the point isn't the we need a rural candidate becuase The repubs have candidates in urban/suburban Virginia, that won't win us the election. There are a LOT more votes in the DC area (33+% of electorate) as compared with the Charlottesville area (3%).

Bob McDonnell talks A LOT about his routes in Northern Virginia.

If we don't have a STRONG candidate running STRONG in NOVA at the top of the ticket, we can forget the rest. Democrats don't win in Virginia without NOVA, no matter how deep your roots are in rural Virginia.

Take a look at a map.

Excellent comment

or is it the inverse? But, whatever...

The point is that Democrats do not win in virginia unless they run strong enough OUTSIDE NOVA, or more accurately, the Democratic strongholds in the 3rd, 8th and 11th CDs.

In 2005, the Democrats ran two candidates -- Tim Kaine and Leslie Byrne -- both of whom where about equally strong in the Democratic Districts, with Kaine nabbing 65% of the vote there, and Byrne getting 64%. The reason why Kaine got elected and Byrne didn't is because she only got about 44% of the vote in GOP leaning districts, while Kaine got about 47%. This translated into a difference of 52K votes.

Deeds, BTW, "only" got 62% of the Democratic districts, but he got 45% in the non-democratic districts, and ending up losing his race by only 1,000 votes, as opposed to Byrnes's defeat by 22K votes.

That is not a knock on Leslie Byrnes, nor is it intended as a complete analysis of the vote in 2005. But this idea that the variation in Democratic strength in NOVA is going to determine the 2009 race is just, IMHO, wrong. The race will be decided by the Democratic candidate's ability to win votes elsewhere.

Or, at least that is what the numbers say.

that the converse holds true for Republicans. Lets take your argument (goVAdems) and switch it around to: Republicans don't win in Virginia without racking up massive margins in conservative suburbs outside of Richmond, in Southside, Southwest Virginia, and holding their own in places like the Shenandoah Valley, the 1st Congressional District, and portions of Hampton Roads.

Mark Warner carried the 11th, 9th, 8th, 5th, 4th, and 3rd Congressional Districts against Mark Earley who (if memory serves) was from Loudon County.

Tim Kaine carried the 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 8th, 10th, and 11th Congressional Districts against Jerry Kilgore who was most definitely from Scott County in Southwest Virginia.

The key flaw (or asset) of the Republican ticket that we have an opportunity to exploit, is that none of them hail from the traditionally conservative heartland of rural Virginia. Bob McDonnell will be leading the ticket, and as we've already established, he has ties to both Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads.

Whose strategy should we adopt? The obvious comparison here is Mark Warner's rural strategy for Creigh Deeds, Tim Kaine's urban and suburban strategy for Brian Moran. Another complicating factor will be running mates.

Unfortunately I have to close this window, but I'll come back to expand on the argument.

McDonnell: Perceived as strong in the 2nd and some parts of Northern Virginia
Bolling: Perceived as strong in the 7th CD, since he's from Hanover County.
Cuccinelli: Perceived as having no shot of actually carrying Fairfax, Alexandria, or Arlington in the election, though the combination of McDonnell's NOVA roots and Cuccinelli could be formidable.

Using Warner and Kaine as a guide, I'll ID congressional districts by their default leans. If they're included in both Kaine/Warner then they would, I hope, be considered Democratic districts. If they're not present in either, well, you get the drift... Also, the 5th goes in the tossup category because the margin of victory in Kaine's race was razor-thin there. Still, it's definitely an emerging Democratic district, and with a candidate like Tom Periello it may well become a full-fledged one!

Generic Republican Congressional Districts: 1st, 6th, 7th
Generic Democratic Congressional Districts: 11th, 8th, 3rd
Tossup Congressional Districts: 2nd, 9th, 5th, 4th, and 10th

The questions that Virginia Democrats will then have to consider: Do McDonnell and Cuccinell's combined efforts have the potential to tip the 2nd and 10th into the Republican column in the 2009 election? Could Creigh Deeds compensate by carrying some of Mark Warner's districts from 2001 and running strong in the 4th, 5th, 9th, and potentially 6th? Could Brian Moran blunt Cooch and McDonnell's effort to carry the 10th, and if so, can he draw independent and socially conservative voters to hold his own in the 4th, 9th, and bellwether 5th? Similarly, who can best appeal to Hampton Roads to blunt McDonnell's numbers in his home turf?

You are assuming the old models are still in play

They aren't any more both parties will be fighting and active in ALL regions.  

The best way to accomplish this is by having each candidate from a different area which energizes the most locations.

The perfect ticket for either party would be

A conservative from the 1st 6th 7th or A liberal from the 11th 8th 3rd to placate the base and then

2 moderates from the 2nd 9th 5th 4th or 10th (not from the same district obviously)

The independents choose the winner neither party has enough base support to win on their own.  

I would say that the 10th is the only real toss-up.

Generic Dem would be 2, 8 and 11
Generic Rep. would be 1,2,,4,6,7 and 9.

I base that only election results for statewide Virginia Offices (Gov., Lt. Gov. and AG) in 2005 and 2001.

But, of course, thats a pretty thin data set, so plenty of room for argument there.

Mark Earley, prior to his election as AG, was a long-serving State Senator from Tidewater, Chesapeake I believe.

After his loss to Warner, Earley did move to NoVa and succeeded Charles Colson of Nixon White House fame as head of a prison ministries initiative which, according to some folks I know who have very little in common with Colson or Earley in terms of political ideology, does a great service providing hope and compassion to incarcerated individuals who get too little of either from anyone of whatever political opinion, myself included.

as NOVA goes so does the Virginia election if you believe the hype out of the primary coverage by the mainstream media. The behind close doors mentality is if you can lock up NOVA you will win Statewide/National campaigns. Fact is it may be true.  

He has to win Northern Virginia.  Not to take it for granted, but the truth is, people in Fairfax think Cucinelli is a psycho.  He's not like them, just like Bob Marshall isn't your average Prince William Resident (they're anti-immigrant, not anti-gay).

A McDonnel-Cucinelli ticket is a dream only to a theocrat, which, sadly there are many of in Virginia.  They are a formidable opponent, but I wouldn't use the word "perfect" to describe them in any way.

It's such a rare occurrence, one would have thought that that would have been the headline when Bill Bolling announced for reelection, succumbing to the reality that he didn't have the organization, the financial backing, or the oratorical skills to mount a serious run for his party's nomination for governor.

Creigh Deeds is a smart guy and a fine public servant, but in this instance he'd do well to emulate Bolling's rare display of sagacity.

Deeds, who is also coming up short in a gubernatorial campaign, would be a great candidate for AG and, by running for that office, would help the Democratic Party field its strongest possible ticket in '09 and put the Attorney General's office back in the business of providing quality legal representation rather than political sound bites.