Did Barack Obama Just Clinch the Nomination?

By: Lowell
Published On: 5/1/2008 12:36:55 PM

No, that headline is not a misprint.  Check this out:

A leader of the Democratic Party under Bill Clinton has switched his allegiance to Barack Obama and is encouraging fellow Democrats to "heal the rift in our party" and unite behind the Illinois senator.

Joe Andrew, who was Democratic National Committee chairman from 1999-2001, planned a news conference Thursday in his hometown of Indianapolis to urge other Hoosiers to support Obama in Tuesday's primary, perhaps the most important contest left in the White House race. He also has written a lengthy letter explaining his decision that he plans to send to other superdelegates.

"I am convinced that the primary process has devolved to the point that it's now bad for the Democratic Party," Andrew said in a telephone interview with The Associated Press.

I couldn't agree more that, at this point, the primary process has "devolved" and has become "bad for the Democratic Party."  I mean, I'm all for primaries, as they are how a political party fights for its soul -- progressive, conservative, whatever. In this case, though, everybody already knows where Obama and Clinton stand on the "issues," and the only thing people are really talking about is silly stuff like personalities and which pastor/reverend/minister the particular candidates may or may not have prayed with.  Also, it has been apparent for some time now that, barring a miracle, Barack Obama would end the primary season with more pledged delegates than Hillary Clinton.  Given all that, is there any point to this process anymore?  Not that I can see.

Here's what Markos "Kos" Moulitsas has to say about all this (bolding added by me for emphasis):

His defection to the Obama camp is a disaster for Clinton:

   * It's a high-profile, high-level signal to other super delegates that it's okay to switch to Obama in order to finally bring about the inevitable conclusion. One got the sense that many Clinton supers were getting antsy at the direction the campaign had taken. The dam was holding, but it has now sprung a leak. The whole thing now threatens to collapse.

   * It has the potential to give Obama a friendly news cycle for once. He hasn't had many of those lately what with Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, Jeremiah Wright, and John McCain all making common cause against Obama.

   * The math, already near-impossible for Clinton, just got that much harder. It's a net gain of two delegates for Obama -- +1 for Obama, -1 for Clinton.

   * Attack dog James Carville will likely blow his lid again.

[...]

...at this point, this is no longer a race about regular votes. Obama will win the pledged delegate, popular vote, and states won counts. The only race left is the one for the supers, and Andrew's defection is probably a fatal blow to Clinton's chances on that front.

Finally, I strongly recommend that everyone read Joe Andrew's letter to uncommitted superdelegates, it's very powerful.  A key line: "But as much as I respect and admire them both [President Clinton and Senator Clinton], it is clear that a vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote to continue this process, and a vote to continue this process is a vote that assists John McCain."  Another key line: "We simply cannot wait any longer, nor can we let this race fall any lower and still hope to win in November...The time to act is now."

I couldn't agree more.  Thank you Joe Andrew!


Comments



I certainly hope this is it... (ericy - 5/1/2008 12:40:59 PM)

I just don't see what point there is in stubbornly holding out.  To her credit, she put up a good fight - but sometimes that isn't enough.  Time to move on and get ready for the general.


Oh and BTW... (ericy - 5/1/2008 12:42:28 PM)

The Daily Show will be in Denver and St Paul during the two conventions.   I am hoping that there will be something to laugh about when we get to Denver.


Virginia Superdelegates (legacyofmarshall - 5/1/2008 1:41:43 PM)
If the floodgates really do open, just based on stereotypes... I think Obama will pick up a good amount of VA superdelegates.

The big ones I'm thinking of:

Dicky Cranwell: yeah he's country, sortof, from a strongly Clinton-supporting area, but like most Edwards supporters, I feel he wants something new, he wants Obama.

Jim Webb: He downright hates the Clintons as far as I know.  Remember back in 2000 when he campaigned for Bush and Allen?  He's the anti-politician, and if you look at the way Clinton and Obama work... Clinton is the big panderer, the one who says she's running for president because a sick guy in New Hampshire couldn't pay his hospital bill, while Obama simply goes straight to the point: we need a better healthcare system, etc.  I wouldn't be surprised if he's repulsed by both campaigns at this point, but probably leans Obama.

Lionell Spruill: A staunch Clinton supporter.  Now I don't want to overgeneralize and say that all black males support Obama but seriously - look at the exit polls, about 90% do, so he's certainly a minority in that regard.  That's not why I think he'd switch to Obama however.  I think:

a) his district voted 71% FOR OBAMA!  That's better than Obama did in CHICAGO!

b) I think Tim Kaine will lean on him, as I think the Governor will lean on any other Richmond-based politician who still hasn't pledged support to Obama.  I love Jen McClellan but really, put her in a political cage with Tim Kaine and see who wins - until November 2009 I put my money on the Governor.



Spruill started waffling publicly the day after the VA primary (Randy Klear - 5/1/2008 3:18:05 PM)
although he may have firmed up a bit since then. Still, he has one of the four DNC seats up for election at the state convention, and he has to look at hanging on to that. Supporting Clinton is not likely to hurt him in his district.


