PA Primary: 9pm Update

By: TheGreenMiles
Published On: 4/22/2008 9:00:51 PM

This is how dedicated I am to bringing you the full picture of primary coverage: I'm watching Fox News. You're welcome.

This is the Fox News coverage team: Brit Hume, Chris Wallace, Bill Kristol, Fred Barnes and Karl Rove. I am not making this up. Oh, and Juan Williams. Fox News called it for Hillary at 8:45pm. If you wouldn't call it at 8pm, why call it at 8:45pm with just 1% of votes counted? 

This is the big debate on all networks right now: Was Obama was really trying to win Pennsylvania? Seems a little silly - if Obama had given up PA, why would he have outspent Clinton by millions of dollars?

How does it look for Obama to be in Indiana tonight? Smart move to play to future states or does it look like he's already back on his heels after an anticipated a Hillary win in PA?

At the end of the second period, Caps and Flyers now tied at 2-2. Third period will decide the series.

UPDATE 9:06pm: ABC and CNN call it for Hillary. Clinton up 54-46 with 7% in.

UPDATE 9:30pm: 18% in, Clinton up 53-47. AP exit poll:

[O]ne in 10 voting in Tuesday's primary had changed their party registration since the start of 2008 so they would be eligible to vote in the Democratic race. The contest was open only to registered Democrats. About half the party-switchers had been registered Republicans, while the rest had been unaffiliated with either party or were voting for the first time in Pennsylvania.

Most of those new Democrats were mobilized to come out for Obama, and they were nearly one-fifth of Obama's supporters. Even the former Republicans favored Obama over Clinton, largely invalidating rumors that Republicans would vote strategically in the Democratic primary in support of Clinton, hoping she would be easier to defeat in November.

UPDATE 10:03 pm by Lowell: Ugh, this is a bad night.  The Caps just lost in overtime...sigh.

UPDATE 10:06 pm by Lowell: With 51% of precincts reporting, it's Clinton 54%-Obama 46%.

UPDATE 10:20 pm by Lowell: With 66% of precincts reporting, it's Clinton 54%-Obama 46%.

 



 

 


Comments



Obama in Indiana (Evan M - 4/22/2008 9:07:19 PM)
Obama in Indiana is a good move for him. The critique on Obama from the MSM after tonight will be that he can't deliver the "knockout punch" to the Clinton campaign. Going to Indiana anticipates that critique. He has NC pretty safely, and is leading in Indiana, he's going to try to push his lead in IN and deliver the knockout blow in the next couple weeks.


The Spin Doctors (ub40fan - 4/22/2008 9:48:24 PM)
... will put out a tornado's worth of hot air about what this all means... and yet it's relatively meaningless.  What matters when all the primaries are done (sorry Michigan and Florida - your politicians screwed up badly) ... there will be one person with the most elected delegates, the most states won and the popular vote. As close as it may be the person who owns those categories will be the nominee because there is no other measure.

The super delegates will finally earn their pay .... but to vote against the electorate would be suicide for the Democratic Party.  Hillary is tenacious ... good for her .... but if she thinks people (Super Delegates) will vote against a "fair and square" contest that leaves Obama the leader without the nomination....  then Hillary and the democrats that follow her will need a huge reality check.

That reality is Obama is their future and it's time to move on.



Way to take one for the team... (Terry85 - 4/22/2008 10:02:06 PM)
"I'm watching Fox News. You're welcome."

LOL.



Grind, grind, grind... (Kindler - 4/22/2008 10:05:45 PM)
Where it stands right now -- 53%-47% Clinton -- this is yet another inconclusive primary in a long series.

I feel like we're in the middle of the friggin' Civil War, grinding battle after grinding battle, and Ulysses Grant has not yet turned up.

I have to agree with the pundits who say that Obama has to find his knockout punch and deliver it.  This race has just gone on too long.  Simply winning by attrition (a few more votes and delegates here or there) is not inspiring, and we really need some inspiration as the Republicans rev up their Swift Boat engines.

I don't want to see Obama go too negative, but I think he needs to channel John Edwards a little, with a populist appeal that can get the white lower middle class folks rallying to him.  



