As comments to the recent thread about Tom Perriello's successful fundraising in the first quarter showed, there is a significant contingent of knowledgeable observers of the VA-05 political scene who, to put it mildly, think Perriello has a better shot at becoming Miss America than at becoming this district's next congressman.
A common theme running through these assessments is that Tom Perriello is a great candidate, but that a Democratic candidate from Albemarle County cannot win the necessary votes in the mysterious, rural portion of this district known as Southside -- unknown and unknowable to outsiders -- to carry the day.
It's a common refrain: Anyone who thinks Perriello has a shot in this district "doesn't know Southside."
Negativity in the form of "it can't be done" always holds the risk of becoming a self-fulfilling prophesy; after all, why commit money, time and emotional resources to a candidacy, however noble, that is doomed to failure?
So before I went any further in supporting Perriello, I thought I would take some time and actually look at the performance of Democratic candidates in the district over the past several election cycles -- the data, not the anecdotal evidence -- and see whether there was a reasonable and attainable victory scenario for a candidate like Tom Perriello.
Besides discovering that I have way too much free time on my hands, I also concluded that there clearly is such a scenario.
(more on the flip)
The idea that Virgil Goode is "unbeatable" (except by an equally conservative Southside candidate) is steeped in several myths that are taken for granted about the sprawling Fifth District that the data contradicts.
The Myths
Myth #1: Virgil is extremely popular among Southside voters.
This myth is based on various assumptions about Southside voters, the most pernicious being that they will vote based on identity politics rather than on self-interest or shared values.
There is certainly some superficial support in the data for this. In 2006, while Goode handily defeated Al Weed 60%-40%, the margin in Southside was roughly 66%-34%.
But this could hardly be considered a show of "love" for Virgil. Turnout in Southside in 2006 was 51%, meaning Virgil actually got the support of only 34% of registered voters in Southside.
In the presidential election year of 2004 -- clearly the pinnacle of GOP strength since 1994 -- Goode trounced Weed 64%-36% in the district at large, and 70%-30% in Southside. With a voter turnout of about 72% in the district, Goode captured 50% of registered Southside voters, a decent showing, but probably as good as it will ever get.
Myth # 2: Southside voters will only support candidates like Virgil who share their backgrounds.
I've got two words for you: Tim Kaine. Kaine took 44% of the Southside vote in 2005, 10 points better than Al Weed was able to muster the following year. As a result, Kaine was able to carry the district 50%-48%.
Myth # 3: To win the district requires a huge vote in the Charlottesville area.
Whether this is a myth depends upon how one defines "huge." You certainly need to carry the area, which consists of the city of Charlottesville and the counties of Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene and Nelson.
But you don't need an unreachable percentage.
Tim Kaine's 44% in Southside in 2005, for example, required a 63% vote in the C'ville area to reach a majority in the district. By comparison, Al Weed won 54% and Jim Webb 57% in 2006.
Most of the vote (70%) in the C'ville area is in the city of Charlottesville and Albemarle County. Looking at only those two jurisdictions, Kaine got 66% of the vote in 2005, compared to Weed's 59% in 2006.
Conclusions
While this data suggests that Tom Perriello can beat Virgil Goode, it certainly doesn't predict whether he will or not. Approximating Tim Kaine's numbers, however, to carry the district is not a stretch for Perriello. In fact, because Perriello comes from Albemarle, he could conceivably do better than Kaine there, eliminating some pressure to reach 44% in Southside.
The math works approximately as follows: every 2.5 points in the C'ville area equals one point in Southside. Thus, if Perriello could carry 70% of C'ville, he would need only 42% from Southside. Were he to carry 75% of C'ville, then he would need only 40% of Southside. (NOTE: turnout would obviously affect these numbers)
There are several reasons to think these numbers in some combination are within Perriello's reach:
1. Mark Warner's and, presumably, Barack Obama's coattails.
2. The unpopularity of George W. Bush.
3. A poor economy creating a difficult year for incumbents.
4. Perriello's strong fundraising.
5. A strong thirst for change.
6. Perriello's ability to appeal to the values of Southside voters.
In sum, please do not listen to the voices that say a Democratic victory in VA-05 is not possible. They mean well, but they are wrong.
The data proves it can be done, and conditions seem to be lining up in our favor. We should not allow negativity or political analysis based on gut instinct rather than facts cause us to let this opportunity pass us by.
http://www2.sbe.virginia.gov/w...
I'm not saying that VA-05 is impossible for Perriello -- he's a great candidate -- this definitely helps.
Realistically though Perriello will need have a more favorable split in Southside than Weed got in 2006 -- e.g. in the 45 percent range -- especially if the presidential election year turnout is in the 70 percent range (which is very high). It definitely helps if he can boost turnout elsewhere.
Otherwise a very good diary. I don't disagree with your conclusion or the other myths -- #1 though I think is a harder one to spin. The bottom line is not that 51 percent turnout is low, but that Perriello needs to improve upon Weeds' loss margin in Southside in order to win the seat. Based on the placement of his campaign offices, I get the sense that his re-election team is making its case based on realities on the ground.
