Clinton and Obama are virtually tied nationally.

Obama has bounced back in North Carolina, and now, once again appears likely to win it big, and potentially overrun any delegate gains that Hillary could make in PA.  Obama also appears to be gaining again in PA.  He should spend more time campaigning there now so he can keep her victory as small as possible.

Hillary admits once again that she hopes to turn pledged delegates:

http://blogs.abcnews.com/polit...

Does anybody else feel that these attempts are nothing but spitting on our concept of Democracy?  Man, I didn't really like Hillary before, but admittedly felt no hatred or anger.  I just thought she was a bit annoying.  Now, she seems to me to represent the worst in American politics.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talk...

Very distressing. Her campaign came dangerously close to the line on this issue with the trial balloon they had Lanny Davis float last week at Huffington Post, but when they pulled back, I had hope.

I suspect her campaign is seeing the polls Lowell cites in this diary (actually, I would guess they look at their internal polls, but I would guess they are showing basically the same thing), and is now going for broke. They have to realize that anything less than a commanding win in PA followed by an upset in NC means the end of her candidacy.

I doubt it will work.

I understand why she is doing this, but I don't condone it, and I don't defend it as just another tactic or error in judgment. This is just wrong.  

they now have bill out there saying that nh didn't follow the rules.
Rules. what are they? Oh the ones the DNC voted on and hillary doesn't want to follow.
A sad end to what might have been a fine campaign.

WE ARE VOTING FOR DELEGATES HERE FOLKS.
THE NOMINATION IS FOR

DELEGATES.

very nice.

certainly seems to have turned his poll numbers around both nationally and in specific states like PA and NC.

And Clinton has had a terrible week, as David Brooks discusses in his op-ed piece in the New York Times this morning.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03...

And it appears, based on Hillary Clinton reminding everyone that delegates elected to Denver are not necessarily pledged to their candidate, that her strategy will also consist of picking off Obama delegates that are selected based on primary and caucus results.

http://www.attytood.com/2008/0...

But I think her biggest problem right now, that really rips a hole open in her arguement that she is the "experienced" candidate, are her remarks made about her trip to Bonsia.  Her remarks were discussed throughout the morning news shows earlier today:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

But Clinton's biggest problem on the Bosnia story is from a reporter from CBS news, Sharyl Atkisson, who accompanied Clinton on her trip to Bosnia:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories...

Brooks' article doesn't even mention HRC's Bosnia fabrication, where she was caught lying so blithely it gives me shivers. That may well help Barack tip the scale or, say, come within 5% in Pennsylvania, where honesty is a trademark issue. And if there are any more incidents like this red-handed lie, she's cooked in PA. Her campaign is under such stress to find a way to win I expect she or her advisors will f--- up again soon.
Query- Does anyone know if this Barack ad is running anywhere? or just on YouTube?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

PPP Poll: Obama Opens Wide Lead in North Carolina
A new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina shows Sen. Barack Obama dramatically expanding his lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton, 55% to 34%.

"This 21 point lead is the largest he has shown in any NC polling to date, and an indication that the Wright controversy isn't causing him any long term harm at least in this state."

Key finding: "The poll also showed that a possible John Edwards endorsement wouldn't do much for Hillary Clinton's prospects in the state. 31% of voters who are either undecided or support Obama said an Edwards endorsement would make them less likely to vote for Clinton, compared to just 12% who said it would make them more likely to support her. A majority of voters, 57%, said an Edwards endorsement would have no impact on them one way or the other."

http://politicalwire.com/

From politico.com comments...

"It is getting so bad for Hillary in NC, that I am afraid the next time she visits she may have to run from the plane with her head down to get to her car in order to avoid any incoming sniper fire."

I don't know who the victor will be, probably Obama, obviously, but the path to a acceptable resolution is clear.

Let me first say I do not think this campaign is going to the convention. Everyone realizes that is an untenable result for the Democratic Party and would effectively hand the election to McCain.

Let me make a second point. I have seen a lot of talk lately asking why the "party elders" don't just step in and end it by TKO. But that ignores the basic problem the party faces: How to end a very, very close nomination battle that has become increasingly hostile without alienating a significant portion of the party's base. Like great heavyweight battles, technical decisions are unsatisfying and leave room for doubt. A KO is needed.

This battle at this point is not a question of delegates won, but a hard practical question that needs to be resolved that both reflects, as purely as possible, the true feelings of the party, and takes into account the genuine passion and commitment that each candidate's supporters brings to the table. Step in too early, and Clinton's backers feel cheated. Step in too late, and the party continues to inflict wounds on itself.