Great metaphor on Grant... (Lowell - 4/22/2008 10:07:17 PM)
...or was it an analogy? :)


Well... (Kindler - 4/22/2008 10:15:05 PM)
...I'd be a little scared if he actually showed up!


The knockout punch has already happened (Ron1 - 4/22/2008 10:40:53 PM)
In a democracy, winning by 5% means you win (I'm talking delegates here).

I refuse to play this silly 'expectations' game where the goalposts are continually moved. If only the rules were different ... then it would be a different contest.

They have different natural coalitions, but one coalition is marginally but significantly larger, and there's no way for Hillary to remedy that.

As for your Civil War analogy, (and this might make Dan's head explode), Hillary is Lee/the South, and Barack is Grant. February 5 was Gettysburg -- by deciding upon her strategy for the race as Lee did at Gettysburg, Hillary ensured she could never win. We are currently at the siege of Petersburg, or maybe even the sacking of Richmond. The only question is where Appamattox is -- hopefully in North Carolina and Indiana. But even if it's June 2nd, Barack will win 0regon, South Dakota, and Montana, and she'll win Kentucky and West Virginia, and then that'll be that.  



Brilliant analysis. (Lowell - 4/22/2008 10:46:06 PM)
Fascinating.


Well, yeah, exactly -- (Kindler - 4/22/2008 10:46:07 PM)
It feels like a bloody, endless mess when you're in the middle of it...


Who's Lincoln (Lowell - 4/22/2008 10:51:18 PM)
by the way?


I refuse to compare Barack to Lincoln (Ron1 - 4/22/2008 10:56:20 PM)
I know how that play ends (literally), and the ending sucks.

BTW, my Civil War analogy was just a riff, more playful than anything. I do realize Grant was still marauding out west when Gettysburg took place :)

But, Kindler, I definitely get your point.



the 8% spread is holding (j_wyatt - 4/22/2008 10:16:02 PM)
Earlier it was bouncing around between 6 and 8%, but with 56% of precincts reporting and the vote approaching 1.2 million, the 8% spread has stuck and is looking like that will be her victory margin.

Absent a double digit victory and with her campaign running on fumes, is it reasonable to think that perhaps Senator Clinton will finally do the right thing?  Unlikely, given the deep roots of her sociopathy.



big night for clinton!! (notwaltertejada - 4/22/2008 10:45:31 PM)
8 points is better than the polls predicted!! what an exciting night she may be able to pull this nomination off after all :-D


no, she was supposed to win by 20... (lgb30856 - 4/22/2008 10:48:06 PM)
so bye bye hill


um no thats bs (notwaltertejada - 4/22/2008 10:54:45 PM)
the average poll had her up by for or 5 points.
she just pulled even further ahead to 10 points!!!
shes really cutting into his lead in the overall popular vote too!


My metaphor is football (pvogel - 4/22/2008 11:34:09 PM)
and tonight, Hillary completed a nice hail mary, but the reciever was tackled  short of the goal line and never made it out of bounds.
Obama continues to run out the clock.


Many voting machine problems... (Rebecca - 4/23/2008 1:11:02 AM)
And no ability to audit or recount. Faith based elections. What was really bizarre was when the spread went to 55% to 44% and stayed there for a couple of hours. Back when they used to count paper ballots this would never have happened. I'm old enough to remember that. This is not normal. Any thinking person should realize that we are dealing with the unthinkable.


actually the way the vote came in was counter-intuitive (notwaltertejada - 4/23/2008 2:30:01 AM)
the urban vote in philadelphia was actually counted fast and came in early. clinton trounced obama in the rest of the state and thats why the spread went up to double digits and stayed there.  


One of the nice things about a prolonged primary season (snolan - 4/23/2008 8:03:47 AM)
Is that all eyes are on some of these state's voting procedures for the first time...

It is interesting to see how voting process differs from state to state, and it disturbs me that the fate of our nation is sometimes in the hands of voting practices in some states that are less than fair...

I am not singling Pennsylvania out here, there are several states with questionable practices, it just seems very odd to me having grown used to voting in Virginia (which has it's own problems).

How about some national voting laws?