment of the entire Webb-Allen campaign, just a few days before the election. Go Webb! :)
One of the key things Kaine has on Webb politically is that he consistently polls better than 50% in public approval surveys in Virginia. Webb consistent polls under 50%. The last Survey USA sample rated Governor Kaine at very respectable 57% approval and pegged Webb ten points behind the Governor at 47%. There seems to be a disconnect between the blogosphere's impression of Sen. Webb and how Virginia voters at large feel about him. On the other hand, Virginia at large likes Kaine, and if the Governor could run for reelection, he'd probably win.
Webb's isn't a regional choice. Regional choices are becoming less and less important since the Mass Media has taken an effect. (Both Clinton-Gore and Bush-Cheney didn't have a lot of regional diversity) What Webb does is fill in a cultural and ideological gap that Obama has.
Which is why the Fix was smart to pick successful, popular statewide Democrats from red states like Georgia and Kansas and swing states like Ohio and Virginia. Strickland, for instance, polls at 54% approval in Ohio, a primary state Obama lost, and he polls exceedingly well with the sort of voters who broke for Clinton. Sebelius clocks in at an astounding 61%, good for anyone, let alone a Democrat in blood-red Kansas.
It's been nearly a year and a half since he was elected, and Webb still can't get more than 50% of the voters who know him best to express a positive opinion of him. I'm just saying....
For Obama, I think the most important criteria are:
1. A southerner
2. A military background
3. An aggressive and effective debator
But I would be surprised if Webb weren't VERY high up on the list. And as for bringing major constituencies to the table, inasmuch as any VP candidate can do that, Webb would definitely be an asset in appealing to working class, military/veteran, and more culturally conservative whites, especially men.
Webb makes a lot of sense, since he strengthens Barack's core argument of a new type of politics/politician and also brings foreign policy/military heft to the ticket. Now, I happen to think there is at least one better fit for Barack's ticket, but I'd be very surprised if Webb weren't heavily considered, especially as the Dem governor can appoint a Dem replacement for 2 years.
Pretty much all the candidates on the RK poll seem plausible to me except for Kaine, and maybe Clinton (considering how the campaign has unfolded). I'd be surprised if it doesn't end up being someone on that list.
And nix on Kaine. Interesting, but no fopo experience is a deal breaker.