It's so tempting to dive into the usual analysis and poll reading and so on with this primary.  Since it's been so built up and that's just what we all want to do with big elections.

But. Making predictions and analyzing the PA primary is activity that suggests that the PA primary actually matters in some way. Which it doesn't. Obama is the nominee. Maybe if Clinton got, like, 80% then that could change things. But she obviously won't.

Obama has long since shut Clinton down via the delegate math. Her attacks against him and attempts to destroy him have totally failed among Democrats. Super delegates continue to break for Obama. There will be no coup. Florida and Michigan are settled and done.

PA does not matter. It doesn't even matter what the media thinks or what public perception is because it all comes down to delegate math that can't be spun into submission. Thus picking the PA race apart and making predictions seems like a totally pointless activity.  

No offense intended to those who enjoy doing so. I just don't see the point in pulling out the precinct maps and looking at historic turn-out rates and registration data and all the rest when it doesn't even matter what happens today.

:)

...if Obama is close enough to make HRC drop out.  I agree that Obama is going to be the nom [short of a miracle for HRC] but I'd really like this thing to be over and Senator Clinton stop acting like a republican stratagist, giving them all their talking points for the general.

Oil is nearing $120 a barrel. With John McCain's plan to solve our energy problems consisting of pandering on cheap gas, could it be an opening for the Dem nominee?

That's less than $3/fill-up.  Thanks Grandpa!  See you in the cheese line.

pandering from the Democratic candidates.  The idea of using the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to tweak prices down a bit is also really, really stupid.

to temporarily feel some relief and feel a little better than they do about the current regime...

Clinton 52% to 48% for Obama.  Please get on the phones and help turn out the vote.

http://www.drudgereport.com/

that exit poll is correct.  At this point, though, my confidence in exit polls is close to zero.  Anyway, you're right, there are 2 more hours so call everyone you know to vote for Obama!

when you go inside internals and compare to SUSA completed Sunday, it makes sense.  The changes in demographics seem to match.   I am assuming that SUSA understated AA participation, which they had a 14%.

Some examples  -  exits have AA at 92-8, versus 85-12 in SUSA

exits have seniors 61-38 versus 62-32 in SUSA

you will read in exits that late deciders are 58-42 Clinton.  But that includes anyone who decided in last 7 days, and thus at least half of that was probably accounted for already in SUSA poll.  

We do not know how many of people in exit poll voted on provisionals, and their ballots won't count.  There has been high use of provisional in Philadelphia, which is NOT good for  Obama.  My guess is 1st time voters who showed up w/o picture id.  

If there are not too many first time voters disqualified, and those disqualified are not heavily for Obama, I think the final margin is quite probably in the single digits.  

We'll have to see what the shape of the late turnout is like.

Hillarys ground  game is terrible. All she has is negativity.
She has to complete Hail mary passes, and buy off the  reffs.

Obama has to fall on the ball, play out the clock.

Not everybody will be happy no matter the outcome,  but either candidate on their worst day is preferable to Mccain on his best day

I am reading that there are above average problams with the voting machines in the black neighborhoods of Phili. I hope they get extra time to vote. Where is aznew to accuse me of being a conspiracy theorist?

There is a long and continuing record in this country of denying African Americans the right to vote. It used to be poll tests and taxes, now it is subpar technology and equipment.

But you're still a conspiracy theorist. :)