Today Obama has 1719 delegates, counting 232 super delegates, and Clinton has 1586 counting 255 super delegates. He needs 306 more to win out right, and she needs 439 to win out right; the magic number is 2025.
There are about 233 undecided super delegates now.
detailed state by state (or territory) analysis of how this can play out...
On May 3rd, the US Territory of Guam will hold its caucus or election (does anyone know which it is?) - Guam's "primary" is open to ALL voters (not closed to just democrats). Its voters will not get to vote in November, but can certainly vote for the Democratic nomination. Guam has 4 pledged delegates and 5 super delegates, one of whom has already declared for Clinton and is already counted into her 1586 total...
No one has done polling on Guam that I can find (please help me correct this). So let's for game's sake assume that Clinton and Obama evenly split the popular vote or caucus and get 2 pledged delegates each, leaving 4 supers undecided... that brings us to 1721 Obama vs 1588 Clinton and ~233 undecided super delegates.
On May 6th, Indiana and North Carolina both hold primary elections. Indiana has 83 delegates (11 are super, 3 have declared for Obama, 5 for Clinton, and 4 are still unsure). A SurveyUSA poll on 4/23 says that Indiana may go 50% Obama, 45% Clinton, and 5% unsure... Let's assume a 3% Obama victory gives Obama 37 pledged delegates and Clinton gets 25 pledged delegates. In North Carolina there are several polls that appear to average on a 14% lead for Obama, so lets assume he gets 67 pledged delegates and she gets 50 pledged delegates. The total now stands at 1825 Obama vs 1677 Clinton, 233 undecided super delegates.
On May 13th, West Virginia will likely be a Clinton booster. Assume a 14% Clinton lead there, giving her 16 pledged delegates and him only 12 more. The total would be 1837 Obama vs 1691 Clinton.
On May 20th, Kentucky and Oregon will probably cancel each other out. Assume a 22% Clinton lead gives her +31 pledged from Kentucky, and him only +19; but assume a 7% Obama win in Oregon gives him +28 pledged and her only 24 from Oregon. That brings us to 1884 Obama vs 1746 Clinton, and damn, there is still likely to be no clear winner. At this point it only takes 141 of the remaining super delegates to end this race if they declare for Obama, an event I consider very unlikely, but possible.
On June 1st, Puerto Rico gets to have its say. Again, residents on the island get to vote for the nomination, but not in the general election; residents in the states can - but only with their host states. Puerto Rico has 65 delegates, 13 of them are supers, 2 declared for Obama, 3 for Clinton and 10 are undecided. There is very limited polling, but one poll indicates 50% for Clinton, 37% Obama, 13% undecided. Let's assume Clinton wins the territory with a 7% lead, that would give her 29 pledged vs only 24 for Obama. The total would now stand at 1908 Obama vs 1775 Clinton, and it only takes half the remaining 233 super delegates (117) to declare for Obama for him to win the nomination... Now it is getting more probable; though still unlikely...
The last primary action is on June 3rd, when Montana and South Dakota hold their primary elections. The last Montana poll was last year, so no one really knows... lets assume a 50/50 split just to play the game... that adds 8 pledged delegates to each candidate. South Dakota's Dakota Wesleyan University has a poll that suggests Obama has about a 10% lead in the state... let's assume that holds and Obama gets 8 more pledged delegates and Clinton gets 6 more. The total is now 1924 Obama vs 1789 Clinton. Ouch... still no clear winner. Obama would only need 101 of the 233 super delegates to win. Clinton would need 236 of the remaining 233... oh - if this plays out like this, she cannot win the nomination without going to the convention. At this point the super delegates have a choice: allow the Republicans to continue gaining momentum while there are no more outstanding races, or declare for one or the other candidate. If only 101 super delegates (43% of the remaining 233) declare for Obama, it's over in the first week in June and we can move on with defeating McCain.
I really hope this happens as early as possible because I think it is time we start crushing McCain. Yes it is nice if everyone gets a chance to vote in every state and territory... but Obama has raised many times as much as Clinton, and it is less and less likely she can win this by any means.
When I composed this yesterday, I forgot about the leaked spreadsheet from early in February, but here is a reminder:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Obamas_projections.html
It is amazing how well those early predictions are holding up today... and how close the polls are bearing out the Obama campaign's projections...
PA did not deliver a knockout blow to Clinton, but that was pretty optimistic and unlikely anyway. Slow and steady this campaign will be won. Clinton is putting up suck a fight because she knows that the next president will be a Democrat. People are pissed and they are going to vote for change in November.
RealClearPolitics has Obama leading in North Carolina by only 10% now, so I now predict Obama will snag 64 pledged delegates to Clinton's 51 (which is still better than the leaked memo predicted: 61 and 54).
RealClearPolitics has Clinton leading by a tiny 2.2% in Indiana, but I am skewing that 3.5% in Clinton's favor because of well known racism in Southern Indiana; so call it for Clinton by 5.7% and she gets 38 delegates to his 34 (which is a reverse of the leaked spreadsheet which had him getting 39 to her 33)... I wonder if the Obama campaign knows something I am missing? I expect the Indiana polling to continue to be all over the place for the next week, so I am not locking this one down yet... whatever RCP has the last day, then skew a few points to Clinton will be final prediction.
We are still on target to basically split the remaining 408 pledged delegates right down the middle, and for enough supers to declare for Obama to win in June.