He should have raised a bundle this quarter and buried Feder in cash on hand. Now she's even. This could cost him...

Feder and Wolf raised roughly the same amount last cycle, and Feder lost by 16 points. She needs a huge advantage in cash to make the race competitive, not a press release announcing that she raised $2,000 more than Wolf this quarter.

Voters are in a powerful mood for change this cycle.  This is a presidential year and turnout is going to be through the roof. Frank Wolf has 2 more years of rubber stamping George W. Bush. Judy Feder is well ahead of where she was at this point in the cycle 2 years ago by almost any metric.  And the district is trending blue 1-2 points per year.

That's how.

Congrats on those fundrasing numbers - they are impressive by any standard.

I think Feder's biggest problem this fall could actually be turnout.  The 10th CD has one of the highest rates in Virginia of voters who vote in presidentail years but do note vote in mid-term elections.  

In the 10th CD, turnout in 2004 was 73.91% versus 52.61% in 2006.  Using registration numbers from 2006, there were 88,248 voters who cast ballots in 2004 who did not vote in th 2006 mid-term election.  And Wolf has a big leg up with these voters so Judy's campaign really needs to target these voters.  It could really be the key to winning.

The fall election will be a change election but I would not count on that to win this district.  2006 was also a change election but if you look at the results of the Senate race, Webb carried this district over Allen by a little by about 2,800 votes.  However, Feder ran behind Webb by about 22,000 votes.  I attribute this to Wolf's superior name recognition - but again, that could be an issue again for Feder's campaign with those voters who only vote in presidential elections.  

If Judy can keep pulling the dollars, I think she can win this race.  I actually believe the district is turning bluer faster than you think, due to increased voter registration rates in Loudon, Fairfax and Prince William counties, all of which are turning blue.  Obviously the key to winning this race is to build majorities for Judy in Fairfax, Loudon and Prince William counties and offset Wolf's strength in the western part of the district, all of which is doable.  

Voter registration could be the key here, especially registering women who are unmarried.  Women's Voices.WomenVote is an organiztion that works to register umarried women.  The group is headed up by Page Gardner, who resides in Virginia.  Perhaps it might be worth speaking with this organization.  

http://www.wvwv.org/        

If the district is turning "blue" faster than most people think, Wolf could be in big trouble.  Judy got 41% of the vote last time. If the district has trended blue 2 points per year, that would get her to 45% right away, not even counting the extra money and huge turnout in a presidential year. If the district has trended blue 3 points per year, that gets her to 47%, again without even getting into the other stuff.  Finally, if the district has trended blue 4 points per year or greater, Judy's pretty much right there neck and neck with Frank Wolf.  So, how fast do you think the district's trending blue?

Page Gardner does great work and is already a supporter! We'll be working to register unmarried women and all sorts of folks accross the 10th to take advantage of what should be a tremendous turnout in November.  

Turnout will be much higher than 2006 just because this is a presidential race.
Higher turnout would ordinarily be split evenly, but with everyone so down on Bush this could add a few points to Judy's tally...

Turnout will be higher than 2004 (any other presidential race) because Obama inspires people who never voted before to get involved, and to vote - that adds points to Judy's tally with no effort at all from her.  Several points is my guess.

Ordinarily, an incumbent like Wolf who has a reputation for constituent services (certainly has not helped me, ever, but neighbors tell me he is decent) would enjoy a comfortable lead unchallenged; but this district has grown enormously in the past few years, and grown with people moving into the district from elsewhere.  The new arrivals do not know Frank Wolf, he's done nothing for them.  I think this erodes his normal incumbent advantage, not a lot - but some.  This is the converse of what happened in 2007 where the new arrivals did not know what a complete sideshow Bob Marshall is...  

This year is the big opportunity, and I think Judy's chances are pretty good.

BTW - I know nothing of Mike Turner, he may be a great candidate too - but Judy has momentum, people already know her, and she's already raising money.

coatails is what could get Feder in trouble. Lets face it, McCain will do well in Virginia including the western parts of Wolf's district. Feder could not even come close to riding Webb's coattails in the district in a change year so this is a very poor idea. Hoping for new arrivals is another bad idea. This talk is what cost Feder in 2006. The same exact talking points. Every candidate has to win on their merits not hoping for some miracle wave.

Feder needs to go out with specific plans not just academic ideals and appear to be a moderate voice in the district. High minded progressive speak is the exact reason sideshow Bob Marshall won rather handily the past several cycles.

No one doubts Feder's awesome fundraising ability, but it takes more than big numbers to close this large of a gap. Its a shame there is not a better district geographically for a great progressive like Feder.  

Do you have to concern troll on every thread involving either Judy or Tom? The only time you comment is to say "Wow! thaT's great, but I think [insert Tom or Judy] is too liberal to beat [insert Goode or Wolf]".

The site certainly has enough cheerleaders. What's wrong with a dose of realism?

reason I cannot complain about the partisan redistricting, specifically for these two seats?

Feder especially is cream of the crop top Congressional quality in a very tough district. Feder can  win if all the pieces fall in place but I do think she needs to make herself look moderate.

I don't think Periello can win in Goode's district.  

but he WILL win if we all start pitching in and stop talking about how he "can't win."

Don't get me wrong - she's a very hard worker and will be working non-stop to win this district away from Wolf.  If I gave the impression she can cruise to victory, I must have written my comment poorly; because that was not my intent.

I was merely pointing out that a presidential election has vastly different dynamics than a congressional only race, and that one with Obama at the top of the ticket is different still.

I totally forgot that Mark Warner will also be on that ticket - but that will have an impact too.  I like and voted for Webb, but you have to admit that Warner motivates a lot more people.  It is easy to see how Judy can get a 4-6% bump just because of the ticket including Obama and Warner....  the rest she'll have to make up on her own.  She will work to do that, I am certain.

2006 Democratic Ticket in the 10th:
Webb for Senator
Feder for Congress
A really stupid amendment proposal to the VA Constitution

2008 Democratic Ticket in the 10th:
Obama for President
Mark Warner for Senate
Feder for Congress

Which do you think will motivate more Democrats?