Funny (Vivian J. Paige - 5/1/2008 6:56:37 PM)
I understand that Spruill has firmly been in the Clinton camp since the beginning and will stay there as long as she's in the race. The other thing is that I hear that Spruill is getting letters from around the country asking him to remain firm in his support of Clinton. Not a single one has come, according to my sources, asking him to change his support.


I guess it depends on your definition. (Randy Klear - 5/1/2008 10:37:51 PM)
This Year, They Really Are Superdelegates (Virginian-Pilot, Feb. 21)

"Del. Lionell Spruill Sr. of Chesapeake endorsed Clinton then watched as Obama carried many of the legislator's South Norfolk precincts by large margins. Spruill still stands behind Clinton, but has said he will re-evaluate his support after the March 4 primaries in Texas and Ohio."

You may not call this waffling. I do.



No, Randy. (spotter - 5/2/2008 6:34:10 AM)
You must not have been paying attention.  Up is down.  Hillary is ahead.  In fact, she's on a roll.  More voters at the JJ Dinner?  Bad news.  Enthusiastic support of a Democratic candidate?  Unseemly.  In fact, downright rude.  The truth?  Doesn't matter to some people.

For what will it profit a man if he gains the whole world and forfeits his soul? Or what will a man give in exchange for his soul?



Phone Calls to VA Super Delegates (Virginia-Liberal - 5/1/2008 3:47:15 PM)
I just called Jim Webb's office (202-224-4024) encouraging the Senator to please come forward with an endorsement, soon.

Here's a list of uncommitted SD's
http://demconwatch.blogspot.co...

Maybe some constituent input might get the ball rolling.



Let Clinton go on her own terms (aznew - 5/1/2008 2:49:10 PM)
The movement to Obama was going to happen anyway after May 6, as long as:

1. Obama did not lose NC
2. Obama Made a decent showing (w/in 10) in IN.

Both those things seem likely to happen.

However, should this move toward Obama gather steam over the weekend, such that Tuesday's primaries are rendered moot, then Kos will be proven right and this will be porved to have been a disaster for Clinton. Otherwise, it is simply a vote that would have switched in a week anyway.

My guess is that many superdelegates, especially those who are current or former elected officials, don't care much what Andrew or any other party apparatchik  does, but Kos is much more expert than I.

Also, I think the issue now is really not whether Obama will win (that's been the case for a while), but how Clinton will leave.  I hate to draw the comparison, but like Richard Nixon in august of 1974, the more the party tries to force her to leave, the more she will be determined to fight it all the way.

On the other hand, let the next 2 primaries play out and let her decide to leave on her own terms, and it will be much better for the party.

My 2 cents.



The reality hasn't changed (arlingtoned - 5/1/2008 3:53:43 PM)
Clinton has been done since March 5.  However as long as people continue to give her money she will continue to run.  Candidates don't drop out because they lose in states they drop out because they can't pay their bills.  That reminds me it is time for everyone who wants this primary to be over to show Baracks fundraising strength by making a contribution.
https://donate.barackobama.com...


eloquent words about Obama (j_wyatt - 5/1/2008 4:25:57 PM)

Yesterday ... Barack Obama offered his response to the Jeremiah Wright narcissism tour. The reaction of the commentators has been mostly favorable (presumably excepting Fox, which I didn't watch) but also mostly of the opinion that Obama was late, perhaps too late. They may be right, tactically speaking-but not humanly speaking. And Obama was speaking very humanly indeed. He spoke without a text, from the heart and, as always, from the head. I don't mind that he decided to endure a couple of bad news cycles while he collected his thoughts and feelings. ...

In his Philadelphia speech, Obama had limned some of the experience of frustration and marginalization behind the kind of collective paranoia exemplified by Wright's sermon-bites and widespread among African-Americans but by no means confined to that community. Obama was ready to understand and ultimately to forgive but not to excuse.

This time, he was angry-but it was a sad anger, mixed with sorrowful determination. He was responding, this time, not only to a set of political and historical disagreements but also to a shocking personal breach. His measured performance only strengthened the conviction of many of us that his temperament is every bit as impressive, and as potentially valuable to the nation, as are his intelligence and decency. ...

Notes on politics, mostly

Priest-Ridden No More

Hendrik Hertzberg
The New Yorker Online
April 30, 2008

http://www.newyorker.com/onlin...



Its a tuff sell but somehow Obama may pull it off (Alter of Freedom - 5/1/2008 4:35:56 PM)
There is always a fine line when a politicians says he wants things to rise above "politics", especially in the case of Obama now that the Clintons have forced the Party into this perdicament in the first place. Unfortunately, Obama will have to come to grips with the fact that it is the "politics" of the situation that will have to be undergone to wrap it up. For Superdelegates to simply endorse Obama to "heal the rift" is pure politics anyway you cut it and any descision based on such to me completely diminishes the claim that the campaign is not rooted in the politics of the past as it kicked off in 2007.
I think the best thing Obama ever said was that Clinton should stay in as long as she wants.  


Obama is a Class Act (ub40fan - 5/1/2008 10:18:17 PM)
Screw the elitist mud-slingers. I've watch this guy as closely as one could and I'm just impressed with how he has handled himself. What a stunning contrast to Dubya the moron.

Don't get me started on Hillary.