It is clear that Democratic candidates who want fair debates should refuse to debate anyone unless they are moderated by decent moderators with a proven track record for staying focused on the pertinent issues... like the League of Women Voters. The League has an fantastic record, and only people afraid of a fair debate would refuse their moderation.
The over-vaunted "double digit" win for Clinton does not really change much. The bad news is this slug-fest of an election will go on through at least May 6th, and possibly longer now... the good news is that the primary will go on through at least May 6th and possibly even longer now.
Yes that is both good and bad. The bad is it means more free ride time for John McSame. The good news is that more state's voters get to participate in the most important primary season in my memory. It is good news for the people of Indiana and North Carolina, and possibly good news for West Virginia, Kentucky, and Oregon. Possible decision points are now May 7th, May 21st, and June 4th... (those are each the day after primary elections with a fair number of delegates, though none have as many as PA does). Obama is still the man to beat because he has accumulated 1,705 delegates versus Clinton's 1,575.
According to the New York Times there are 227 delegates between now and May 6th, an additional 164 delegates between then and May 20th, and an additional 110 between then and June 3rd. That is only 501 remaining delegates in the remaining states. Either candidate would need 2,025 delegates. Do the math... It is very unlikely that Clinton can win this on delegate counts, she'd have to win nearly all the remaining ones. It is now dodgy wether Obama can win this on delegate counts, he needs only 320 more; but that means averaging 63% of the remaining contests... the Pennsylvania disappointment probably means that this is going all the way to the August convention. It means that an endorsement from Edwards really matters.
One thing that baffles me is how can so many allegedly "blue collar" workers vote for Clinton? That is clearly a vote against their own economic self-interest. Edwards should be their candidate of choice, and I can see them not being enthusiast either Clinton or Obama, but the news is saying they are opting for Clinton. I am scratching my head in confusion.
Interesting comparison, probably invalid for dozens of reasons, but... over 2,300,000 registered as Democrats and voted in yesterday's primary election... For a primary, turnout was very high; but several workers were saying it was like a general election. Was it?
2004 Presidential Election per Wikipedia:
| State: | Bush: | Kerry: | Nader: | Badnarik: | Peroutka: | Cobb: |
| Pennsylvania | 2,793,847 | 2,938,095 | 2,656 | 21,185 | 6,318 | 6,319 |
That means that in the 2004 general election, more people voted for John Kerry than voted for both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama yesterday. It means that more voted for George Bush than voted for both candidates yesterday. It means that despite registering nearly 600,000 new Democratic voters this cycle, the number of people who actually vote Democratic in a general election was under-represented. Some sources say that 52% of registered Democrats voted, if that is true then there must be roughly 4.5 million registered Democrats in Pennsylvania at this time... where were the other 48% yesterday? Where will they be in November?
I think Pennsylvania is a pretty solidly Democratic state either way (which is good news).
Pennsylvania Returns with 99.44 % reporting, give:
Obama 1,029,672 (45.412645673%)
Clinton 1,237,696 (54.587345327%)
Simple arithmatic says there is only a 9.174699654% difference...
We can round that up to 9.2%
I wonder what the remaining .56% of precincts will report...
The good news is her margin was low enough that her delegate pick-up looks to have been held to 14. Chuck Todd last night was estimating between 14 and 18 so she came in on the low end of expectations.
What does have be dumb-founded this morning are the suburban collar counties around Philadelphia. It appears Obama's typical strength in well to do suburbs basically collapsed yesterday in PA. Statewide, Clinton carried the suburban vote by a margin of 51% to 49%, making a statewide win for Obama impossible.
Obama carried the two western counties to the west of Philly, Chester and Delaware counties, but only carried them by a total of 18,00 votes, which Clinton easily off-set with her win in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh), which Clinton won by 27,000 votes.
Obama lost Mongomery county, surprisingly, by 2,000 votes.
But the big shocker last night was Buck county. Clinton blew Obama's doors off in the primary, 63% to 37% and her margin of victory was just shy of 29,000 votes. Her percentage point win in Bucks county is almost three times the percentage lead she won the entire state by.
So, any thoughts, ideas as to what happened in Bucks county? Chuck Todd on First Read seems to have been surprised by this as well but did not offer any reasons why this occurred.
And Bucks county, home of the world famous "Sesame Place" amusement park, seems tailor made for Obama. Acording to the U.S. Census Bureau, Bucks county has fewer residnts over the age of 65 when compared to the state as a whole. Over 31% of its residents have a college degree versus 22% statewide. The median household income in Bucks county is $64,606 versus $43,714 statewide. And whites make up over 92% of the population in Bucks county. So, you have a population that is overwhelmingly white, well educated and has a high median income versus the rest of Pennsylvania, and they voted in big numbers for Clinton.
One other problem - Jewish voters picked Clinton statewide by a margin of 62% to 38%. The effect of this was obvious in Philadelphia, holding Obama's percentage in Philadelphia to 65%. Could this have been a factor in the burbs?
Obama did poorly with working class voters, especially Catholics who fall into this category. But the irony is, the two suburban counties Obama did carry, Chester and Delaware counties, have larger working class populations than Montgomery and Bucks counties.
Was the institutional support for Clinton in PA just too much for Obama to overcome? Maybe, but I think that is just too simplistic an answer.
Any thoughts?
Fear is not productive.
Fear does not lead to new ideas nor innovation.
Fear does not help people in need.
Fear is not.
20-30 years ago McLean, Vienna, Annandale and Fairfax were the ultra conservative districts. That has gradually moved further and further out.
Are those parts of Philly seeing the same trends? I do not know, but it is easy to imagine.