With the North Carolina and Indiana primaries one week away and the polls indicating that the battle will continue between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton , the calls for a unity ticket that Lowell posted about last week will almost certainly increase in number and volume. As an Obama supporter I can say that I am not in favor of a unity ticket. However, no matter how many people call for Senators Obama and Clinton to join forctes, it simply will not happen. These are my top five reasons why (with an objective tone and looking at it from both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton's point of view).
1) A unity ticket doesn't really change the electoral math: In addition to the battleground states, Clinton supporters argue that states like Arkansas, Kentucky, and West Virginia are in play if she is the nominee. Obama supporters counter that he puts Virginia, Georgia, and Louisiana back on the board. The fact of the matter is people vote for the top of the ticket. Period. Its great to have a VP candidate who compliments the Presidential nominee, but their swing states will not "swing" to the other just because they are Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. These states are in play because the residents of those states would like to see Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama as PRESIDENT more than they normally would for a Democratic nominee. Perhaps the case could be made if Clinton or Obama were elected officials from a swing or wildcard state (such as Jim Webb, Governor Bill Richardson, or Ohio Governor Ted Strickland), but I'm pretty sure New York and Illinois are going blue this November.
2) Voters will not switch to John McCain or stay home in larger numbers in the absence of a unity ticket: There is absolutely no statistical data to back up the claim that the democratic base will not come out to support the democratic nominee and even less to suggest that they will support John McCain (who has radically different views on issues that democratic primary voters care about). The specifics of this years primary season don't change the fact that the vast majority of people who choose to vote in a primary vote in a general election as well.
One could argue that the first time voters who support Barack Obama in large numbers will stay home if he isn't the nominee or on the ticket. To that is the response that if he ended up not being on the ticket, Democrats will still have months to court these voters (they aren't going to the other side) and the Democratic nominee was still favored over the Republican nominee in 2008 long before this surge in voters. This seems to be Senator Clinton's mentality since she is running her campaign as though she is either not concerned about these voters staying home on Election Day or that she doesn't need them if she is the nominee.
3) A Unity Ticket is not an automatic win: If Barack Obama wants the white women and the 65 and over voters who overwhelmingly support Senator Clinton to vote for him in the fall, then he needs to take a proactive approach to courting them that is rooted in policy and personality. The same can be said for Senator Clinton and the newly registered and African American voters who support Senator Obama. A unity ticket does not release the Presidential nominee from the need to shore up support within the party. If my first response to an elderly undecided voter on why he or she should vote for Barack Obama was that Hillary Clinton is on the ticket, I would not be convinced that I had their vote. This does not mean that Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton won't win these demographics, only that a unity ticket won't do it.
4) Both candidates are weary of being VP in a unity administration: While we all get wrapped up in the electoral implications of a unity ticket, we rarely mention what a unity administration would be like. Neither candidate is particularly thrilled with the idea. Rowland Martin explains why ;
On Obama:
Obama doesn't want to be an LBJ. When Lyndon Baines Johnson was the vice president under President John F. Kennedy, he was ostracized and marginalized because of the influence of Robert F. Kennedy. With Bill Clinton serving as consigliere to a President Hillary Clinton, Obama would be on the outside looking in. He knows the likelihood of him doing anything of substance and having influence in a Clinton administration.
On Clinton:
She went through the behind-the-scenes battles with Al Gore when he was her husband's vice president. She's not interested in second fiddle and doesn't want to have to fight to be on the stage. For her, it's all or nothing. She's also 60, and being VP to Obama means that if he wins two terms, she'll be 68 running for the highest office in the land. It's not outside the realm of possibility, but she'll have to confront the skeptics who are snipping at the heels of Sen. John McCain, claiming he's too old..
5) They just don't want each other on the ticket: The Houston Chronicle wrote about this following the 21st debate of the primary season in Pennsylvania.
Both Obama and Clinton sidestepped when asked if they would place their rival on the ticket as vice presidential running mate in the fall."I think very highly of Senator Clinton's record, but I think it is premature at this point to talk about who the vice presidential candidates will be because we're still trying to determine who the nominee will be," Obama said.
Clinton was similarly noncommittal. "I'm going to do everything I possibly can to make sure that one of us takes the oath of office next January. I think that has to be the overriding goal," she said.
If either of them were really interested in a unity ticket, wouldn't it make sense to mention it at this point? From the point of few of the front runner, Obama could say he wants Clinton as his running mate and end this thing now if enough voters wanted the primary season and negative campaigning to end. Why doesn't he do this? The answer is actually the unofficial sixth reason why will not see a unity ticket; because he doesn't want to ask and she wouldn't accept.