That is the reality. Does either side really want to risk the possibility of President McCain? Here, let me cite a passage about the Civil Wa -- uh, the War of Northern Agression -- from one of the best speeches in the history of the world, Lincoln's Second Inaugural Address, to make my point:

Neither party expected for the war the magnitude or the duration which it has already attained. Neither anticipated that the cause of the conflict might cease with or even before the conflict itself should cease. Each looked for an easier triumph, and a result less fundamental and astounding. Both read the same Bible and pray to the same God, and each invokes His aid against the other. It may seem strange that any men should dare to ask a just God's assistance in wringing their bread from the sweat of other men's faces, but let us judge not, that we be not judged. The prayers of both could not be answered. That of neither has been answered fully.

As with that horrible conflict, an end to our little civil war (one that obviously pales in comparison in human terms) is similarly in sight. We just need to let events play out.

The key, IMHO, is the superdelegates keeping their powder dry and moving as a bloc when the time is right.

So, when will that be? Here is how I see it:

1. First up is PA. If the margin in PA is less than 10 points, then the race will be over. At that point, the SD bloc could allow Clinton the respect to play out the string in NC, IN and OR if she promises only a positive campaign, or if she continues on a negative path, step in and hand the nomination to Obama.

2. If the margin in 10-20, the race remains in flux, but the advantage ought to go to Obama. Clinton gets a unrestricted chance to upset him in NC -- the negativity of the race to be tempered only by the respective judgments of the candidates and their staffs. (BTW, I assume if Clinton wins NC, that she will win IN as well). If this occurs, then the next stop is to bring the candidates in and figure out a resolution of the MI and FL credentials battle, somehow bringing voters from those states into the mix, with the understanding that it will be those last 4 key states -- PA, NC, MI and FL -- that will, in effect, decide this thing. Folks, forget your delegate and forget what went on up to this point. If Obama cannot carry any of those four states between now and July, the dynamic of this race has changed significantly and Clinton is our candidate. If Obama cannot beat Clinton in at least one of those states, then it is unlikely he could beat McCain.

3. If Clinton's margin in PA is 20+, then again, regardless of what has occurred up to this point, something has occured in the dynamic of the race that favors Clinton. My guess would be at the point the elders call both candidates in and basically say NC will settle the race. Again, advantage Obama, but Clinton gets the shot she deserves if she wins PA by that much.

That all tells me that the worst case scenario is the race is over at the end of June, the best case is that it winds up mid-April or early May.

Both candidates have incentive to agree to a rough scenario like this. notwithstanding the assertion of Clinton detractors, Bill and Hillary Clinton are practical politicians, not demons. They will not send the party down in flames. It doesn't make any sense.

That said, believe the worst about them and their motives, if that is how you see it, then that's how you see it, but that sort of thinking is just a rabbit hole of anger and recrimination that doesn't help your party or your country.

For his part, Obama is young. If the dynamic has in fact changed (and here let me note that I do not think it has) such that Clinton makes more sense right now, he has a future to protect and it is in his interest to accept that reality. He is what, 42 or 43. A run in 2012 or 2016 is easily within his grasp.

Anyway, that's how I see it.  

Crazy Scott usually gets these wrong - but frankly, so do the pollsters:

Pennsylvania: Clinton will win by 6% margin of popular vote and she'll get about 85 pledged delegates (compared to 73 for Obama).  Not nearly enough to put a dent in Obama's momentum.

Guam: Obama by 10% of the popular vote, giving him 6 delegates to Clinton's 3.

North Carolina: Obama will win by 22% margin of popular vote and he'll get about 25 more delegates than Clinton does in this state.

Indiana: Obama will win by 6%, and he'll pick up 4 more delegates than Clinton does in this state.

The news from Indiana and North Carolina will effectively end the campaign for Clinton, though all remaining primaries will continue to be counted.

I think that means only 4 delegates will be counted - and they'll be a 50/50 split (2 each) even though Obama will win popular vote.

Must revise estimates:

Pennsylvania: Clinton will win by only 4-6% and get only 10-13 pledged delegates more than Obama will.

Guam: I goofed - Guam has fewer delegates than I thought.

Indiana: I must revise by early guess of an Obama win here, Evan Bayh commands lots of respect in Indiana and his support for Clinton will help balance the race there.  Clinton by 4% of popular vote, and she'll get 3 more delegates than Obama.

North Carolina: Obama may do even better than previously thought...  as much as 25% margin in popular vote and 25-26 more pledged delegates.

This race is between Obama and McCain now, though I wish it were between Obama and Clinton for the general election.