I know a lot of you don't like Robert Novak, and neither do I. Having said that, I think when he's got his analyst hat on he's often right on the money. For instance, I just received this:
1. Despite her impressive win in Pennsylvania, Sen. Hillary Clinton (N.Y.) still faces a very difficult path to the nomination. It is impossible for her to win more elected delegates than Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.). It is possible that she could yet win a majority of the composite popular primary vote, but probably not without tallying the outlawed Michigan and Florida votes.
I completely agree with this. For the rest of Novak's analysis, please see the "flip."
2. Clinton's more feasible path-though very difficult-is to convince the super-delegates, by winning the remaining primaries, that she has the momentum. The two most important future primaries are North Carolina and Indiana May 6, but North Carolina looks nearly impossible, considering that half of the state's 2.5 million registered voters are African-Americans.
I agree with this too. If Clinton could somehow win North Carolina, Indiana, and let's say Oregon, I think then she'd have quite a case to make to the superdelegates. But what are the chances of that happening?
3. That leaves Clinton with the hope that super-delegates will see Obama as a loser against Sen. John McCain (Ariz.). The attacks by her and husband Bill Clinton have been counterproductive, Obama's damage has been self-inflicted-especially the "bitter" speech in San Francisco.
I tend to agree with this as well, although it wasn't "bitter" per se but "cling" (to guns, religion, etc.) that was the comment that really hurt Obama, in my opinion. Also, the fact that he made the comments to a wealthy, liberal San Francisco audience. The optics simply were not good at all.
4. To avoid such mistakes, Obama appears to be tamping down his rhetoric, as in his defeat statement from Evansville, Ind., that sounded like a victory statement. It also explains his backing out of a North Carolina debate. Obama would like to coast to the nomination.
Interesting if true, but I've seen what can happen when you try to "run out the clock" in basketball and other sports. Usually, nothing good. We'll see.
5. Obama's difficulties and the prolongation of the Clinton-Obama confrontation have lifted Republicans from their slough of despondence to optimism about the presidential election. The transformation from deep pessimism to overriding optimism is such that McCain is privately warning supporters that once the nomination is decided and supporters of the losing Democratic candidate return to the fold, he will fall behind badly (though, McCain hopes, temporarily).
This is the big question: how badly damaged are the Democrats by this prolonged and bitter nomination contest, and how likely is it that the party can unite again behind its nominee once they are selected? Also, how much time will that take, and will it require a "unity ticket" with Hillary Clinton as running mate or what? Finally, how much time does the party need to get its act together? Can it afford to wait until late August/early September to agree on a nominee? I have strong doubts about that.
Hillary is now spinning yesterday such that because she scared folks away from Obama, then he is "unelectable." Talk about a self-fulfilling and self-aggrandizing prophesy. The superdelegates ought to give her some tough love and tell her to knock it off. This garbage is hurting the party and the country.
It is clear whom the GOP thinks is most electable. In NC they have an add designed to "Willie Horton" Obama. Thanks, Hillary, you showed the way by pulling the same stuff in PA.
I guess this is the beginning of the "we are ahead because we are winning the popular votes" strategy.
Hillary has been very disingenuous about the agreeemnt about MI and FL. She violated her agreement by campaigning in MI, staying on the ballot when Barack followed the rules. In an effort to unfairly advantage herself, she underhandedly arrived in FL the night before the election (having promised not to campaign there). This is all too Rovian to be believed. And now she harps on about MI and FL.
Unprecedented numbers showed up for caucuses. So what? That doesn't mean they shouldn't count. That would practically eliminate a number of states who DID play by the rules.
I personally hate the caucus system. I think we should have a national primary in or around April of presidential election years. Everyone should vote on the same day. The candidates should have to show up in every state. None of us should be written off as we nearly were in VA (minimal presence by both candidates). I have written about that both here and elsewhere. But it advantaged the Contonistas and Democratic insiders for decades. Not anymore.
As best as I can tell there has been very little out of Hillary that's been original or inspiring. The campaign succeeds when it goes negative and spins the idea that it's more electable in the fall and is the campaign attracting new voters .... Dah?!! What the F*$%k??!?
Hillary is a failure with Independents and inspiring to the Republican attack machine. She's been vetted?? She has the experience?? She's tougher??
No she's through! She doesn't have enough to win out right and the next few weeks will underscore that.
Dick Morris (Bill's old consultant) came to a similar analysis as Novak and it's about time Super Delegate Democrats take heed. Hillary "Too Little Too Late"
I suggest that when the republicans start throwing fireballs at Obama , someone should point out that mccain is the "Indochinese candidate"
Years as a prisoner in vietnam, Elderly Mom still alive,
( Im just saying...)
The ultimate problem with this is how you quantify this problem. Is it simply the number of people who say they would only accept HRC? Or are there more people who provide a milder response, but still would not vote for Obama? The only reason I am even interested in this point at all is the implication it has on the general election. Can closeted racists costs Democrats the election in the fall?
I also wonder why this wasn't a discussion point for Obama's losses in Ohio and now Pennsylvania.