So, what are you hearing? The latest from Zogby has Obama leading in NC (51%-37%) and also IN (45%-43%). I believe NC, but I don't believe (sadly) that Obama will win IN. If he does, it will be a major upset and could finally end this nomination fight. We'll see soon enough. Feel free to discuss the presidential race in the comments section of this diary. Thanks.
UPDATE 11:33 am: At least one report from Indiana indicates that "Amid heavy turnout, Republicans appeared to be crossing over in droves today in Marion County and suburban counties, where fewer Republican voters might impact down-ticket primary races."
In North Carolina, it looks like heavy turnout, with "[l]ongtime N.C. political observers say[ing] that 1.5 million voters may participate in the historic Democratic primary."
UPDATE 2:57 pm: Indiana polls close in just over 3 hours (yeah, I know, who ever heard of polls closing at 6 pm?). Believe it or not, "turnout may surpass the November 2006 election, when one-third of Marion County voters showed up, but might not be as large as the 2004 election, when nearly 54 percent of registered voters took part in the contest pitting President George W. Bush against John Kerry." Wow.
UPDATE 5:00 pm: Al Gore explains what he's thinking on a possible endorsement, while John and Elizabeth Edwards share their thoughts as well.
UPDATE 5:45 pm: Again, for what it's worth, Drudge Report headlines, "HILLARY'S 'DOUBLE DREAM' DASHED: EXITS SHOW EASY OBAMA WIN IN NC." More exit poll results, for what THEY are worth, here.
UPDATE 6:04 pm: Someone sent me exit poll results: NC 55%-42% Obama; IN: 52%-48% Clinton.
UPDATE 6:29 Courtesy of Huffington Post- Indiana: Obama 50.5%, Clinton: 49.5%. North Carolina: Obama: 60%, Clinton: 38%
Could this favor Obama? Your stereotypical Clinton voter - working at a factory all day, can't exactly say today is different and leave work early, and they might not get home in time to vote. Your stereotypical Obama voter - upper class, students, professors - it's not hard for them to find the time to go vote.
I've long thought that elections should be a national holiday, or at LEAST held on weekends. Obviously partisan primaries are a bit more iffy but still...
Even better, I have come to the belief that national elections would be best if held for a full 24 hours, simultaneously. That is: the beginning and end of the election "day" would occur at the same moments nation-wide. Thus, if the election started at 6am in Virginia, it would start at 9 am on the west coast.
This would provide voters with the greatest possible latitude to get to the polls. Any conflicts with work would be minimized. Also, the results would all come in together. No states returns could sway the turn-out in another. (Remember Florida: the polls closed in one part of the states, a winner was called by the press, and people in the western part of the state were able to respond to the early results. As a result, some speculated that eastern Florida actually swayed the turnout in more conservative, western Florida.)
Five things to pay attention to in Indiana.
And I agree, Lowell. An Obama win in Indiana finally ends this damn thing. I don't see it happening, though.
I think Obama may lose 2% of his voters (1% overall) because of the stormy weather in the North-West corner of Indiana, which would ordinarily be a huge bastion of Obama support. It will still be hugely Obama country, but by a smaller margin as weather does impact voters who already struggle to get the the polls.
I think BOTH Clinton and Obama will lose a small percentage of voters because of Indiana's voter-ID laws... this will take away about 2-3% of Obama's voters (again 1% of total) and 1-2% of Clinton's voters (about 1% of statewide total).
In the South-West corner of the state there is a lot of blatant racism, that has already been accounted for in the polls... but there is a hidden racism factor too - where people poll one way, but vote another. That is probably a small factor, but it will add up. So take 1% away from Obama's poll numbers and add it to Clinton (which is different than subtracting from both or just subtracting in the weather).
Best guess for Indiana: Obama gets 47.4% and Clinton gets 52.4% and delegate split is 35 for Obama and 37 for Clinton.
I'd consider that to be a stalemate; and incredibly good fortune for Obama for though it is a break from the leaked spreadsheet prediction, it says something about Obama continuing to be competitive where Bayh carries so much influence and endorsed Clinton.
This is one of those cases where I am glad to find out I was wrong.
That brings it to 47.9% for Obama and 51.9% for Clinton, no change in delegates...
What really concerns me is that I thought Indiana did NOT have open primaries, but I hear stories of Republicans voting in the Democratic primary like they did in Ohio and here in Virginia...
That could really throw things out of predictability.
My guess is that the independents (20%) went heavily for Obama, while the Republicans (10%) might have split (who knows). What do you think?
but those numbers do not seem too far fetched
Obama with 57.6% and Clinton with 42.3%, and precincts taking forever to tally up... well into tomorrow morning. Obama earns 63 delegates to Clinton's 52.
That brings the tally for the day to: +98 Obama and +89 Clinton.
Truth be told - this is all going pretty much in line with expectations from Super Tuesday (mild minor deviation here and there) and Obama will win June 6th when enough supers decide to end it.