While Virgil and other Virginia Republicans moved further and further to the right, Democrats have shown voters the ability to govern wisely and to work toward consensus.
Tom Perriello does have a realistic chance at winning this November because VA-05 Democrats have been kept busy building for the future and, as a result, he has a base of support to work from.
But there are some political and cultural trends that favor Tom Periello this year that were not in as strong play in past election cycles.
The first is the growth of a moderate, frequently young, evangelical movement that has gotten tired of the wedge issues of the religious right. They are more focused on issues like economic justice and environmental stewardship than the culture wars.
In addition, we are in an economic downturn - it's officially a recession - and more and more people are talking about issues like wage inequality, economic fairness, and the erosion of health and pension benefits for the middle class.
We are also in an enviromental crisis, with the right wing in denial over global warming.
The fact that Tom can couch all these issues in religious and moral terms will work powerfully for him. This is the year to really challenge Virgil Goode and Tom Periello is definitely the right candidate to do it.
The business about drilling in ANWAR is frequently turned into a patriotism thing and never analysed for the 10-year boondogle to profit oil companies even more that it is... self-righteous rural SUV/pickup drivers too often fall for the idea they can ignore Peak Oil at their whim.
Despite the fast changing demographics in Chesapeake, as well as the voting trends, another reason Randy Forbes and the 4th CD are not a target, Forbes doesn't say ignorant, stupid, things. While Forbes has a reputation for being a SOB and Power Politics, he also understands that the 4th District is much more racially tolerant than the 5th CD because of the diversity the Navy brings to the Hampton Roads area, as well as the history of the area. There are also a differnt set of votes that matter to the constituents of the 4th. The dynamics are totally different. There is no comparison between the two CDs.
Virginia's 2nd, 10th, and 11th are the best prospect to pick-up seats. Another reason why the 5th is about a 10-20% chance at a pick-up this year, Democrats at the national level wrote off CDs like this one years ago and did nothing to cultivate and counter the ideological GGG message (and now Illegal Aliens) in rural America. Depending on who runs in the 4th, and this lady that is running may just get a bit of traction, the 4th CD would be a better posibility of a pick-up than the 5th, but in order to be successful in the 4th, you would need to have a base in Chesapeake to split that vote to be competative in the rest of the District.
National Democrats have not had a solid economic justice/prosperity message for rural America for years. The 5th CD isn't special, it's long odds for any Democrat, no matter how likely the chances of increasing their majorities in both the House and Senate, to win seats in these Districts when there has been no party development at the local level, no resources to build party leadership for years, and even State Parties have tended to target urban and suburban areas that are trending or swing areas rather than battle for rural America. It was simple math and geography. There was little interest in developing relationships with people in these areas, which takes time to cultivate.
That may not sound like much, but back in February, he handicapped it at 5-10%.
So, in only a few months, Perriello has doubled his chances of taking the district, even in the eyes of chspkheel.
If you recall your Walt Disney cartoons, there was this Black Stallion oozing with arrogance and pride that acted as if the rest of the horses should be thankful to be on the same track with him, to compete for second place behind him. The narrator in the cartoon goes down the list, impressive to the last, until you get to Ol' Moe, a broken down, sheepish, lackadazical, shell of a horse. No reason to be on the same race track with the rest of the field. The race starts, the Stallion is way ahead, stopping to talk witht he pretty fillies, pose for actions shots, the rest of the field bunched together in a cloud of dust, and there's Ol' Moe bringing up the rear. Somewhere along the line, all of them get tripped up (including the Stallion), and Ol' Moe trotts on by. Well, you get the picture. Ol' Moe wins by a hair (photo finish)!
What's my point? Well, everyone has a chance, even Ol' Moe (Tom Perillo). Still, really long odds even trending up to 10-13%.
You know, your thinking that a challenger in this district has a 1 in 5 chance of unseating an incumbent at this point in the cycle are pretty good odds.
Just wondering, you said you worked for Shreve. Do you think he would be doing a better job than Perriello in the Fifth?
For example, for all purposes Hilary Clinton's campaign is over. She pretty much did it to herself, and some of the latest missteps and false assertions and examples she has been using in her stump speaches, have painted her as a win at all costs, bend the truth to even lying about certain things, type of person. This becomes a race about her entitlement to the Democratic nomination and not her vision for the country or what is best for the Democratic Party. Then there is the closing of the gap in the latest polls, and there is about two weeks left until the PA Primary. There are enough people parcing this out, so why pile on?
As for Periello, I've said my piece, and based on my experience, he is not the right fit for this Congressional District. If you want to get a good preview of the results to come, just look at the Connie Brennan-Watkins Abbitt race this past fall. Brennan is a tremendous person and the better of the two, raised way more money than expected and outraise or was competative with Abbitt in money, but Abbitt is one of them and he has a 30 plus year relationship with the people he represents. Goode has been in elected office since 1973. You can't put a price on that kind of history.