Obviously if you're winning 8 or 9 out of every 10 votes of a certain demographic it is important. However, if you look at the polls released more recently (such as the Insider Advantage polls) you will see that African American voters only made up around 25% of the electorate. In the polls they did earlier that had Obama up by nearly 20 points, African American Voters made up anywhere from 33-37% of the electorate. That being said, polls are garbage, but it still shows how important it is to get your base of support out to vote
I also think early voting will play a big roll. In North Carolina an estimated 13% of the vote will come from early voting compared to only 4% of the vote in Indiana. I think this helps Obama in NC and is a wash in IN.
Al Giordano at the Field nails what the day looks like to us political-watching junkies. Good read (and his site has been a real find during this primary season).
At this point, I don't really see the harm in continuing this until everyone votes. Clinton can crow about thrashing him in two, uhm, somehow very relevant rural Appalachian states, and Barack can rack up his final wins in 0regon, South Dakota, and Montana -- and then hopefully we'll have our nominee by early-to-mid June.
So will all of Indiana close at what is 7 PM for us? What about the Northwest and Southwest corners of the state that are sortof in different time zones? I remember often being confused about when to call my sister when she was at Notre Dame.
Could I get a straight answer on when ALL polls close - pref. stated in what time it will be here in Virginia?
She also said that in years past at her polling place there was 1 booth and she never had to wait in line. This year, there were 4 booths and she had to wait. She and my brother in law were excited about casting their ballots for Obama!
What bothers me though is this duality that the media presents: either it is Rev. Wright or the Gas Tax. If that is really the case, then that is disgusting.
On Rev. Wright, I have to think this all boils down to Obama's skin color, else it would not be on the radar. What other times have we focused on the character or sermons of pastors, ministers, preachers, priests, etc... of churches that candidates attend? The only times we have is when they don't conform to a white protestant model (and even then select churches within that umbrella). The things that Rev. Wright may say outlandish things, he may be pompous or arrogant, but that is all in the context of the media's portrayal. And we don't know this man or his works. Who are we to judge him? And more important, what does this have to do with the character, deeds, and candidacy of Barak Obama? If it does, then it must also mean that John McCain thinks Roman Catholics are heretics and apostates from his association with John Hagee.
The entire Gas Tax thing has led to a rebellion in me against the idea that Barak Obama needs to be a fighter. Because the Gas Tax is linked to how certain candidates "understand" the common folk and are their champion. I now bristle at this idea. Because it makes me wonder: do the working class need a hero? Are they frail, infirm, or weak and need a guardian, a fighter, a caretaker? This idea of fighter has taken on this meaning to me. It sounds very much like a certain Russian serf-like mentality: "If only I could talk to the Tsar, he would solve all my problems." But we don't live in a fairytale or myth where the Gods send us a hero to battle our demons.
Nothing stands in the way of these people from organizing and petitioning their government for whatever they want. Well, they can't defy laws of physics (at a macro level) nor defy scarcity of resources. But you get the picture. This Gas Tax BS feeds into the ills of our society. It just translates into: "I'll delegate all the heavy lifting to a politician, my hero, and do nothing myself." It absolves people of their role in the solution.
Ultimately, the entire Gas Tax Holiday translates into: "I bought a gas guzzling car and live in BFE, please subsidize my poor decisions." Maybe this comes from my Houston, TX experience where the populace voted for poor city planners, opposed zoning laws, shunned mass transit and mass transit proposals, and fled to suburbia to segregate themselves from blacks and latinos. What is $9 billion in lost revenues for transportation anyway? We can always borrow more from China. Surely all of our problems can be solved in the US Tax Code!
It happens also to bring to mind what happened after years of Narodnik ("to the People" movement) in Tsarist Russia by the Social Democrats and the Revolution/Change-minded intellectuals. The Narodnik movement was their form of grassroots populism, and the high-minded intellectuals despaired of ever changing anything--- until everything came together in a perfect storm and destroyed the old regime.
But the Democratic National Committee had declared those delegates should not be counted as punishments to the states for moving their contests so soon in the process.So Clinton's argument depends on the actions of the party's Rules and Bylaws Committee when it meets May 31 to consider pro-Clinton challenges that would seat those delegations.
Clinton's new magic number to clinch the nomination is 2,209 delegates, compared to the 2,025 that would be needed without Florida and Michigan.
"The Obama people keep talking about 2,025, which implies they don't intend to seat Florida and Michigan," Ickes said. "We think that's a mistake on the part of the party - it's foolish."
Actually, Obama doesn't even have to do that good. As the leader, it's up to Hillary to change the race.
But I don't see her dropping out tomorrow, even if she loses Indiana. There's plenty to be negotiated -- someone with 48% of pledged delegates and millions and millions of votes doesn't just say, "Oh well, I tried. I quit."
But there will no longer be any point to any negative campaigning. To me, that's the key.
I don't believe she's trying to knee-cap Obama. But I also feel her loyalty is to herself, NOT the Democratic Party, especially since the party has refused to crown her Queen Bill II, and has thus far gone against her for a younger type.
She's the 50 Cent of politics.
Does that make Obama the "Kayne West"?
The real question is whether she will make deals or try to sabotage Obama in the general election to position herself against McCain in 2012. That's something that the Kosmonauts and others have been predicting since February.
One of her problems now, undoubtedly, is the inverse -- how to avoid being blamed for Obama's loss, so that in case he does lose, she will have viability for 2012.